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Official 2012 College Football Season Thread - Page 27

post #391 of 861
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

Perhaps Oregon is better than the 2010 version, but Auburn's D wasn't anything special either and it held them firmly in check. The Ducks might beat a team like Bama, but they wouldn't score 50 or anywhere close.

I think the player talent has improved since 2010, and the biggest change is Mariota. Oregon has always been a run-heavy offense, and their rushing ability is probably even a bit better than it was in 2010 -- Barner is playing just as well as James did, and Thomas is better than Barner was at that time -- but it is possible to shut down Oregon's rushing game, which Auburn did a good job of in 2010. And I think you're right that in the month of preparation before the NCG, it's possible for a team to do that. But with a legitimately great QB, it doesn't really hurt Oregon that much anymore. Remember, Mariota has the highest passer efficiency in the entire league -- higher than either Manziel or Klein. He has lower total production because the offense is rush-heavy in most games and he's usually subbed out for the entire second-half once the game's been blown out, but throw-for-throw he's as good or better than any QB out there.

Oregon's offensive line is much better than in 2010, and the defense is much better than in 2010 (although Oregon is quite injured at the moment). I think Oregon playing Alabama would hold them to ~20 points and score closer to 40. If you shut down the run, you're on man-to-man coverage and Oregon's receivers will beat you. If you go zone defense against Oregon's spread offense to shut down the pass, you open up seams for rushing. In 2010, Oregon did not have a credible pass-threat the way they do now. Darron Thomas was good, but not great. Mariota is great.
post #392 of 861
Quote:
Originally Posted by NameBack View Post

I think the player talent has improved since 2010, and the biggest change is Mariota. Oregon has always been a run-heavy offense, and their rushing ability is probably even a bit better than it was in 2010 -- Barner is playing just as well as James did, and Thomas is better than Barner was at that time -- but it is possible to shut down Oregon's rushing game, which Auburn did a good job of in 2010. And I think you're right that in the month of preparation before the NCG, it's possible for a team to do that. But with a legitimately great QB, it doesn't really hurt Oregon that much anymore. Remember, Mariota has the highest passer efficiency in the entire league -- higher than either Manziel or Klein. He has lower total production because the offense is rush-heavy in most games and he's usually subbed out for the entire second-half once the game's been blown out, but throw-for-throw he's as good or better than any QB out there.
Oregon's offensive line is much better than in 2010, and the defense is much better than in 2010 (although Oregon is quite injured at the moment). I think Oregon playing Alabama would hold them to ~20 points and score closer to 40. If you shut down the run, you're on man-to-man coverage and Oregon's receivers will beat you. If you go zone defense against Oregon's spread offense to shut down the pass, you open up seams for rushing. In 2010, Oregon did not have a credible pass-threat the way they do now. Darron Thomas was good, but not great. Mariota is great.

While I agree with most of your analysis, I think it's too early to say Mariota is great. Nobody has shut down the Oregon run game with him as QB, so it's not really safe to say that he could handle having to be "the guy" in order to win the game. Can't really say the kid is great when he hasn't been faced with any significant adversity.
post #393 of 861
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedLantern View Post

While I agree with most of your analysis, I think it's too early to say Mariota is great. Nobody has shut down the Oregon run game with him as QB, so it's not really safe to say that he could handle having to be "the guy" in order to win the game. Can't really say the kid is great when he hasn't been faced with any significant adversity.

He might choke when it matters, but so far he aces the eyeball test. The kid is so much better of an runner AND a passer than Masoli, who was really a bull in a china shop, and D. Thomas who so slow as hell and probably predetermined his option-reads before the play began.
post #394 of 861
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedLantern View Post

While I agree with most of your analysis, I think it's too early to say Mariota is great. Nobody has shut down the Oregon run game with him as QB, so it's not really safe to say that he could handle having to be "the guy" in order to win the game. Can't really say the kid is great when he hasn't been faced with any significant adversity.

In the game against Cal they hardly relied on the run at all. Barner only rushed for like 65 yards.

I mean, I wouldn't go as far to say Cal "shut down" the run game for Oregon, but clearly Kelly decided it would be faster and easier to just let Mariota go for it, and the kid threw 6 touchdowns.

But I basically agree with you. He hasn't been truly tested in a "the game depends on it" kind of way. However that might happen with Stanford on Saturday. No 1 rush defense in the nation, but 100+ in pass defense, so there's a good chance Oregon might see its running game entirely shut out, and instead rely on Mariota to carry the offense.
post #395 of 861
I'll be very interested to see it. I'm pulling for the Furd though! But my instinct tells me that UO will steamroll Stanford.
post #396 of 861
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedLantern View Post

I'll be very interested to see it. I'm pulling for the Furd though! But my instinct tells me that UO will steamroll Stanford.

Yeah I don't think it will be close. Only chance Stanford has to keep it close is to keep Oregon's offense off the field with an effective run game, which miiiight be possible given the extensive injuries on Oregon's defense.

One thing I hate about being an Oregon fan is that even when UO is #2 in the nation, ESPN can't be bothered to cover them at all. Same problem, not quite as bad with KState. The top two teams in the nation get perfunctory coverage, and then it's back to your regularly-scheduled SEC circlejerk. They spend more time talking about FSU than they do talking about Oregon. It's fucking ridiculous.

A related symptom of ESPN's UO blindspot is their lack of interest in Mariota. Sure he has the highest QB rating in the FBS at 177, and sure he's thrown two games in a row with 80%+ accuracy and 4+ touchdowns, but he plays at Oregon so who cares.
post #397 of 861
Heard this and thought it was interesting and might suggest the SEC will remain the dominant conference for a while along with the Pac-1X... the West Coast and Southeast US are the regions experiencing population growth while the Big 10 is rapidly losing population and the industries producing big strong dudes are all but dead there too.

Just a thought.
post #398 of 861
Quote:
Originally Posted by edinatlanta View Post

Heard this and thought it was interesting and might suggest the SEC will remain the dominant conference for a while along with the Pac-1X... the West Coast and Southeast US are the regions experiencing population growth while the Big 10 is rapidly losing population and the industries producing big strong dudes are all but dead there too.
Just a thought.

The South has always had a significant demographic advantage in the much higher percentage of black people we have. It's an advantage that wasn't always used in the past, unfortunately. Even in the recent glory days of the Big Ten, Notre Dame, and Nebraska, many of their star black athletes were from the South (e.g. Tommie Frazier, Tony Rice, Tim Brown).

Population growth just reinforces that.
post #399 of 861
Also the weather is just waaaay better.
post #400 of 861
Not better than California, though.
post #401 of 861
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedLantern View Post

Not better than California, though.
Depends how far north you're talkin'.
post #402 of 861
^Truf. Though almost all of the south is unbearably hot/humid in the summer.
post #403 of 861
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedLantern View Post

^Truf. Though almost all of the south is unbearably hot/humid in the summer.
Honestly, I'd take that over snow or rain all the time.
post #404 of 861
UCLA clowning SC in the battle of LA.
post #405 of 861
Quote:
Originally Posted by ConcernedParent View Post

UCLA clowning SC in the battle of LA.
Close game.
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