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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 171

post #2551 of 8748
HB raises a good point about gas and I think we can assume other things like coal powered electricity would have been taxed to death at this point. Folks also forget Clinton's much bragged about dotcom prosperity got handed to Bush as the dotcom bubble going "kaboom." I think we can safely say Gore would not have partnered with Greenspan for that soft landing. We probably would have seen economic hardship equal to, but prior to, the housing collapse without experiencing the soaring wealth of he intervening years. I'm sure 9/11 would have happened around the same time but in the middle of a huge recession. Times would have been interesting and a POTUS is always tempted to war when economic times are tough.
post #2552 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited View Post

They're full of shit.

About voting for Hillary? Probably. But staying home is going to look appealing I'd imagine. Letting Hillary ride for four years and then having a more mainstream Republican challenger is not the worst outcome in the universe.


Maybe Trump doesn't need all the typical Republican votes if he can pull enough people who typically don't vote.
post #2553 of 8748
While I think some interesting cross voting is going to happen this November I also think anyone the believes Trump has a chance in hell is delusional.
post #2554 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

HB raises a good point about gas and I think we can assume other things like coal powered electricity would have been taxed to death at this point. Folks also forget Clinton's much bragged about dotcom prosperity got handed to Bush as the dotcom bubble going "kaboom." I think we can safely say Gore would not have partnered with Greenspan for that soft landing. We probably would have seen economic hardship equal to, but prior to, the housing collapse without experiencing the soaring wealth of he intervening years. I'm sure 9/11 would have happened around the same time but in the middle of a huge recession. Times would have been interesting and a POTUS is always tempted to war when economic times are tough.

Coal is getting killed by natural gas anyway, so not much of a difference there.


It's hard to really gauge the impact of the Iraq war, but it seems to be huge. Without it, we almost certainly don't have ISIS, the Syria crisis, probably no refugee crisis in Europe. Maybe not even the whole Arab Spring, for good and (mostly) bad. That's a couple trillion in US debt too.




Also, $1.7 trillion for Iraq by itself? Holy shit. Didn't realize it was that much. 10% of the whole debt, and I'm not sure that includes rebuilding etc.
post #2555 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

While I think some interesting cross voting is going to happen this November I also think anyone the believes Trump has a chance in hell is delusional.

 

Scott Adams called the Trump victory early in the process, and now  he's calling a landslide general.  We'll see!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post


Coal is getting killed by natural gas anyway, so not much of a difference there.


It's hard to really gauge the impact of the Iraq war, but it seems to be huge. Without it, we almost certainly don't have ISIS, the Syria crisis, probably no refugee crisis in Europe. Maybe not even the whole Arab Spring, for good and (mostly) bad. That's a couple trillion in US debt too.




Also, $1.7 trillion for Iraq by itself? Holy shit. Didn't realize it was that much. 10% of the whole debt, and I'm not sure that includes rebuilding etc.

 

Again though, the coal thing would have been accelerated in HB and Pio's world.  I still think the Republican Congress would have prevented most of that.  As for the Iraq War, if it wasn't Iraq, it would have been somewhere else.  No modern Dem has kept us out of foreign wars/interventionalism.

 


Let's also not forget the first lady impact.  I wouldn't be surprised if Tipper used her post to go on a crusade against video game violence (or movies or comic books or whatever).

post #2556 of 8748
Holy shit, Tipper as FL. That would have been awesome. Can you see the Dee Snyder rants?

Hard to tell what type of world we'd be in but I do think my scenario of deep recession in Gore's first couple of years and a 9/11 type event happening in that time would have injected some pretty big chaos into the world too. Remember, a way to take down the Twin Towers was in the works from the time of the first attempt in the 90s under Clinton. Those people that think another Towers attack only happened because Bush was elected (selected!) are crazy too.
post #2557 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

Scott Adams called the Trump victory early in the process, and now  he's calling a landslide general.  We'll see!

I don't know that I really buy Adams analysis, but yeah, we'll see. Trump defied a lot of predictions because the statistics suck for primaries, but they're a LOT more reliable for generals.
Quote:
Again though, the coal thing would have been accelerated in HB and Pio's world.  I still think the Republican Congress would have prevented most of that.  As for the Iraq War, if it wasn't Iraq, it would have been somewhere else.  No modern Dem has kept us out of foreign wars/interventionalism.
Assuming 9/11 still happened, or even if it was prevented, Afghanistan seems like it would have been a suitable target. Two wars is just greedy if you're wagging the dog.
Quote:
Let's also not forget the first lady impact.  I wouldn't be surprised if Tipper used her post to go on a crusade against video game violence (or movies or comic books or whatever).

It would have been interesting to see how "liberal" culture evolved under a Democratic administration instead of Bush. Would we have gotten the same kind of "PC-Culture" on the fringes, the same intolerant progressive wing?
post #2558 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

While I think some interesting cross voting is going to happen this November I also think anyone the believes Trump has a chance in hell is delusional.

The people saying Trump will win a landslide are just insane, I don't know how even the most rabid partisan could believe that. I guess they've just bought into the mystique a little too much.

I wouldn't put money down on a Democratic win, but it's difficult to envision how Trump repeats the process of winning the primaries on a larger scale with a much more diverse electorate. Even against Hillary.
post #2559 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

While I think some interesting cross voting is going to happen this November I also think anyone the believes Trump has a chance in hell is delusional.

Scott Adams called the Trump victory early in the process, and now  he's calling a landslide general.  We'll see!

Ann Coulter also called the Trump victory very early on and now calling a landslide general.

So did the Simpsons
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/comic-riffs/wp/2016/03/18/the-simpsons-predicted-a-trump-presidency-16-years-ago-tomorrow-the-writer-explains-why/?tid=a_inl
post #2560 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

Scott Adams called the Trump victory early in the process, and now  he's calling a landslide general.  We'll see!

Scott Adams is a smart man.

The guy was never on my radar before. I had no idea who he was until he popped up in some interview. His blog is worth checking out: http://blog.dilbert.com/
post #2561 of 8748
Trump will not release his tax returns before November,

Trump resists calls to disclose his tax returns


http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/11/politics/donald-trump-tax-returns/

This could be due to Trump being worth much less than he claims, trying to hide how low a tax rate he pays, or something else embarrassing ( like never giving anything to charity, personally ).

What do you think?
post #2562 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by rnoldh View Post

Trump will not release his tax returns before November,

Trump resists calls to disclose his tax returns

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/11/politics/donald-trump-tax-returns/

This could be due to Trump being worth much less than he claims, trying to hide how low a tax rate he pays, or something else embarrassing ( like never giving anything to charity, personally ).

What do you think?

 

It is almost certainly the first.

 

Hiding tax rate - Bernie Sanders pays a tiny fraction of his income in taxes and still rallies on tax rates.  He takes huge deductions, but claims they need to be eliminated.  Trump also has called for higher tax rates on the rich, so it could be used to reinforce his point

 

Embarrassing/charity - charity definitely wouldn't be it.  Obama only gave like 5% of income to charity.  The only embarrassing thing might be some business losses which weakens his image of being this master businessman that only makes good deals.  However, he happily admits to manipulating bankruptcy law.

post #2563 of 8748
You know he has to do a lot of creative stuff to avoid paying taxes. Even though I don't find anything wrong with that I can imagine people would use it to make jabs at him when talking about corporate responsibility and tax plans.
post #2564 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

About voting for Hillary?

Yeah, and I also think "not voting" is mostly a bluff.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

Letting Hillary ride for four years and then having a more mainstream Republican challenger is not the worst outcome in the universe.

I don't think a mainstream candidate can beat Hillary in 2016, and wouldn't be able to oust her when she's an incumbent. Trump isn't my ideal choice but he has the best chance of beating Hillary. Romney couldn't beat Obama, neither could McCain. Rubio and Kasich would probably take an approach similar to what was tried against Obama. Kasich is more personable than Romney bot, but too nice to beat Hillary. In the end, everything that people said would sink Trump will be what beats Hillary.
post #2565 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited View Post

Yeah, and I also think "not voting" is mostly a bluff.
From the Senators and whatnot, maybe. From the actual mainstream Republican voters, I don't know. People either love or hate Trump. A lot of Republicans are deeply antipathetic to Trump. It's not hard to see quite a few of them staying home.

I mean, we readily accept that some Democratic voters aren't going to turn up for Hillary. Why would it be hard to believe that Republicans aren't going to show up for Trump?
Quote:
I don't think a mainstream candidate can beat Hillary in 2016, and wouldn't be able to oust her when she's an incumbent. Trump isn't my ideal choice but he has the best chance of beating Hillary. Romney couldn't beat Obama, neither could McCain. Rubio and Kasich would probably take an approach similar to what was tried against Obama. Kasich is more personable than Romney bot, but too nice to beat Hillary. In the end, everything that people said would sink Trump will be what beats Hillary.
Well, Hillary couldn't beat Obama in 2008 either.


If there was a year where a decent mainstream Republican candidate could win, it would be against Hillary. Trump's definitely going to scramble things up, but I don't know if that was the safest bet. You also have to wonder wtf the future of the party looks like if he wins.
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