I largely agree with this statement, but you are missing the real advantage Apple maintains over the competition. It's not just quantity of apps, but the quality of the apps. Apple has the largest quantity of quality, well designed, apps on the market. Android is a clear second here in phones, but is lagging far behind Apple with tablet apps. The problem with both the Windows Phone and BB10 ecosystem is they are filled with a large percentage of poorly designed apps. Many of which you get the feeling are there simply to boost the overall numbers with little regard to the end experience provided to the consumer.
There are numerous reasons for this and I do expect Android to rabidly gain ground here, but for now it's in Apple's court.
Claiming Apple will be fucked is hyperbole, but I agree that iOS is in need of some major changes. If we don't see some with iOS 7 they risk loosing mind-share among the tech community which has a way of trickling down to the average consumer. Implementing modern gestures would be a great step, but probably not at the top of my list...
While I have not played with BB10 myself, most reviews indicate that the gesture system they implemented is in need of work. This is certainly something the company could work on improving, but the question is do they have time? While reviews have mostly been on the side of positive, few seem to recommend it over the three major competitors already established on the market. This will be reflected in sales.
You're absolutely right, and while Apple is #1 in terms of quantity of Tier 2/3 apps, BB only really needs to get those Tier 1 apps and a good number of Tier 2/3 apps. Tier 1 apps should be available on all mobile platforms, ideally, and BB is missing a huge chunk of them. By Tier 1 apps, I'm referring to FB, Twitter, Netflix, Pandora, all the major games, etc. Tier 2 and 3 are merely separated by volume of downloads * app rating.
As for Apple being fucked without a major refresh of iOS 7, I still stand behind that statement, but with the added clarification that I say this from a shareholder's perspective. Consumer sentiment regarding Apple is already starting to shift for the worse and this WILL be reflected in poorer sales moving forward if Apple doesn't spruce up their software. Consequently, the stock will plummet as far as possible till the point where value investors come into play and say enough is enough. This is where Apple is now, where the stock is massively undervalued due to poor earnings results. Whether this poorer sentiment represents a cyclical bump to be ironed out or a secular shift all falls into the hands of Apple at this point.
If iOS 7 isn't refreshingly different with excellent functionality (it just works), guaranteed, fewer people will buy it, earnings will disappoint, and the stock will drop even more. Granted, Apple will still sell millions upon millions of iPhones -- don't get me wrong -- but they'll quickly get overtaken by Samsung at that point.
Now if only I could buy shares of Samsung...