#2 appears to be a certainty as the mayoral candidates have all promised to restore crime. And in other news, City unions are salivating at the departure of Bloomberg so they can finally get someone to give them six years of retroactive pay increases and fat new contracts.
"The unions want any new deal to include raises for the years since their contracts ran out. The city calculates that retroactive raises plus future raises at the rate of inflation would cost $3 billion a year—more than the annual $2.4 billion budget of the city's sanitation department."
"A mayor who signs costly contracts would face the politically fraught prospect of raising taxes, budget experts say. Pushing for big concessions risks a continued stalemate, which isn't a palatable alternative for the Democratic candidates—one of whom is likely to be the next mayor in the overwhelmingly Democratic city—who depend on union support."
And there's already a $2B hole for next fiscal year.