Originally Posted by montecristo#4
Look at the chart again. What you will actually notice is that with the exception of the Obama recession, the business cycle is being smoothed out. The most recent recessions are SHALLOWER but last LONGER. This is actually a positive thing. Steadier long term growth instead of a lot of volatile booms and busts.
The reason why the dips are getting somewhat shallower is that all the productive potential has been squeezed out of the limited number of epoch-making innovations. (Railroad, electricity, car, computer, internet). Radical change in production is the primary reason for the deep busts, so once radical innovation is gone, obviously no such "breakthroughs" will be possible. It is not coincidence that the last 3 recessions were the result of credit bubbles, rather than innovation --> once capital has run out of places to go, it can only go into speculation and bad lending.
That's exactly why the natural tendency of capitalism to stagnate will assert itself - the productive capacity is at all time high, there is no profitable outlets for capital, the only thing that is left is to keep shedding workers, cut costs, and optimize production - which in turn will only exacerbate the dip.
We already produce more than we did before the recession - with 5 millions less workers...
PS This is also why a major war with Iran is extremely likely --> war spending has remained as the only way to stimulate the economy. A rational civilization we are indeed.