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post #91 of 124
Liam O, your posts here and your sw&d wawyt

confused.gif

/will post something relevant to OP ASAP
post #92 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post


Well, current life expectancy in the Western world already exceeds 75. If you break it out by race and SES it becomes higher for whites and Asians. Break it out just by SES and it becomes higher the higher up the SES you go.
Next, one usually uses a safe "spending rate" on the corpus of one's nest egg. If 100k per year were the goal one would expect to spend 4-6% (we'll use 5% as it's the mid point) so for a 100k a year cash flow expect to start with a $2 million nest egg. You have to build in an inflationary index yourself or your 100k will quickly become eroded over time.
Last, compound interest. Go look up some calculators on the Net and see what starting at age 20 with very small sums can do over the decades.
Did a similar thing. Did not really hit my stride in earnings until mid 30s.


US male 75 is a bit below average. Just an easier number. I know the SES and racial disparities (though often they're one in the same) but I intended it as an example.

 

I believe, and I may have misspoke, that the nest-egg required for a 100k a year life style was about 2 mil assuming a ten year retirement. I may be an idiot, but that seems to be what you've just said.

 

I understand how compound interest works. I also understand that things happen. Thats why its important to invest early, if you wind up unemployed for 4 years, on disability, etc. you need the money as a fallback. In his current situation, if he can bank 60k by 30, maintain 10% growth/year, and bank 5k a year thereafter he'll have enough to retire on for ten years.

 

I'm naturally a very cautious person. Probably overcautious. Probably. Thats why I've been investing since I was eleven. 

 

post #93 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by gettoasty View Post

Liam O, your posts here and your sw&d wawyt
confused.gif
/will post something relevant to OP ASAP


?

post #94 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam O View Post



US male 75 is a bit below average. Just an easier number. I know the SES and racial disparities (though often they're one in the same) but I intended it as an example.

I believe, and I may have misspoke, that the nest-egg required for a 100k a year life style was about 2 mil assuming a ten year retirement. I may be an idiot, but that seems to be what you've just said.

I understand how compound interest works. I also understand that things happen. Thats why its important to invest early, if you wind up unemployed for 4 years, on disability, etc. you need the money as a fallback. In his current situation, if he can bank 60k by 30, maintain 10% growth/year, and bank 5k a year thereafter he'll have enough to retire on for ten years.

I'm naturally a very cautious person. Probably overcautious. Probably. Thats why I've been investing since I was eleven. 

100k before or after taxes?
post #95 of 124

before. I figure if current inflation rates hold and the tax scheme here doesn't go too nuts (I average about 30% between state and federal) that'll work out to the same lifestyle as 50k does today.

post #96 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam O View Post


Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Well, current life expectancy in the Western world already exceeds 75. If you break it out by race and SES it becomes higher for whites and Asians. Break it out just by SES and it becomes higher the higher up the SES you go.

Next, one usually uses a safe "spending rate" on the corpus of one's nest egg. If 100k per year were the goal one would expect to spend 4-6% (we'll use 5% as it's the mid point) so for a 100k a year cash flow expect to start with a $2 million nest egg. You have to build in an inflationary index yourself or your 100k will quickly become eroded over time.

Last, compound interest. Go look up some calculators on the Net and see what starting at age 20 with very small sums can do over the decades.

Did a similar thing. Did not really hit my stride in earnings until mid 30s.


US male 75 is a bit below average. Just an easier number. I know the SES and racial disparities (though often they're one in the same) but I intended it as an example.

I believe, and I may have misspoke, that the nest-egg required for a 100k a year life style was about 2 mil assuming a ten year retirement. I may be an idiot, but that seems to be what you've just said.

I understand how compound interest works. I also understand that things happen. Thats why its important to invest early, if you wind up unemployed for 4 years, on disability, etc. you need the money as a fallback. In his current situation, if he can bank 60k by 30, maintain 10% growth/year, and bank 5k a year thereafter he'll have enough to retire on for ten years.

I'm naturally a very cautious person. Probably overcautious. Probably. Thats why I've been investing since I was eleven. 

I really have no idea what you are conveying in the bolded. You said perviously 100k a year for a 15 year retirement needs $1.5 million. At almost 100% liquidation rate you are correct. As I pointed out:

1) Anyone retiring at 60 in a high SES can expect a longer retirement than 15 years
2) 100k today is not 100k of buying power in 15 years.
3) One usually does not plan based on liquidation but rather a "spending rate" that preserves, even grows, corpus, thus you self index for inflation.

Also, if anyone can maintain 10% growth per year, year after year, they are financial wizards and have no need to worry about mundane things like a nest egg.
post #97 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post


I really have no idea what you are conveying in the bolded. You said perviously 100k a year for a 15 year retirement needs $1.5 million. At almost 100% liquidation rate you are correct. As I pointed out:
1) Anyone retiring at 60 in a high SES can expect a longer retirement than 15 years
2) 100k today is not 100k of buying power in 15 years.
3) One usually does not plan based on liquidation but rather a "spending rate" that preserves, even grows, corpus, thus you self index for inflation.
Also, if anyone can maintain 10% growth per year, year after year, they are financial wizards and have no need to worry about mundane things like a nest egg.


1) I'm 25 with health issues and a family life expectancy for males that is probably around 45-50 years old, regardless of lifestyle. My fiance has minimal earning potential, and if I croak at the normal age for men in my family it would be nice if I left her something.

2) That's why I'm planning on 100k. I can't conceive of spending that much money given that I'm resolved to not have children, I'm a naturally cheap bastard who is inclined to live below his means, and I plan to have my mortgage paid off by retirement. Even if that's equivalent to 50k a year I'll really be paying for taxes, utilities and groceries unless I suddenly develop an interest in "fun".

3) Hadn't thought of that. 

 

You're right. I think 5% is a sustainable number. But by setting stop-losses and doing my homework, even though I'm not that knowledgeable (and also ignoring the stocks my money manager is required to push) I've had a pretty good rate of return, which, combined with dividend payouts (a lot of how I select my buys) tend to keep me around 8-10%, though I've not been trading that long and it is certainly subject to change.

 

post #98 of 124
WBI ?

lol

you sound like some dude straight from a financial planning office or wholesaler

what a disguise
post #99 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by gettoasty View Post

WBI ?

What does this stand for?
post #100 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by sinnedk View Post

OP try banking, personal bankers start around 40K + bonus, its more sales than finance but u get to wear nice suits that you enjoy biggrin.gif

Lol try more like low 30,000s. Chase bank in particular sucks. My girl is a personal banker, horrible job. Shitty pay and even when you get promoted to assistant manager your still only pulling mid 30s. The job sucks. All they do is pressure you to get accounts and use shady tactics. Stay away.
post #101 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam O View Post



1) I'm 25 with health issues and a family life expectancy for males that is probably around 45-50 years old, regardless of lifestyle. My fiance has minimal earning potential, and if I croak at the normal age for men in my family it would be nice if I left her something.
2) That's why I'm planning on 100k. I can't conceive of spending that much money given that I'm resolved to not have children, I'm a naturally cheap bastard who is inclined to live below his means, and I plan to have my mortgage paid off by retirement. Even if that's equivalent to 50k a year I'll really be paying for taxes, utilities and groceries unless I suddenly develop an interest in "fun".
3) Hadn't thought of that. 

You're right. I think 5% is a sustainable number. But by setting stop-losses and doing my homework, even though I'm not that knowledgeable (and also ignoring the stocks my money manager is required to push) I've had a pretty good rate of return, which, combined with dividend payouts (a lot of how I select my buys) tend to keep me around 8-10%, though I've not been trading that long and it is certainly subject to change.

FWIW, high dividend paying companies are also very low growth companies. You could have done well recently, however when the economy picks back up most of those stocks are not going to do well compared to the market as a whole.
post #102 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by patrickBOOTH View Post


FWIW, high dividend paying companies are also very low growth companies. You could have done well recently, however when the economy picks back up most of those stocks are not going to do well compared to the market as a whole.


Oil MLPs tend to have the best of both worlds, albeit with a bit more volatility. I have a disproportionate amount of my portfolio in them right now, as inadvisable as that may be. 

I've always preferred dividends to rapid growth though, less chance of losing my shirt while being hands off enough that managing my portfolio doesn't become a full time job.

post #103 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam O View Post



Oil MLPs tend to have the best of both worlds, albeit with a bit more volatility. I have a disproportionate amount of my portfolio in them right now, as inadvisable as that may be. 
I've always preferred dividends to rapid growth though, less chance of losing my shirt while being hands off enough that managing my portfolio doesn't become a full time job.

That's true, there is tons of money in natural gas pipelines right now. Especially with hydrofracing and such, however you could be missing out on a lot of capital appreciation you won't see with low growth companies. It is one thing if you have tens of millions and in retirement and you want income, but you are young. Even if you die at 50, which you say there is somewhat a chance of, 25 years is a long time to withstand a volatile market, especially if you are dollar cost averaging. For somebody who says they don't want to be hands on with their porfolio you are already getting into risky business. Play too many games, you are going to get burned, trust me.
post #104 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by patrickBOOTH View Post


That's true, there is tons of money in natural gas pipelines right now. Especially with hydrofracing and such, however you could be missing out on a lot of capital appreciation you won't see with low growth companies. It is one thing if you have tens of millions and in retirement and you want income, but you are young. Even if you die at 50, which you say there is somewhat a chance of, 25 years is a long time to withstand a volatile market, especially if you are dollar cost averaging. For somebody who says they don't want to be hands on with their porfolio you are already getting into risky business. Play too many games, you are going to get burned, trust me.


I do. I'm holding them short game (with safeguards in place, sell orders etc), and I have other, more stable holdings. When I say I have a disproportionate amount invested in them, I really mean I'm holding them. For years I just held "safe" stuff, utilities, coca cola, JNJ, etc., which I still keep as at least 50% of my portfolio, as well as some non-stock investments. Last year I cashed out my IRA (kept the Roth) because the interest it was earning was a joke. Right now I'm using the money to diversify my investments because its a tough time to see any growth in the stuff I've typically put money into in the past. I distrust tech startups, I'm still on the fence about CDOs like AGNC, and I know I have a lot to learn. The reason I've been investing in pipelines is because you see the growth associated with petroleum, but because they're infrastructure there is actually something holding value if the price of oil plummets, and with all of my "riskier" investments I put a trailing stop loss between 5 and 10%, which I update bi-weekly if the price of the stock goes up.

 

If you think I'm doing something stupid, or wrong, please tell me. I'd really rather not lose my shirt, although I feel like that's unlikely given the way I've structured everything. I hope I haven't missed anything.

post #105 of 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam O View Post



I do. I'm holding them short game (with safeguards in place, sell orders etc), and I have other, more stable holdings. When I say I have a disproportionate amount invested in them, I really mean I'm holding them. For years I just held "safe" stuff, utilities, coca cola, JNJ, etc., which I still keep as at least 50% of my portfolio, as well as some non-stock investments. Last year I cashed out my IRA (kept the Roth) because the interest it was earning was a joke. Right now I'm using the money to diversify my investments because its a tough time to see any growth in the stuff I've typically put money into in the past. I distrust tech startups, I'm still on the fence about CDOs like AGNC, and I know I have a lot to learn. The reason I've been investing in pipelines is because you see the growth associated with petroleum, but because they're infrastructure there is actually something holding value if the price of oil plummets, and with all of my "riskier" investments I put a trailing stop loss between 5 and 10%, which I update bi-weekly if the price of the stock goes up.

If you think I'm doing something stupid, or wrong, please tell me. I'd really rather not lose my shirt, although I feel like that's unlikely given the way I've structured everything. I hope I haven't missed anything.

It is hard to say without really seeing what you are doing, but I think you are getting in over your head if you are not willing to devote a lot of time into it. I understand your thoughts about investing in something tangible, and I generally agree, but with regulation possibly getting tighter and tighter in the energy sector, you might strangle a lot of earnings. On one hand you have half of your portfolio in very safe things and the other half very risky business. When you get into the "trading" game, which is what you are playing here it is going to take a lot more of your time (and resources) than you think. Don't forget trading and investing is not the same thing at all. If investing is what you are doing you are overcomplicating things already. If you are trading remember, don't trade with any money you cannot easily afford to lose.
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