or Connect
Styleforum › Forums › General › Current Events, Power and Money › Trump is #2 in GOP Field
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 348

post #5206 of 8748

Trump isn't even #2 among economists.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/292338-in-shock-poll-libertarian-johnson-beats-trump-among

post #5207 of 8748
That would have been a lot better article if it had included the results of polls from previous elections.
post #5208 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

That would have been a lot better article if it had included the results of polls from previous elections.



I don't think economists were asked about Trump in other elections. :P

post #5209 of 8748
plain.gif
post #5210 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

I mean really, watch a Trump rally. "BUILD THAT WALL" turned into a rallying cry for a reason. There's a big community of people who really want to see that happen, whether it's rallying against an Other or genuine concern about immigration. These aren't people who are expecting a pivot to nuance.

The Internet alt-right community loves to think that Trump is some kind of strategic master and every action is carefully calculated. I never believed that, and the last month is really validating that sentiment. He had a decent feel for the Republican primary audience, but people seem to forget that he only won 45% of the vote and that's with the opposition conceding with several big states left. Hillary got 55% and they'd have you believe that it was a nail-biter, only won by fraud.

My in-laws are Trump supporters. These are upper middle class, graduate educated white people. They like his stance on immigration, they hate Hillary, and they think he has "good ideas on the economy." They can't explain what those ideas are, so I'm pretty sure it's mostly the other two things. There are tons of people like them, who really want to see some kind of harsh anti-immigrant measures. Deportation, a Wall, they're not so concerned about the specifics. But they're not looking for nuance.

Then that would make this electorate completely normal. Most aren't looking for nuance whether they're voting for Hillary or Trump. I always laugh when I hear commentators claim Trump is too vague, as if that's rare among politicians. This election, and as are all elections, will be about about ideology for many people. Trump's is unclear, Hillary's isn't. As I've said before, I'll take the unknown over Hillary. Trump might do something bad on an issue I care about, but it's hard to imagine it being worse than what Hillary will most certainly do on the issues I care about.

But to solve that debate a couple pages ago, yes, there were absolutely people out there who thought Trump was going to deport every single illegal in the country and had no idea that there are deportation hearings. I know plenty who voted for Trump in the primary because of his stance on immigration, and now that he's basically adopting the stance of the people they voted against (on the basis of their immigration stance) they are still going to support him. It would be the same if Hillary softened on a key position.
Edited by suited - 8/26/16 at 2:47pm
post #5211 of 8748
Trump's definitely not an unknown
post #5212 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited View Post

Then that would make this electorate completely normal. Most aren't looking for nuance whether they're voting for Hillary or Trump. I always laugh when I hear commentators claim Trump is too vague, as if that's rare among politicians. This election, and as are all elections, will be about about ideology for many people. Trump's is unclear, Hillary's isn't. As I've said before, I'll take the unknown over Hillary. Trump might do something bad on an issue I care about, but it's hard to imagine it being worse than what Hillary will most certainly do on the issues I care about.

But to solve that debate a couple pages ago, yes, there were absolutely people out there who thought Trump was going to deport every single illegal in the country and had no idea that there are deportation hearings. I know plenty who voted for Trump in the primary because of his stance on immigration, and now that he's basically adopting the stance of the people they voted against (on the basis of their immigration stance) they are still going to support him. It would be the same if Hillary softened on a key position.

This is the "I'll vote for literally anything other than a Democrat" stance. I mean, it is logically consistent. What can you say?


I don't think it's really right to say that Trump is just engaging in typical political weaseling. As far as anyone can tell, Trump doesn't stand for anything. If someone happens to dislike Democratic positions so much that they're more comfortable with literally anything else with a known quantity of being an erratic asshole, well, there you go. For everyone else, that's kind of a bold gamble.


On the immigration thing, Trump got a decent amount of support for being willing to go balls out ("not being a cuck"). Those people are really not looking for "well I'll do Obama's policy but with more energy!" Look at Coulter's rants. Given his poll numbers, he can't really afford to lose enthusiasm in that core base. They're for sure not going to vote for Hillary, but they could easily just not show up. Not sure how many people he really expects to flip by weaseling now.
post #5213 of 8748
https://streamable.com/k4jq

EDIT: better

Edited by Reggs - 8/28/16 at 10:26pm
post #5214 of 8748
Okay, that's funny shit in a racist sort of way.
post #5215 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

This is the "I'll vote for literally anything other than a Democrat" stance. I mean, it is logically consistent. What can you say?


I don't think it's really right to say that Trump is just engaging in typical political weaseling. As far as anyone can tell, Trump doesn't stand for anything. If someone happens to dislike Democratic positions so much that they're more comfortable with literally anything else with a known quantity of being an erratic asshole, well, there you go. For everyone else, that's kind of a bold gamble.


On the immigration thing, Trump got a decent amount of support for being willing to go balls out ("not being a cuck"). Those people are really not looking for "well I'll do Obama's policy but with more energy!" Look at Coulter's rants. Given his poll numbers, he can't really afford to lose enthusiasm in that core base. They're for sure not going to vote for Hillary, but they could easily just not show up. Not sure how many people he really expects to flip by weaseling now.

Before Trump won the primary I predicted here that he would do surprisingly well with the black vote. That prediction is falling flat right now, but when I made the prediction I thought Trump would do this a long time ago:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/28/trump-will-go-into-african-american-communities-to-win-minority-vote-aide-says.html

If Trump starts giving speeches to black audiences (this assumes they show up), I think he could pull off something unexpected.
post #5216 of 8748
Unexpected in what way....
post #5217 of 8748
^ No.
post #5218 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by venividivicibj View Post

Unexpected in what way....

Winning a considerably larger percentage than previous republican candidates.
post #5219 of 8748

Romney: 5%
McCain: 1%
Bush (2004): 7%

Bush (2000): 3%

Before that it is just white vs non-white which puts most Rs in the 10-15% range which is consistent with today.  So you think he's going to do better than Bush?  What's considerable?  I want details, because I'll probably take that bet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by suited View Post


Winning a considerably larger percentage than previous republican candidates.
post #5220 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post
 

Romney: 5%
McCain: 1%
Bush (2004): 7%

Bush (2000): 3%

Before that it is just white vs non-white which puts most Rs in the 10-15% range which is consistent with today.  So you think he's going to do better than Bush?  What's considerable?  I want details, because I'll probably take that bet.

Take that bet.  I'll take that bet right now.  This is not happening.

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Current Events, Power and Money
Styleforum › Forums › General › Current Events, Power and Money › Trump is #2 in GOP Field