Originally Posted by javyn
If Paul's supporters go for Romney, which I don't think they will, he could win it.
I know you are trolling... but....
this election will be most comparable to the 2004 general when there were 120 million votes cast in the general and W won by about 3 million.
Let's say Paul keeps his 11% of the GOP primary. Looking at the 2008 GOP primary (which had much greater participation than this one, but its the most recent complete GOP primary) there were 18.8 million votes. 11% of that (which will be an incredibly incredibly generous amount and the actual number of votes will be significantly less if the primary is largely complete and a nominee is all but certain and people stay home blah blah blah) is 2.07 million. So not really much chance of Paul being kingmaker then, but yes, theoretically, if each and every little quirk happens and they all play out, Paul supporters could impact the race if.... the presidential election were determined by popular vote. Which they aren't.
Looking at the major swing states that have had their primaries, in Florida where it will really matter, Paul was a distant distant distant fourth, with about half the vote total Santorum had at 117,000. Obama won FL in 2008 by 240,000, so no. Doesn't really look like Paul will have a kingmaker role to play this time around there, strongly diminishing his chances at mattering if he won't impact Florida. Missouri is likely to be another swing state and in 08, McCain won by ~4,000 and Paul got about 31,000 in the primary (which is a poor indicator of his actual strength because they hold both primaries and caucuses this year and the primary is essentially ceremonial) so yes, if absolutely everything falls into place and all 31,000 Paul supporters stick it out and none of the other Republicans participate, yes he could be a kingmaker then but... the science says that can't happen and the odds that the race will hinge on MO are so small that you can confidently say it won't.