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# killing Trayvon - Page 289

I just don't get the chart. What does %350 likelihood mean? What does -100% likelihood mean?
Quote:
Originally Posted by munchausen

I just don't get the chart. What does %350 likelihood mean? What does -100% likelihood mean?

LOL. I wasnt looking at the percentages, just the size of the blocks. It does seem a little incoherent.
Quote:
Originally Posted by munchausen

So someone just posted this on DU. Can anyone make any sense of this? It looks like purposeful gibberish to me, like someone is posting it to troll team Trayvon.

I posted about this earlier. The way they got those numbers is by counting Hispanic guys like these as "white" -- even though they supposedly have a hispanic category:

"Omar Bonilla White male"

"Jason Jesus Gonzalez White male"

"Marcos Santiago White male"

"Emanuel Rivera White male"

And, again, that's just from the handful I looked at.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk

That website isn't particularly reliable. Look at this case, for example:

http://tampabay.com/stand-your-ground-law/cases/case_20

Or this one:

http://tampabay.com/stand-your-ground-law/cases/case_26

Or this one:

http://tampabay.com/stand-your-ground-law/cases/case_56

Or this one:

http://tampabay.com/stand-your-ground-law/cases/case_27

And that's just from the handful I looked at.

They have a very loose definition of "white."
Quote:
Originally Posted by munchausen

I just don't get the chart. What does %350 likelihood mean? What does -100% likelihood mean?

If the original likelihood of a certain event is 0.05, -100% reduces that likelihood to 0.00 and +350% increases it to 0.225 ( 0.05 + 3.5 * ( 0.05) ).
Quote:
Originally Posted by munchausen

I just don't get the chart. What does %350 likelihood mean? What does -100% likelihood mean?

The caption is incorrect. The original chart says "compared to white on white." So 350% is 3.5 times as likely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk

The caption is incorrect. The original chart says "compared to white on white." So 350% is 3.5 times as likely.

My interpretation was that justice system conclusions regarding 'Race X on Race Y' violence deviate from the national average of all similar cases by + / - percentage. Even so, a caption would be helpful.

Therefore, suggesting that 'White on Black' SYG killings are determined to be acts of self-defense at rate which is +350% the national average means the conclusion of self-defense in 'White on Black' crimes is 4.5x as likely (not 3.5) as all relevant SYG killings, regardless of race.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hayward

Yes. And if you replace race with economic status the numbers will be similar.

I've seen data for domestic homicide in the south that SES explains it better than race but never anything about homicide in general nor on a national level. Any data?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas

AZNs win again

If I had a son he would probably look a lot like Douglas.
You guys don't understand the chart. You are arguing about "likelihoods" while it is talking about "likelyhoods." Likelyhoods are not subject to the normal laws.
Quote:

I think you're mistaken in this, absent some idiosyncracy of Florida law. Certainly that wouldn't be correct under the traditional conception of SD.

Might be the case, but the legal analyst that was on NPR said that explicitly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius

Might be the case, but the legal analyst that was on NPR said that explicitly.

Might be that NPR is trying to make a political point. That's kind of how they roll.
Quote:
Originally Posted by itsstillmatt

Might be that NPR is trying to make a political point. That's kind of how they roll.

They also said that it was fairly clear that Zimmerman ought to have been ruled not guilty under the law, so I'm not sure how that rolls with the spin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeanathonHuff

My interpretation was that justice system conclusions regarding 'Race X on Race Y' violence deviate from the national average of all similar cases by + / - percentage. Even so, a caption would be helpful.

Therefore, suggesting that 'White on Black' SYG killings are determined to be acts of self-defense at rate which is +350% the national average means the conclusion of self-defense in 'White on Black' crimes is 4.5x as likely (not 3.5) as all relevant SYG killings, regardless of race.

I've seen the original chart with the original caption. So I know I'm right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius

They also said that it was fairly clear that Zimmerman ought to have been ruled not guilty under the law, so I'm not sure how that rolls with the spin.

Two points not related. But anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by itsstillmatt

Two points not related. But anyway.

Yes, hence the "also."

As you were.
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