Originally Posted by Lord-Barrington
I doubt China will ever outmedal the US in a summer Olympics. The apex of their centrally organized, state funded, drug fueled (in some cases), and strategically planned medal rush was Beijing and they still couldn't dislodge the US in total medals.
To win the total medal count you need a good showing in the pool and in track. Those are two areas that the Chinese will only become competitive in if they start a wide-scale juicing program (which isn't out of the question, I might add...).
I think they're closer than you think. China already has come close by dominating a few sports - badminton, table tennis, gymnastics, diving and I may forget a sport or two. I agree with you that two sports that could swing the balance are track and swimming, and it's hard to break the American stranglehold on those two. however the Chinese are already making inroads in swimming.
so they really just need to put a shitload of money and genetic engineering in the high medal count, wide open sports like judo, wrestling, taekwondo and boxing and I think they can win the medal counts easily.
also, America's Olympic success depends on kids growing up wanting to be Michael Phelps or Gabby Douglas or Carl Lewis, and their parents basically devoting all their time and financial resources in the pursuit of that dream. I just don't see that continuing at the same levels with our economy being how it is.