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Sportsbetting

post #1 of 9
7/1/11 at 4:27am
Thread Starter 
Do you let the degen gambler in you take over when you scream in front of the screen? Do you run computer algorithms constantly scanning hundreds of bookies for arbitrage opportunities?

Maybe we can have a sportsbetting thread, as I am planning to take up and track my record.

Now, is there a site where I can offer bets instead of taking them? Like bid-ask - for team A to win it's 1.21 and if I want to bet against it, it's 1.23 or something. Basically, like a derivatives market where the bookie and few active bettors make markets and degenerate gamblers give them wonga. If this doesn't exist, I might have a biz plan, but I'm sure it does and I don't know about it
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post #2 of 9
7/1/11 at 4:54am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Egert View Post
Do you let the degen gambler in you take over when you scream in front of the screen? Do you run computer algorithms constantly scanning hundreds of bookies for arbitrage opportunities?

Maybe we can have a sportsbetting thread, as I am planning to take up and track my record.

Now, is there a site where I can offer bets instead of taking them? Like bid-ask - for team A to win it's 1.21 and if I want to bet against it, it's 1.23 or something. Basically, like a derivatives market where the bookie and few active bettors make markets and degenerate gamblers give them wonga. If this doesn't exist, I might have a biz plan, but I'm sure it does and I don't know about it

I spent about 10 years heavily involved in online sportsbetting. No longer doing it but it was an interesting experience. I met many a crazy degenerate, and learned a ton.

As to your question, the answer is yes. I used to put in a lot of volume 'trading' on an online sportsbetting exchange. Which is basically what you are describing. I've been away from the scene for a year or so but I mostly used a site called "Matchbook" it had decent liquidity on most of the major sports, but not much else. Still was an amazing tool to use as you would often be able to get a better line than any other shop in vegas or offshore. In the end when you bet a lot of volume you really need to reduce the amount of vig (juice) you are paying on your bets. At -110 11/10 as most books charge, you need to hit 52.8% just to break even, which is no easy task. The less juice you pay, the lower the % you need to hit to make money, and often the less the edge you need, you can find more volume plays.

I will be happy to answer questions and contribute if people are interested.
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post #3 of 9
7/1/11 at 9:58am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Egert View Post
Do you let the degen gambler in you take over when you scream in front of the screen? Do you run computer algorithms constantly scanning hundreds of bookies for arbitrage opportunities?

Maybe we can have a sportsbetting thread, as I am planning to take up and track my record.

Now, is there a site where I can offer bets instead of taking them? Like bid-ask - for team A to win it's 1.21 and if I want to bet against it, it's 1.23 or something. Basically, like a derivatives market where the bookie and few active bettors make markets and degenerate gamblers give them wonga. If this doesn't exist, I might have a biz plan, but I'm sure it does and I don't know about it

What sport(s)? Do you think you have an edge against the market or are you going purely technical?
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post #4 of 9
7/1/11 at 12:08pm
There are a few sites that offer what you want. I'm not looking them up at work but in the UK I believe its called "Bet Fair" or something like that and in the US its "Matchbook".

I think "Matchbook" has been shut down due to low liquidity or something. Havent checked in a while but I LOVED that book for NFL action. They were simply the middle man between two parties. So I could list a $1,000 bet for the Colts +3 and set the price (Say, -115) and someone (or multiple people) could take me up on all or parts of it. you could definetly work the arbitrage angle on that site.

I currently only use 5dimes and bodog. bodog is such a square book. The lines suck, but killer props. 5 dimes has great lines and I can access from my phone easily!
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post #5 of 9
7/1/11 at 6:51pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Davidko19 View Post
There are a few sites that offer what you want. I'm not looking them up at work but in the UK I believe its called "Bet Fair" or something like that and in the US its "Matchbook".

I think "Matchbook" has been shut down due to low liquidity or something. Havent checked in a while but I LOVED that book for NFL action. They were simply the middle man between two parties. So I could list a $1,000 bet for the Colts +3 and set the price (Say, -115) and someone (or multiple people) could take me up on all or parts of it. you could definetly work the arbitrage angle on that site.

I currently only use 5dimes and bodog. bodog is such a square book. The lines suck, but killer props. 5 dimes has great lines and I can access from my phone easily!

Bodog also doesn't pay when you actually win, so be careful....

5dimes is great and one of the few offshore books I ever trusted with big amounts of $.
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post #6 of 9
7/1/11 at 8:39pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfection View Post
Can i bet on ya wife she looks like a horse

Can somebody show this adolescent the door?

Referring to your question, I think there should be a thread on sports bets in SF. However, by looking at the amount of American members on the forum, it will be nothing but Basketball, Baseball and various other American sports being tipped. I also think there are betting forums where people give each other various tips on various sports, so I don´t think you´ll be the first genius to think that one up !
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post #7 of 9
7/2/11 at 6:29am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by thatguymj View Post
I spent about 10 years heavily involved in online sportsbetting. No longer doing it but it was an interesting experience. I met many a crazy degenerate, and learned a ton.

As to your question, the answer is yes. I used to put in a lot of volume 'trading' on an online sportsbetting exchange. Which is basically what you are describing. I've been away from the scene for a year or so but I mostly used a site called "Matchbook" it had decent liquidity on most of the major sports, but not much else. Still was an amazing tool to use as you would often be able to get a better line than any other shop in vegas or offshore. In the end when you bet a lot of volume you really need to reduce the amount of vig (juice) you are paying on your bets. At -110 11/10 as most books charge, you need to hit 52.8% just to break even, which is no easy task. The less juice you pay, the lower the % you need to hit to make money, and often the less the edge you need, you can find more volume plays.

I will be happy to answer questions and contribute if people are interested.
Ok, I'll shoot some

1) Why did you quit? Did you lose your edge, or did you take your money to other ventures, or was the market too small for you?

2) What did you bet and how did you approach (no need to publish any secrets that give you an edge of course)? Did you bet on stuff you know or did you use statistics?

3) Is the pure arb even there anymore, or a retail joe like me doesn't have any edge against professional algos of the bookrunners?

4) Is there a way to make $ with a parallel to "theta scalping" in options? Like team A has a huge edge over the team B, but since the game isn't in months. The current coefficent is a lot higher than it might be just before the game due uncertainty (might be based on statistics, might be relative) - so I can "short" or lay it and wait for it to go down in order to "cover" myself?

I was thinking about practical Kelly betting and then apply it to low payout - high probability events in European football (Serie A, Scandies, Local games, FA premier etc, which I know to some extent). Now I would actually need to bet against the underdog to win, as some idiots can pull off a tie sometimes. My initial strategy would be like a penny-picking with solid risk management - what's your take on this?

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post #8 of 9
7/5/11 at 6:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Egert View Post
Ok, I'll shoot some

1) Why did you quit? Did you lose your edge, or did you take your money to other ventures, or was the market too small for you?

2) What did you bet and how did you approach (no need to publish any secrets that give you an edge of course)? Did you bet on stuff you know or did you use statistics?

3) Is the pure arb even there anymore, or a retail joe like me doesn't have any edge against professional algos of the bookrunners?

4) Is there a way to make $ with a parallel to "theta scalping" in options? Like team A has a huge edge over the team B, but since the game isn't in months. The current coefficent is a lot higher than it might be just before the game due uncertainty (might be based on statistics, might be relative) - so I can "short" or lay it and wait for it to go down in order to "cover" myself?

I was thinking about practical Kelly betting and then apply it to low payout - high probability events in European football (Serie A, Scandies, Local games, FA premier etc, which I know to some extent). Now I would actually need to bet against the underdog to win, as some idiots can pull off a tie sometimes. My initial strategy would be like a penny-picking with solid risk management - what's your take on this?



Wow. Good questions. I got your PM but I don't mind ;posting some of the stuff in public....

1. Biggest part for me was that I no longer felt my money was safe. The offshore climate is, and was, FAR too unstable for me. Too many books stiffing/slow paying and it seems to get worse and worse every year with new books spending all their deposits on advertising. Oh, and they blow whatever is left on blow and hookers down in Costa Rica. And, yes, of course I also used agents and locals, but they are not a breed of folks that I enjoy doing biz with most of the time. Getting booted/limited also sucks. There was a time when I had more outs than I could ever use, when you start winning, they vanish really quick.


2. I used a method that was neither stat based, nor using my own personal knowledge. Without getting too specific, it was a combination of 'feel' based on market movement, as well as some database analytics.

3. Not sure I understand what you're asking here... If you have tons of outs and watch the screen all day (don best, sportsoptions, etc) you can of course still find some arb positions. I will tell you this, the 'rage' among stat geeks who bet is to use prop derivatives for arbing. Usually much smaller edge so you need a ton of volume to make it profitable. (I can explain this further if you're a database type of better)

4. Yes, of course you can do that. Its just sounds like normal scalping to me. FWIW, I never believed in following Kelly Criterion too closely. I've read some interesting academic papers on kelly as applied to sportsbetting. I will see if I can find the one I'm thinking of for you.

Do you happen to read/post at any of the major sportsbetting forums? If you do, PM me and I can share some other stuff that I don't want to post here.
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post #9 of 9
7/7/11 at 4:34am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by handipeter View Post
Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome.Sports betting is illegal throughout most of the United States, common throughout much of Europe, and an everyday part of the gambling industry in Nevada. It's difficult to figure out how much money is bet on sports in the United States since the majority of it is done illegally, but experts estimate a "handle" of more than $200 billion annually..

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