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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 341

post #5101 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Odds Trump quits before 11/20?


Depends on if he can negotiate a "good deal" on a TV program.

post #5102 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by venividivicibj View Post

That is true, but the lawyer wasn't arguing their predictive value. He was literally saying they weren't behind in the polls, which is nuts. I could see them arguing confidence intervals if they were statistically 'tied' in the polls, but they're not.

The Trump campaign is in full "Baghdad Bob" mode right now.


What can they say, really? You can't come out and say the campaign is a dumpster fire. The funny ones are the network shills, especially the ones that flipped to Trump during the primaries. They're not even being paid by Trump, but they have a role to play on TV, and by God they're going to give it a go.
post #5103 of 8748
‏@realDonaldTrump
They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT!


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/766246213079498752

puzzled.gifpuzzled.gifpuzzled.gif
post #5104 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by budapest12 View Post

You looked at some polls once, found them laughable, now all polls are a biased instrument to create a pre-determined narrative.  Good for you. 
post #5105 of 8748
I'm looking forward to the next couple months of comments from Trump now that he doesn't have to be "boxed in" by his advisers who actually wanted to win an election.
post #5106 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jr Mouse View Post

‏@realDonaldTrump
They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT!


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/766246213079498752

puzzled.gifpuzzled.gifpuzzled.gif



I would interpret that to mean he is going to defy the polls, but it could also mean he is going to exit the US.

post #5107 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post



I would interpret that to mean he is going to defy the polls, but it could also mean he is going to exit the US.




‏@laurenduca
.@realDonaldTrump Just clarifying: Mr. Brexit in the sense that you seem too xenophobic to win, & we'll spend years in recession, if you do?


https://twitter.com/laurenduca/status/766259846400339968


EDIT: I wish there was a good way to embed tweets on this forum.
post #5108 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post



My polling accurately predicted (with 100% certainty) your only retort would be the same bird meme. 

post #5109 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Odds Trump quits before 11/20?


I think it's 0%.  That's not Trump.  Trump will burn the mother to the ground.  He will lose the election, refuse to concede, go on a media blitz that makes the current one pale in comparison, and become a constant voice of opposition while turning his brand into a political/media machine with Ailes (maybe, as an advisor) and Bannon (definitely). 

post #5110 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post

Polls are instrument to create fav. narrative. I looked at polls someone posted with methodology and breakdown disclosed and it was laughable. They would poll 1800 registered voters, and disclose that 950 were reg. DEMs 200-Independent and the rest REPs. What do you think the outcome of that poll will be?
 

 

 

dick-morris-on-hillary-clinton.jpg

post #5111 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rumpelstiltskin View Post
 

 

 

dick-morris-on-hillary-clinton.jpg

 

There was a point where Romney started pulling ahead and real momentum going, so it wasn't exactly crazy talk at the time (depending on when this screen shot was actually from).

post #5112 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post
 

 

There was a point where Romney started pulling ahead and real momentum going, so it wasn't exactly crazy talk at the time (depending on when this screen shot was actually from).


I think that for a very short time, close to the elections, a handful of polls showed Romney even or ahead.  These weren't all reputable pollsters either (at least if you subscribe to the notion, as some do, that SOME pollsters are more inclined to favor a narrative than other pollsters).  The majority or dare I say clear majority of reputable pollsters predicted an Obama victory with some measure of confidence.  Predicting a Romney victory might not have been crazy but the landslide thing is pretty comical - especially coming from Dick Morris.  Let's also be clear that a national poll isn't nearly as good an indicator as following state polls.

post #5113 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by budapest12 View Post


I think that for a very short time, all reputable pollsters are inclined other pollsters.  The majority or dare I say clear majority with some measure of confidence.  Predicting a Romney especially coming from Dick Morris.  Let's also be clear that a good an indicator as a following a state polls.
post #5114 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by budapest12 View Post
 


I think that for a very short time, close to the elections, a handful of polls showed Romney even or ahead.  These weren't all reputable pollsters either (at least if you subscribe to the notion, as some do, that SOME pollsters are more inclined to favor a narrative than other pollsters).  The majority or dare I say clear majority of reputable pollsters predicted an Obama victory with some measure of confidence.  Predicting a Romney victory might not have been crazy but the landslide thing is pretty comical - especially coming from Dick Morris.  Let's also be clear that a national poll isn't nearly as good an indicator as following state polls.

 

I don't know.  The RCP average showed a 6 point swing in about 2 weeks.  From the end of September to October 9th, Romney went from 44 to 48 and Obama went from 49 to 47.

 

If you looked at that swing, you could, unreasonably, assume a similar trend may continue.  Additionally, the RCP average for electoral votes went from +126 for Obama to +16 for Obama in two weeks.  Again, that's a signifiicant swing, and you could assume it is indicative of a trend that will continue,,

post #5115 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post

Polls are instrument to create fav. narrative. I looked at polls someone posted with methodology and breakdown disclosed and it was laughable. They would poll 1800 registered voters, and disclose that 950 were reg. DEMs 200-Independent and the rest REPs. What do you think the outcome of that poll will be?
I wish they would stop this charade and just select the US president in Davos.

 

More Americans are registered Independent/Unaffiliated than are registered either R or D.  So any pollster whose poll is, say, 40% registered Democrat, 40% registered Republican, and 20% registered Ind/Una should be sued for fraud.  At best.

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