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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 280

post #4186 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock View Post


If that's their takeaway, the GOP will fade into irrelevance well ahead of their (demographic-replacement driven) schedule.

Trump has unleashed a wave of populist nationalism, and that genie is not going back in the bottle.



Oh all the stupid wisdom in politics, this is up near the top for the worst.  Let's ignore that the two major parties have existed for 150 years and they have shifted positions and demographics over time.


Immigrants become more nativist the longer they have been in this country.  I have already linked to articles and studies that show third generation Americans (grandchildren of immigrants) have views and traits (such as criminal proclivity) that are indistinguishable from 4th generation and beyond.  I mean, Trumps rant about dangerous immigrants is crazy.  Native-born Americans are far more likely to commit violent crime than first generation immigrants.  If we want to be safe, statistically we should kick all the native-born citizens out.

 

foreignbornhispanicresponsesPRRIsource.jpg?uuid=bqDrzE01Eean2BPQazfyVg

post #4187 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

The point was about bringing home a message if either candidate loses. A Trump loss can be easily be attributed to "Holy hell, a lot of people really disliked Trump." There's not going to be a thousand page long autopsy report from the Republican party after the election if he loses. They're just going to say "we shouldn't run Trump again."


And like brokencycle said, I think you're giving Trump too much credit for policy initiatives. It's not like he came into the campaign with a set of policies that he had cannily assembled for the moment. He threw shit at the wall and his supporters didn't/don't pay attention to all the stuff that didn't stick.

I have paid attention and watched every GOP debate. I disagree with your suggestions. Trump kept saying the same exact thing over and over and over. Most of the things have been said in an unpleasant way or with an unpleasant tone, but none of them are random or wrong.
I watched his foreign policy speech to GOP, did you? It was the most refreshing and common sense speech I have heard in my lifetime from US political candidate of any stripe.
Iraq ? Are you really expecting detailed plan on Iraq or Syria from Trump who has never had security briefing in his life?
post #4188 of 8748
I think they're starting to realize his chances of winning are better than they thought.

post #4189 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post

I have paid attention and watched every GOP debate. I disagree with your suggestions. Trump kept saying the same exact thing over and over and over. Most of the things have been said in an unpleasant way or with an unpleasant tone, but none of them are random or wrong.
Trump has formulated most of his policies on the fly in rallies. He's said all kinds of weird shit. It's written down for your perusal if you care to read it. The stuff that gets a response has become official Trump policy. He basically crowd-sourced a campaign strategy.
Quote:
I watched his foreign policy speech to GOP, did you? It was the most refreshing and common sense speech I have heard in my lifetime from US political candidate of any stripe.

His foreign policy speech was noteworthy because he was one of his first attempts to look and sound "Presidential." That was when he brought in Manafort. It certainly sounds reasonable on first skim, I'll give it that much.
Quote:
Iraq ? Are you really expecting detailed plan on Iraq or Syria from Trump who has never had security briefing in his life?

Am I expecting the candidate for President of the United States who says he's the only person who can save us from this supposed terrifying world that he sees to actually have some kind of plan to address those problems? Uhhhh.....yes? It doesn't need to be something he formulated, but he shouldn't be able to just point out vague issues, say that he's awesome and he'll fix them and then get credit for it without having an actual plan.
post #4190 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited View Post

I think they're starting to realize his chances of winning are better than they thought.

Who is "they"?
post #4191 of 8748
There is exactly zero chance the GOP goes back to the status quo after this and runs another Romney.

On the off-chance a hawkish neoliberal wins the primary, a 3rd party would emerge for the general and take >10 percent of the vote.
post #4192 of 8748
Well, the GOP never really wanted to run Romney. Too bad as now you fuckers have Trump.
post #4193 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

So this is rich: http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36862552

Headline is "Hillary Hate is Viscous."

Because, you know, there's no Trump hate.

do you think the democratic convention will be a foaming at the mouth lynch mob slash death cult expo ? everything was either about locking up hillary or that everyone is out to kill you with a nazi salute thrown in for good measure. i have zero interest in the DNC but it's hard to imagine it devolving to such a primal display of rage. then again she was going off about pokemon go to the polls which is in its own way obsene and torturous
post #4194 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock View Post

There is exactly zero chance the GOP goes back to the status quo after this and runs another Romney.

On the off-chance a hawkish neoliberal wins the primary, a 3rd party would emerge for the general and take >10 percent of the vote.

They didn't want to run another Romney this time either. That was the whole point of the autopsy report after Romney lost. The party establishment wanted to branch out, sell a broader base on Republican ideals.


Now they have Trump, who is pretty much completely off the reservation in terms of "Republican ideals." Where they go post-Trump is going to be very interesting. Who leads that party?
post #4195 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

do you think the democratic convention will be a foaming at the mouth lynch mob slash death cult expo ? everything was either about locking up hillary or that everyone is out to kill you with a nazi salute thrown in for good measure. i have zero interest in the DNC but it's hard to imagine it devolving to such a primal display of rage. then again she was going off about pokemon go to the polls which is in its own way obsene and torturous

They're obviously going to bash the hell out of Trump, but it's going to be the usual language and conventional tactics. You might see liberals howling for Trump's blood on the streets in protests, but it would be very unusual to see it on the convention floor. It was pretty jarring to see at the RNC.

They really hate Hillary, kind of out of proportion to anything she's actually done. I can understand thinking she's not fit to be President, but hatred seems over the top.
post #4196 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

Where they go post-Trump is going to be very interesting.

Well, the Senate with David Duke is a start. I'm sure "Grand Wizard" on the resume has a fantastic ring for a base of the easily enchanted.
post #4197 of 8748
Trump is still about 3 points from his highest in the RCP average, and he hasn't closed the gap at all in the past 7 days. I'm predicting the polls stabilize after the conventions with Hillary back around 46-47 and Trump stuck around his current levels, 42-43.

The most noticeable effect in polling from the convention is that Hillary supporters are more likely to vote in November than at the beginning of the week.
post #4198 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

Who is "they"?

Huffington Post, i.e., the far left.
post #4199 of 8748
So what's everyone's opinion at this point of the race? Will Trump be out next POTUS?
post #4200 of 8748
One of my best pals is a veteran professor of political science. He think Trump has a fair chance of winning. FWIW, he thought it very probable if Trump wins that we could expect the Capitol building to burn within 90 days!
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