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Official DNC Convention Thread - Page 48

post #706 of 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited View Post


I like that. If it is no longer to make profits or charge interest, then we could finaly start doing what actually needs to be done, rather than allocate resources to bullshit wasteful activities just because they are profitable.
post #707 of 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by Etienne View Post

BTW, just as an aside to show how difficult it is to compare performances.
Stephanie Cutter claimed that the Obama recovery was better than the Bush recovery using as a metric, IIRC, the number of jobs from valley to present time. She was wrong, as furo explained.
But using another metric, number of jobs from peak to present time, the claim would have been right. See the graphs here.
There is no legitimate reason that I can see to choose one metric over the other. Bottom line: in this instance, whatever your pre-conceived notion is, you can substantiate it with correct data. Just choose the right metric.

?

That wasn't her claim, so no, you cannot substantiate her claim with correct data.

She said, quite specifically, "the last 27 months" and compared that to the "Bush recovery" and "the Reagan recovery" - so there is no returning to any peak before 27 months.
post #708 of 930
More disappointing news today on jobs growth:

"Since the start of 2012, job growth has averaged 139,000 per month compared to an average monthly gain of 153,000 last year, the Labor Department said. The past three months, monthly job gains have averaged 94,000 compared with 95,000 a month in the second quarter and well below the average monthly gain of 225,000 in the first quarter.

"The economy just isn't growing fast enough to generate enough jobs," says economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.


Perhaps more disappointing: The labor force participation rate — the portion of the population working or in search of a job — fell to its lowest level in more than three decades.
."


jobs_aug_12.jpg

- USA Today, 7 Sep
post #709 of 930
Full metric to go with the article above, this from bls.gov - current through August 2012:

Labor_participation.jpg


Better off than we were four years ago "by any measure?"
post #710 of 930
Nice to see Obama round at the printing presses at Fort Knox again for QE3. It will be interesting to see how much debasement of the US currency the markets will allow. Add in his plans for a little constitutional adventurism with his little hit squad in the White House and you get a very worrying future for the US.

The good news is that the Dem convention was so disastrous (Clinton/Obama speeches), maladroit (G-d/Jerusalem motion) and plain scary (Granholme) that chances are they will not have four more years to wreck the USA.
post #711 of 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by meister View Post

Nice to see Obama round at the printing presses at Fort Knox again for QE3. It will be interesting to see how much debasement of the US currency the markets will allow. Add in his plans for a little constitutional adventurism with his little hit squad in the White House and you get a very worrying future for the US.
The good news is that the Dem convention was so disastrous (Clinton/Obama speeches), maladroit (G-d/Jerusalem motion) and plain scary (Granholme) that chances are they will not have four more years to wreck the USA.

Let's set things straight: currency devaluation is simply inevitable (the only other alternative is default, which is messier).
No amount of cuts could possibly make a difference in the deficit, much less the overall amount of debt. Chew on this: even if you completely eliminate all discretionary federal spending - all of it, you will still be runing about ~$700 bn annual deficit.

Taxes are going up, value of the dollar is going down. Not to worry, in the end, "the only thing that is being lost is money" (J. K. Gallbraith)
So, stop worrying and learn to love the cheapo dollar smile.gif
post #712 of 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by montecristo#4 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Etienne View Post

BTW, just as an aside to show how difficult it is to compare performances.
Stephanie Cutter claimed that the Obama recovery was better than the Bush recovery using as a metric, IIRC, the number of jobs from valley to present time. She was wrong, as furo explained.
But using another metric, number of jobs from peak to present time, the claim would have been right. See the graphs here.
There is no legitimate reason that I can see to choose one metric over the other. Bottom line: in this instance, whatever your pre-conceived notion is, you can substantiate it with correct data. Just choose the right metric.

Problem with this argument is that throughout history, the deeper the recession, the faster the recovery. Obama's "recovery" should have been much stronger and sharper. Instead we have the labor force growing faster than the number of jobs. And the jobs that we are creating are crappy McJobs.

Yep.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-scariest-jobs-chart-ever-2012-5
post #713 of 930
Quote:

You will notice that there is virtually linear relationship between time and length of recovery --> it is progressively harder and harder to climb out of recessions. With 1-2 exceptions, controlling for severity, every next recession is more severe and /or more prolonged than the one before.

Nothing surprising for those who actually understand capitalism. Bitch is running out of steam, and unless there are some radical policy changes, say "Hello!" to permanent stagnation.
post #714 of 930
More bad news for Obama, even abcnews is running reports on how shitty the economy is; there's just no hiding it - talk about taking the wind out of the sails

"The percentage of Americans in the workforce dropped to its lowest level in 31 years.

The latest numbers were "downright dismal," TD Economics senior economist James Marple said in a description echoed by many others.

The economy remains hobbled in the aftermath of the deepest recession since the 1930s and simply isn't expanding fast enough to spark more hiring. Consumers, whose spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, have been whittling down debts and spending cautiously. The government reported last week that economic growth clocked a disappointing 1.7 percent annual pace in the April-June quarter.

The economy is expected to grow at an annual rate of around 2 percent for the rest of the year, consistent with only 90,000 new jobs a month.

The disappointing numbers are a blow to President Barack Obama's re-election campaign. Unemployment is down from a peak of 10 percent in October 2009, but no incumbent president since Franklin D. Roosevelt has faced re-election with unemployment higher than 7.8 percent
."

- abc news article
post #715 of 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamSpade View Post

You will notice that there is virtually linear relationship between time and length of recovery --> it is progressively harder and harder to climb out of recessions. With 1-2 exceptions, controlling for severity, every next recession is more severe and /or more prolonged than the one before.
Nothing surprising for those who actually understand capitalism. Bitch is running out of steam, and unless there are some radical policy changes, say "Hello!" to permanent stagnation.

While your ability to stay on message is admirable, there is no definition of "vritually linear" that fits the definition you are using. The last three are the longest since WWII, which is certainly distressing, but beyond that the pattern doesn't hold up at all.
post #716 of 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamSpade View Post

You will notice that there is virtually linear relationship between time and length of recovery --> it is progressively harder and harder to climb out of recessions. With 1-2 exceptions, controlling for severity, every next recession is more severe and /or more prolonged than the one before.
Nothing surprising for those who actually understand capitalism. Bitch is running out of steam, and unless there are some radical policy changes, say "Hello!" to permanent stagnation.

Fail.

Look at the chart again. What you will actually notice is that with the exception of the Obama recession, the business cycle is being smoothed out. The most recent recessions are SHALLOWER but last LONGER. This is actually a positive thing. Steadier long term growth instead of a lot of volatile booms and busts.
post #717 of 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by montecristo#4 View Post

Fail.
Look at the chart again. What you will actually notice is that with the exception of the Obama recession, the business cycle is being smoothed out. The most recent recessions are SHALLOWER but last LONGER. This is actually a positive thing. Steadier long term growth instead of a lot of volatile booms and busts.

The reason why the dips are getting somewhat shallower is that all the productive potential has been squeezed out of the limited number of epoch-making innovations. (Railroad, electricity, car, computer, internet). Radical change in production is the primary reason for the deep busts, so once radical innovation is gone, obviously no such "breakthroughs" will be possible. It is not coincidence that the last 3 recessions were the result of credit bubbles, rather than innovation --> once capital has run out of places to go, it can only go into speculation and bad lending.

That's exactly why the natural tendency of capitalism to stagnate will assert itself - the productive capacity is at all time high, there is no profitable outlets for capital, the only thing that is left is to keep shedding workers, cut costs, and optimize production - which in turn will only exacerbate the dip.

We already produce more than we did before the recession - with 5 millions less workers...


PS This is also why a major war with Iran is extremely likely --> war spending has remained as the only way to stimulate the economy. A rational civilization we are indeed.
post #718 of 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamSpade View Post

The reason why the dips are getting somewhat shallower is that all the productive potential has been squeezed out of the limited number of epoch-making innovations. (Railroad, electricity, car, computer, internet). Radical change in production is the primary reason for the deep busts, so once radical innovation is gone, obviously no such "breakthroughs" will be possible. It is not coincidence that the last 3 recessions were the result of credit bubbles, rather than innovation --> once capital has run out of places to go, it can only go into speculation and bad lending.
That's exactly why the natural tendency of capitalism to stagnate will assert itself - the productive capacity is at all time high, there is no profitable outlets for capital, the only thing that is left is to keep shedding workers, cut costs, and optimize production - which in turn will only exacerbate the dip.
We already produce more than we did before the recession - with 5 millions less workers...
PS This is also why a major war with Iran is extremely likely --> war spending has remained as the only way to stimulate the economy. A rational civilization we are indeed.

Have you ever cited one shred of evidence to support all this bullshit?
post #719 of 930
How does one cite evidence for that which does not exist?
post #720 of 930
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamSpade View Post

The reason why the dips are getting somewhat shallower is that all the productive potential has been squeezed out of the limited number of epoch-making innovations. (Railroad, electricity, car, computer, internet). Radical change in production is the primary reason for the deep busts, so once radical innovation is gone, obviously no such "breakthroughs" will be possible. It is not coincidence that the last 3 recessions were the result of credit bubbles, rather than innovation --> once capital has run out of places to go, it can only go into speculation and bad lending.
That's exactly why the natural tendency of capitalism to stagnate will assert itself - the productive capacity is at all time high, there is no profitable outlets for capital, the only thing that is left is to keep shedding workers, cut costs, and optimize production - which in turn will only exacerbate the dip.
We already produce more than we did before the recession - with 5 millions less workers...
PS This is also why a major war with Iran is extremely likely --> war spending has remained as the only way to stimulate the economy. A rational civilization we are indeed.

This is actually probably one of the dumbest things I've read on this board, and that's saying a lot. How one can live in this day and age and completely ignore the transformative effects of innovations such as the mobile internet is beyond me. Setting aside the rest of this Marxist crap which just completely ignores both history and reality.
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