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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 342

post #5116 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post
 

 

I don't know.  The RCP average showed a 6 point swing in about 2 weeks.  From the end of September to October 9th, Romney went from 44 to 48 and Obama went from 49 to 47.

 

If you looked at that swing, you could, unreasonably, assume a similar trend may continue.  Additionally, the RCP average for electoral votes went from +126 for Obama to +16 for Obama in two weeks.  Again, that's a signifiicant swing, and you could assume it is indicative of a trend that will continue,,


I hear you, it's not unreasonable.  I just think "landslide" is a big stretch.  Also, I have atrocious taste in outerwear.

post #5117 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

It's amazing how polls end up accurately predicting election results

 

Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

 

Romney surges ahead of Obama in the dozen swing states

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/262113-poll-romney-leaps-ahead-of-obama-in-the-swing-states

post #5118 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jr Mouse View Post


‏@laurenduca
.@realDonaldTrump Just clarifying: Mr. Brexit in the sense that you seem too xenophobic to win, & we'll spend years in recession, if you do?

 

UK unemployment claims were DOWN following the Brexit vote. 

 

Not that truth ever mattered to the Remain side....

post #5119 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickCarraway View Post

UK unemployment claims were DOWN following the Brexit vote. 

Not that truth ever mattered to the Remain side....

Unemployment and recession aren't exactly the same thing so did I miss something?
post #5120 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuuma View Post


Unemployment and recession aren't exactly the same thing so did I miss something?

 

I figured people understood the correlation between the two but then again this is a Trump thread.  Anyway....

 

Link Between Recession and Unemployment

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2077/economics/link-between-recession-and-unemployment/

post #5121 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickCarraway View Post

I figured people understood the correlation between the two but then again this is a Trump thread.  Anyway....

Link Between Recession and Unemployment



http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2077/economics/link-between-recession-and-unemployment/

Everyone who has read a fucking newspaper article knows that but they aren't the same thing....
post #5122 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by budapest12 View Post


I think that for a very short time, close to the elections, a handful of polls showed Romney even or ahead.  These weren't all reputable pollsters either (at least if you subscribe to the notion, as some do, that SOME pollsters are more inclined to favor a narrative than other pollsters).  The majority or dare I say clear majority of reputable pollsters predicted an Obama victory with some measure of confidence.  Predicting a Romney victory might not have been crazy but the landslide thing is pretty comical - especially coming from Dick Morris.  Let's also be clear that a national poll isn't nearly as good an indicator as following state polls.

I made a couple hundred bucks because I badgered some forum idiot who was predicting that Romney would win by a landslide to put his money where his mouth was. I think I got him to commit at 320 electoral votes on one of the political betting sites, which was basically mathematically implausible for Romney even if he won.




I totally forgot about it until after the election when a check showed up in the mail.
post #5123 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickCarraway View Post

Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey



http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

Romney surges ahead of Obama in the dozen swing states



http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/262113-poll-romney-leaps-ahead-of-obama-in-the-swing-states

It's pretty well known that polls aren't very useful individually, especially national polls. Looking at the aggregate numbers and applying historical weighting for the biases in each polls lets you get a pretty good picture of the results.


There's a reason sites like RCP and 538 have managed to fairly closely predict the last couple elections. And it's not because the polls are themselves forcing the results of the election.
post #5124 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickCarraway View Post

More Americans are registered Independent/Unaffiliated than are registered either R or D.  So any pollster whose poll is, say, 40% registered Democrat, 40% registered Republican, and 20% registered Ind/Una should be sued for fraud.  At best.

What if affiliated people vote at far higher rates than independent/unaffiliated? Creating a representative sample is not a single variable endeavor. At best.
post #5125 of 8748
Someone put up a naked statue of Donald Trump in Union Square today


uhoh.gifuhoh.gif
post #5126 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

What if affiliated people vote at far higher rates than independent/unaffiliated? Creating a representative sample is not a single variable endeavor. At best.

Also a lot of people are "independent" but vote nearly 100% of the time for a particular party.
post #5127 of 8748
Don't know what kind of folks follow wikileaks on Twitter but with 10,000+ responses trump is ahead in this poll

post #5128 of 8748
Trump will use that poll in his next campaign ad.
post #5129 of 8748
They should add Harambe in there. Bet he'd pull at least 20% in an online poll.
post #5130 of 8748
Or Sarah Palin as a control to see how legit this poll is.
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