Bloody hell, fellows.
Work that is seamless or isn't noticed is the price of admission for a technician at this level. They can all do it. Making you feel something is what separates the winners from the "it's an honour just to be nominateds".
Ed, bet on whatever Weinstein is promoting. Marketers are the only ones that can truly affect the 6000 strong voting block. A great emotional back story from an actor can also do it. So can the opportunity to right a wrong.
Failing that, trust your gut. Remember in Hollywood "nobody knows anything" when it comes to predicting the success of a movie.