You know, I have read something to that effect on TRF. Those guys have noticed that the used Rolex market has dropped substantially over the past few months. Of course, this is 100% anecdotal, but following some of the posts on that forum since around June or July, I have noticed a thread every week or so that has noted this shift. I do not know if I would chalk it up to any particular reason, I think it is more likely a combination of many factors:
- "Asian" markets drying up (probably the #1 reason--and drying up is of course relative);
- Summer / fall doldrums, I feel like things are always slower before Christmas;
- Supply / demand--when you are pumping out close to a million watches a year, supply will inevitably catch up with demand (really have no empirical evidence on this);
And just generally, and this is just my own personal theory, I feel like the "watch renaissance" has really reached a new peak. Just a general observation, it will only be a matter of time before watches become more less trendy. Further, with the information available on the interwebz, I really do think that many buyers are not just walking into their local jewelry store and picking up the first thing that catches their eye.
Once again, this is all just guesswork.
What Nuke said above. I think changing preferences also matter (but are notoriously hard to predict) - the Explorer I 114270 in particular had its proverbial day in the sun, with secondary market prices peaking and now coming down to more affordable levels. Same with Daytonas. But as to which piece will be the next to soar in the secondary market, who knows.
The perception of relative rarity, as Nuke touched on above, certainly makes some people want to place bets. It's old news by now, but I don't think it's been mentioned here in TWAT, so I'll do it: about two weeks ago Patek very quietly discontinued a bunch of references: the 5980/1a all-steel Nautilus with a chrono function, every single 5960 reference (the recently released self-winding annual calendar chrono), even the 5270 in white gold (perpetual calendar chronograph, the successor to my 3970 and the later 5970), which had only been in production since 2010 or so. Now there's all sorts of buzz about which one to snap up before secondary market prices begin to rise (because most of these models had been trading at a discount versus MSRP).
Which one will actually rise and have secondary market prices that far exceed the last known MSRP is anyone's guess.
Love the shoes/socks combo and of course the timepiece for the day. Had to be in a monkey suit again today, so will post a pic of that too - but via TapaTalk for the GIANT PICTURE WIN.