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NFL 2016-17 Thread - Page 184

post #2746 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by indesertum View Post

Odds of a pick when throwing in to traffic is higher than odds of the stoppage of a .5 yard run when your back is marshawn lynch and you have three chances to do it in hindsight or foresight.

If the ball isn't picked, they still have chances to make the play on the ground. I'm not saying I agree with the play call (or the decision by Wilson, which may be independent of the play call), but I think the universal pan the call as idiotic thing is a prime example of hindsight bias.
post #2747 of 4994
i disagree that it's hindsight bias. why not run the safest play possible? but whatever. i guess some people disagree
post #2748 of 4994

After watching the game, I walked away with the feeling of the Patriots "didn't win", rather defaulted into the winner.

 

I guess they deserved it though.  

 

Just have a hard time kicking the feeling of knowing that 9/10 times of replaying that down (drive), Seattle would have won that game.

post #2749 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by archibaldleach View Post

If the ball isn't picked, they still have chances to make the play on the ground. I'm not saying I agree with the play call (or the decision by Wilson, which may be independent of the play call), but I think the universal pan the call as idiotic thing is a prime example of hindsight bias.

You're letting your Pats fandom color your opinion of the play. It was not defensible when it was called, it's not defensible now, and it won't be defensible fifty years from now. If you're going to throw the ball, do it off play action when everybody thinks you're running Lynch. When I saw that empty backfield, I was completely dumbfounded.
post #2750 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambulance Chaser View Post

In Bill Simmons' latest mailbag, Chris from Austin had a remarkably prescient comment along these lines. About halfway down.
Quote:
Q: Lions lose in gut wrenching fashion to Cowboys.
Cowboys lose in gut wrenching fashion to Packers.
Packers lose in gut wrenching fashion to Seahawks.
Seahawks lose in gut wrenching fashion to Pats.
—Chris, Austin

that was a great prediction
post #2751 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambulance Chaser View Post

You're letting your Pats fandom color your opinion of the play. It was not defensible when it was called, it's not defensible now, and it won't be defensible fifty years from now. If you're going to throw the ball, do it off play action when everybody thinks you're running Lynch. When I saw that empty backfield, I was completely dumbfounded.

If anything, my Patriots fandon would color my opinion to make me want to rub it in Pete Carroll's face and say "that's why we fired your ass," so you're totally wrong about my bias. I'm about the last person in the world to want to defend anything done by Pete Carroll. We're all a product of our experience as sports fans and otherwise, but I've generally observed a strong hindsight bias in people. Look, I get that other people hate the play call. I've said that I don't necessarily agree with the play call, but I think the vociferous disdain for it is in part driven by hindsight bias. I don't think a single person here would have faulted the play call if it resulted in a TD pass.
post #2752 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snoogz View Post


Just have a hard time kicking the feeling of knowing that 9/10 times of replaying that down (drive), Seattle would have won that game.

I suppose, but if we're doing the 9/10 game, I'd bet that 9/10 times Brady doesn't throw that first interception, 9/10 times Seattle doesn't tie the game down by a TD with 31 seconds left in the half and 9/10 times the absurd catch made on the final drive doesn't happen (well, maybe 8/10, but the odds that a defensed pass lands in a WR's lap and he has the awareness to make the catch are low). You can't just take the last drive and ignore the rest of the game. Generally NE doesn't lose when Brady throws 4 TD passes (it has happened, but not often).

Seattle played a great game at many points, but not at enough points to come out with the W.
post #2753 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by archibaldleach View Post

If anything, my Patriots fandon would color my opinion to make me want to rub it in Pete Carroll's face and say "that's why we fired your ass," so you're totally wrong about my bias. I'm about the last person in the world to want to defend anything done by Pete Carroll. We're all a product of our experience as sports fans and otherwise, but I've generally observed a strong hindsight bias in people. Look, I get that other people hate the play call. I've said that I don't necessarily agree with the play call, but I think the vociferous disdain for it is in part driven by hindsight bias. I don't think a single person here would have faulted the play call if it resulted in a TD pass.

I think you and other Pats fans would rather the narrative be "Butler made a great play to preserve the Pats victory" rather than "Seahawks choke away victory with worst-ever call in Super Bowl history." Yes, Butler made a great play (he no doubt recognized what was coming based on the formation), but he would not have been in a position to do so had Seattle simply followed conventional wisdom and run Lynch three times.
post #2754 of 4994
And let's not forget that Seattle wouldn't have been in a position to win if not for Kearse's miracle catch.

Butler was covering Kearse on that play too making his interception ( 2 plays later ), one of the most ironic, important plays in NFL history.

Good for undrafted rookie Butler out of Western Alabama.
post #2755 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by archibaldleach View Post


I suppose, but if we're doing the 9/10 game, I'd bet that 9/10 times Brady doesn't throw that first interception, 9/10 times Seattle doesn't tie the game down by a TD with 31 seconds left in the half and 9/10 times the absurd catch made on the final drive doesn't happen (well, maybe 8/10, but the odds that a defensed pass lands in a WR's lap and he has the awareness to make the catch are low). You can't just take the last drive and ignore the rest of the game. Generally NE doesn't lose when Brady throws 4 TD passes (it has happened, but not often).

Seattle played a great game at many points, but not at enough points to come out with the W.

Well Brady's 9/10 game is much lower compared to Russell's 9/10 game career to career (percentage winnings).  When Lynch scores a TD in a game, they are 20-1 (now 20-2), in wins.  So I'll stick to my 9/10 - Seattle would have finished that drive correctly without that turnover.

 

Neither team is one I root for, but I just left the game feeling that the winner was by default.  It is what it is, Patriots can celebrate another one.

post #2756 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambulance Chaser View Post

I think you and other Pats fans would rather the narrative be "Butler made a great play to preserve the Pats victory" rather than "Seahawks choke away victory with worst-ever call in Super Bowl history." Yes, Butler made a great play (he no doubt recognized what was coming based on the formation), but he would not have been in a position to do so had Seattle simply followed conventional wisdom and run Lynch three times.

Either way the narrative is that the Pats win their 4th Superbowl. I really couldn't care less how it happens. I'll take a win no matter how ugly. It's still a win.
post #2757 of 4994
Damn, the salt is real in this thread
post #2758 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snoogz View Post

After watching the game, I walked away with the feeling of the Patriots "didn't win", rather defaulted into the winner.

I guess they deserved it though.  

Just have a hard time kicking the feeling of knowing that 9/10 times of replaying that down (drive), Seattle would have won that game.

You're a fucking dumb bitch
post #2759 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snoogz View Post

Well Brady's 9/10 game is much lower compared to Russell's 9/10 game career to career (percentage winnings).  When Lynch scores a TD in a game, they are 20-1 (now 20-2), in wins.  So I'll stick to my 9/10 - Seattle would have finished that drive correctly without that turnover.

Neither team is one I root for, but I just left the game feeling that the winner was by default.  It is what it is, Patriots can celebrate another one.

Can't look up the Patriots' record for games where Brady throws 4 TD passes, but guessing it's pretty good too. I know we've lost a couple, but I'd guess the record is pretty strong.

As far as what Seattle does on that drive, 4 tries to get 5 yards or so is probably something that favors Seattle strongly, but the rest of the game and the circumstances that got them in that position in the first place matter too.
post #2760 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhowie View Post


You're a fucking dumb bitch


Well thats a bit harsh.  But I guess bandwagoners do have feeling and emotions.

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