or Connect
Styleforum › Forums › General › Current Events, Power and Money › Trump is #2 in GOP Field
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 361

post #5401 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoVaguy View Post


Romney was never winning at any point in 2012. LV polls can easily be distorted by enthusiasm generating moments that distort response rates.

 

Romney was steadily gaining support from the beginning of September until early October, and he was in the lead in poll averages for about 10-14 days in October before his support started falling again.

I believe the current state of the electoral map certainly favors any Democratic candidate as has been discussed in this thread multiple times.  As it stands today, Trump has to basically win every state that is currently a toss-up which includes Texas!  A four-way race though, actually hurts Hillary the most AZ switches to Trump, NM, CO, and many other western states are much closer, etc.  Now obviously all of that is within the margin of error, but ultimately the electoral map will favor the Ds at least until the next census.

 

Originally Posted by AldenPyle View Post


Which just emphasizes the point. Romney was by far the better man. Polling data showed that the electorate over-whelmingly viewed him as more qualified to be President than Obama (more qualified than the sitting President!). They just didn't like his platform. Had he run on something approaching a Bush 2004 platform in regards to entitlements, he would easily have won.

But instead of moderating on Social Security a bit, we have to vote for the reality show clown to stop the Mexicans from destroying Western Civilization or something like that.

 

Romney's Social Security plan was really moderate - raise the retirement age by about two years and people making more than $450k/yr get lower SS benefits.  Unless there was some part of the plan I was missing.

post #5402 of 8748
This Aleppo thing is pretty dumb...

Even the NYTimes doesn't actually know what it is
Quote:
Correction: September 8, 2016
An earlier version of this article misidentified the de facto capital of the Islamic State. It is Raqqa, in northern Syria, not Aleppo.

Correction: September 8, 2016
An earlier version of the above correction misidentified the Syrian capital as Aleppo. It is Damascus.
post #5403 of 8748
The NYT isn't running for president though....

I expect the president to know more than a NYT editor....
post #5404 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by venividivicibj View Post

The NYT isn't running for president though....

I expect the president to know more than a NYT editor....

He could have at least identified it as city in Syria. Getting a detail wrong isn't a big deal, having no clue about the concept is discouraging.
post #5405 of 8748
Romney has an (R) after his name so please in no way suggest he's a good guy. Dumb fuck doesn't even have a Nobel.
post #5406 of 8748
yea well everyone here heard about Aleppo guy like Johnson not even having a clue what it is is surprising and depressing to say the least
post #5407 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

Romney was steadily gaining support from the beginning of September until early October, and he was in the lead in poll averages for about 10-14 days in October before his support started falling again.

No. A number of public polls in 2012, especially Gallup*, had a lot of methodological errors (such as not contacting cell phones, not contacting latinos/Hispanics, bad LV screens, bad regional controls). RCP's final polls (all covering up to the day or 2 before the election) resulted in an average of Obama +0.7, when the actual result was Obama +3.7 (and actually 3.86% when the final count came out). Obama did not pick up 3% on the final day. He had most of them all along.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

*Gallup explained what they did wrong in 2012. Warning - PDF file:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/162887/gallup-2012-presidential-election-polling-review.aspx
post #5408 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post
 

 

As it stands today, Trump has to basically win every state that is currently a toss-up which includes Texas!

I just read yesterday that a poll had them tied in Texas, in both a two candidate and a four candidate race.  I honestly can't wrap my head around that thought; the state hasn't gone to a Democrat since Carter in 1976.

post #5409 of 8748
I like to think that NoVa had an RSS feed so that he can immediately reply to any post that happens to discuss polling.
post #5410 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

I like to think that NoVa had an RSS feed so that he can immediately reply to any post that happens to discuss polling.

I find it endlessly fascinating to see what types of posts will draw certain posters without fail.
post #5411 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by wojt View Post

yea well everyone here heard about Aleppo guy like Johnson not even having a clue what it is is surprising and depressing to say the least

new york times in a earlier edit of their article of johnson and aleppo called aleppo the ISIS capital so yeah apparently not just johnson who doesn't know what aleppo is
post #5412 of 8748
They're not the only ones. Christopher Hill (you might remember him as Obama's ambassador to Iraq) said it was the capital of ISIS, too. Gee, I wonder how Iraq fell apart!

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/sizing-up-wednesday-s-presidential-forum-760425539660
post #5413 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jr Mouse View Post


... but I'm still voting for Stein because vote your conscience and Hillary is just as evil amirite?
post #5414 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by indesertum View Post

new york times in a earlier edit of their article of johnson and aleppo called aleppo the ISIS capital so yeah apparently not just johnson who doesn't know what aleppo is

Based on their election coverage the past six months I'm shocked the NYT knows who Johnson is.
post #5415 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickCarraway View Post

Based on their election coverage the past six months I'm shocked the NYT knows who Johnson is.


Isn't he running for President or something puzzled.gifpuzzled.gifpuzzled.gif
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Current Events, Power and Money
Styleforum › Forums › General › Current Events, Power and Money › Trump is #2 in GOP Field