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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 42

post #616 of 8748
And Carson pulls ahead in a national poll.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/27/politics/ben-carson-donald-trump-cbs-poll/index.html
post #617 of 8748
^After he spoke at the national prayer breakfast in 2013 I told a handful of coworkers he was going to be the next president. I believe only 1 out of the 6 knew who Carson was, so I'm hoping for bragging rights here.
post #618 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited View Post

^After he spoke at the national prayer breakfast in 2013 I told a handful of coworkers he was going to be the next president. I believe only 1 out of the 6 knew who Carson was, so I'm hoping for bragging rights here.

 

 

I'll bet anyone $100 that he won't be the next President.  I'm willing to bet he won't be the nominee too.

post #619 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post


I'll bet anyone $100 that he won't be the next President.  I'm willing to bet he won't be the nominee too.


Demographics being destiny, war on women, etc., left wing media etc., hasn't the GOP already lost the election?

This is Kabuki theater, is it not?

Even if Hillary is caught on tape eating kittens, performing pagan blood sacrifice, or swearing an oath to the fallen angel, the New York Times and 53 percent of the population will still vote for her. What, she's shredded about 8 secretaries, interns, and other women as bimbos, destroyed evidence, handed over national secrets, and used a non-profit to launder bribes.

Let us skip the show, and crown her as our Empress right now.
post #620 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post


Demographics being destiny, war on women, etc., left wing media etc., hasn't the GOP already lost the election?

This is Kabuki theater, is it not?

Even if Hillary is caught on tape eating kittens, performing pagan blood sacrifice, or swearing an oath to the fallen angel, the New York Times and 53 percent of the population will still vote for her. What, she's shredded about 8 secretaries, interns, and other women as bimbos, destroyed evidence, handed over national secrets, and used a non-profit to launder bribes.

Let us skip the show, and crown her as our Empress right now.

 

Obama didn't even get 53%.  Are you saying the demographics changed?  Or are you saying that the Republicans won't be able to field a candidate that Republicans will turn out to vote for which will increase that percentage?

post #621 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post


I'll bet anyone $100 that he won't be the next President.  I'm willing to bet he won't be the nominee too.

Carson has a strong Flavor of the Month feel about him. Nobody really knows what he stands for, just that he's talking loudly about abortion and a few other hot button social conservative issues. He just doesn't come off as Presidential when put to sustained exposure, and a lot of his ideas are way too crazy for even the Republican primary voters to endorse.

He's going to be the next Michelle Bachmann or Herman Cain. Peak for a month or two and then disappear, returning with a nice fat raise on his Fox News show.
post #622 of 8748
Quote:
Obama didn't even get 53%. Are you saying the demographics changed? Or are you saying that the Republicans won't be able to field a candidate that Republicans will turn out to vote for which will increase that percentage?

Sounded like a jarbled reference to Romney's 47%er claim, which never made much sense in the first place.
post #623 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

Obama didn't even get 53%.  Are you saying the demographics changed?  Or are you saying that the Republicans won't be able to field a candidate that Republicans will turn out to vote for which will increase that percentage?

I thought he got 53 percent when it was all said and done.

Obama has increased entitlements, so Democrats are even more favored now.

Plus, 53 percent of the population believes Jethro Tull killed Alexander Hamilton. So there's that.
post #624 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post

Plus, 53 percent of the population believes Jethro Tull killed Alexander Hamilton. So there's that.

53 percent of the population probably have no idea what Jethro Tull is or who Alexander Hamilton is.
post #625 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

Carson has a strong Flavor of the Month feel about him. Nobody really knows what he stands for, just that he's talking loudly about abortion and a few other hot button social conservative issues. He just doesn't come off as Presidential when put to sustained exposure, and a lot of his ideas are way too crazy for even the Republican primary voters to endorse.

He's going to be the next Michelle Bachmann or Herman Cain. Peak for a month or two and then disappear, returning with a nice fat raise on his Fox News show.

Carson polls well against Clinton for someone who is just supposed to appeal to conservatives.
post #626 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk View Post

Carson seems to poll really well against Clinton for someone who is just supposed to appeal to conservatives.

I don't know that I'd put a lot of stock in those hypothetical matchup polling numbers. Those kind of polls create such artificial scenarios that it's basically impossible to trust the results.
post #627 of 8748
"Hillary and Carson are the candidates in 2016. Which do you vote for?" Doesn't sound that artificial.

That being said, as counterintuitive as it may sound, I think Jeb Bush may have doomed Hillary. There's such visceral disgust at the thought of another Bush vs another Clinton that she may lose no matter who she runs against.
post #628 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nil View Post


53 percent of the population probably have no idea what Jethro Tull is or who Alexander Hamilton is.

 

Isn't Hamilton one of the Hilton diffusion lines?

post #629 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk View Post

"Hillary and Carson are the candidates in 2016. Which do you vote for?" Doesn't sound that artificial.

The most obviously artificial part is that they're asking the question in October of 2015. Carson's still a relative unknown, he hasn't really even gotten beaten up by other Republicans yet. Most voters aren't going to have a solid idea what he stands for, aside from generally being a Republican and an outside. Hillary's much more of a known quantity, which works against her in those kind of binary polls.

The other really nebulous factor is voter turnout. If we're being honest, not that many people are really making a decision between the (R) or (D) nominee. They're making a decision between voting and not voting. The polls force you into one bin or another, but an uninspiring candidate could lose simply from not turning out enough committed voters.

I can't find too much data on it, but they seem to get it wrong more often than right. And that's in fields with a few presumptive candidates, not the shitshow of this year's field. I bet you could find some polls showing that Herman Cain or Bachmann were polling well in a head to head against Obama in 2011, but I really doubt that would have held up.
post #630 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post


I'll bet anyone $100 that he won't be the next President.  I'm willing to bet he won't be the nominee too.

If not Carson then who? Trump will likely remain in the top 2. Any lost supporters will go to Cruz or Carson. I don't see Jeb or Rubio going anywhere. I suppose Fiorina could surprise everyone if her debate performances continue, but her last surge disappeared almost instantly.
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