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NFL 2016-17 Thread - Page 176

post #2626 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nil View Post

He did it with total fumbles also a little further down at the link and came up with similar results.

The one with the chart on total fumbles that looked similar excluded teams that play indoors. I get the idea behind doing that, but I think when you only have a 32 team sample, it ends up being an oversimplification and limits the confidence one can have in any attempt at a normal distribution (which, incidentally, I am not even sure is the right way to assess fumbles). Nonetheless it was an interesting read.
post #2627 of 4994

That is the only interesting thing I have seen about this whole affair. Turnover ratio is fairly highly correlated with winning, is it not? 

post #2628 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

Turnover ratio is fairly highly correlated with winning, is it not? 

Tell that to Seattle last week!
post #2629 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nil View Post

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=2932
Much more data analysis at the link.

This is crap. First of all, the video in OP is laughable. Unless you are retarded you will be able to examine 3 balls one after the other and tell comparatively how they rank. Also, notice the data scientist's weasel qualification: "Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see...". There is no reason to believe fumbles are normally distributed. This whole article is BS.

Now I do think there is something going on with NE, but I don't accept using bad science to prove causality.
post #2630 of 4994
I'm willing to believe that the Patriots are both a dynastic team with HOF talent that doesn't need to cheat to be successful, and a chickenshit outfit that does underhanded, unsporting, and sometimes downright illegal things to pursue every little advantage.

Discovering they're cheating doesn't meant that they aren't also beating you straight up, but it does give you an extra layer of indignation when they win it all, and an extra heaping of satisfaction when they lose.

So let's take a deep breath and support the Seahawks as our last best hope for Amurrika!


God I feel dirty saying that last part. Brb going to shower
post #2631 of 4994
Weird since Ridley almost lost his job with his tendency to fumble. Edelman drops it all the time, but seems to recover his own.
post #2632 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by FENWAY View Post

Weird since Ridley almost lost his job with his tendency to fumble. Edelman drops it all the time, but seems to recover his own.


Humans are extraordinarily bad at keeping mental statistics. 

post #2633 of 4994
I do think, "You fumble, you don't play" could be a motivator.

Theoretically deflating balls should reduce passes dropped, but NE has been pretty inconsistent there and is probably about in the middle for passes dropped percentage from 2010 to 2014. Stats don't always give clear answers to support a particular narrative.
post #2634 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by archibaldleach View Post

I do think, "You fumble, you don't play" could be a motivator.

Theoretically deflating balls should reduce passes dropped, but NE has been pretty inconsistent there and is probably about in the middle for passes dropped percentage from 2010 to 2014. Stats don't always give clear answers to support a particular narrative.

 

I'm not sure I agree with this. I think dropped passes are mostly due to errors in coordination rather than a lack of grip. Close your hands too early, letting it go off your finger tips, looking upfield before securing the ball etc. 

post #2635 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by ethanm View Post

I'm not sure I agree with this. I think dropped passes are mostly due to errors in coordination rather than a lack of grip. Close your hands too early, letting it go off your finger tips, looking upfield before securing the ball etc. 

There are definitely those elements too, but there are also player error elements with fumbles. If deflated balls are easier to grip (and thus result in fewer fumbles), I would think they would also be easier to catch (resulting in fewer dropped passes).
post #2636 of 4994
Quote:
Originally Posted by archibaldleach View Post

There are definitely those elements too, but there are also player error elements with fumbles. If deflated balls are easier to grip (and thus result in fewer fumbles), I would think they would also be easier to catch (resulting in fewer dropped passes).

You are likely to have more dropped passes when you throw quick passes to the slot or into the middle which is what the Patriots do. Deflating the ball allowed them to play an extremely risky passing game with only average number of dropped balls. Or that would be the story. Not sure if you could really get away with an underweight ball for 5 years.

I wonder how they will handle the balls during the Superbowl. Will the Patriots footballs be under guard by US marshals?
post #2637 of 4994
^SB balls are always handled by the league, so there is no issues there.

An under inflated ball also doesn't travel as well so it negatively effects the passing game.
post #2638 of 4994
As AldenPyle said, Patriots don't rely on the deep ball so the underinflated ball actually helps their passing game.
post #2639 of 4994
post #2640 of 4994
The NFL has fined Marshawn Lynch for his crotch grab and threatened him with a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty if he were to do that in the Super Bowl. The NFL in all its wisdom is currently selling a Seahawks picture collage for $150 from the NFC championship game. One of the pictures is Marshawn grabbing his crotch. Could Goodell be anymore of a joke...
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