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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 160

post #2386 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teger View Post

No. Which candidate could realistically do that? You'd need someone who could win traditionally blue states while not winning red states?

Colin Powell. BAM!

Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

you see this is where i think there is no equivalency. the bernie supporters complaining about jobs don't blame the foreigners but the banks/greedy corporations for exporting and outsourcing. this is different than blaming immigrants for coming in and taking jobs. i could be mistaken, because i don't pay attention to the particulars of useless arguments anyway.

So you've completely ignored this election cycle? rimshot.gif
post #2387 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rumpelstiltskin 
Minorities will turn out in droves for Hilary because of Trump
Depends which minority and where,Muslims love hillary for she has neoconservative support and plans to continue the legacy of having neocons as policy makers and f up middle east. If she get elected will be the final straw also for middle class continuing wars where most of middle class americans get the bottom of the barrel. Or maybe they will like her for advancing further the neoliberal policies on steroid and making sure the revolving doors become the new norm.
At last trump has balls to say the truth. She will be digging the grave for democrats if get elected for at last good 8 years ,minimum.
Edited by ilsartodoro - 5/4/16 at 11:58am
post #2388 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ataturk View Post

Also, here's the CNN exit polling from the 2012 presidential election (one the Democrats won, obviously):




Here's the problem: I assume this is based on national data, right? National data is irrelevant. It's like Hilary (or even Trump's) favorability ratings -- who cares? What the election is about - just like the past elections - is the ability of candidates to win states that will realistically be in play. Is Trump going to win Mass. barring some unforseen disaster? No. I also don't see any prospect of Trump taking a state like PA or MI. So what it comes down to is can Trump win FL, OH, NC, VA, etc.? I think VA is already blue, and I don't see him winning FL. He might take Ohio but it's not enough.
post #2389 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rumpelstiltskin View Post

I think you are smoking.  Trump does not have the temperament not does he have the time to to buckle down and actually learn the issues well enough debate Hillary. The debates will highlight Trump's glaring deficiencies. He's going to be a male Sarah Palin with better 1 liners. 

This is insane. His temperament is why he's so popular. He's also a smart guy and has had a lot of time to study up on any issue that they will talk about.

Don't you think glaring deficiencies would be front and center now after all the republican debates? You can name a few and nit pick, but in the end Trump just keeps on advancing. The comparison to Sarah Palin is ridiculous.

Mark my words. The debates with Clinton will be brutal and he will win opinion polls by landslides. She has so much dirt he can bring up. It's going to be a bloodbath. Feel free to quote this post after the first debate.
post #2390 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teger View Post

I also don't see any prospect of Trump taking a state like PA or MI.

Really? I've read PA described as "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and Alabama in between." Lots of potential Trump voters there. And remember that Clinton lost MI to Sanders, whose shares a lot of economic views with Trump.
post #2391 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambulance Chaser View Post

Really? I've read PA described as "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and Alabama in between." Lots of potential Trump voters there. And remember that Clinton lost MI to Sanders, whose shares a lot of economic views with Trump.

Yup, MI going Hillary is not a done deal. Additionally, once you get outside of Detroit and Flint, the state is heavy (R).
post #2392 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post


Don't be surprised if more than a few Bernie supporters go for Trump. I still maintain part of Bernie's appeal was that he spouted all kinds of protectionist/anti-globalist rhetoric too and that's Trump's forte. As much as the MSM/left (@erictheobscure) don't like to admit it a material number of likely Dem voters are very protectionist/anti-globalism. This means Trump just might get their vote if that is their priority.

 

That's a point I have made before.  I have said numerous times that Trump's positions and Bernie's positions are very similar.  The tax issue is a bit different, but Trump was for raising taxes on the rich.  They both sling very populist messages - less immigration, less global trade, higher taxes on the rich, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post


this isn't an unfair assessment, but i think the reasoning behind the positions are very likely to be unrelated.

 

I think the reasoning is similar.  They're both populist positions about how the working class is getting screwed over.  Obviously Bernie goes further and wants to make the US like his fantasy version of Denmark.  Trump's version comes from a more base instinct of the people that don't look like you are screwing you over, but the anti-trade rhetoric of Bernie isn't much different (it just is pointed more at the rich rather than the Chinese or Mexicans).

post #2393 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teger View Post

Here's the problem: I assume this is based on national data, right? National data is irrelevant. It's like Hilary (or even Trump's) favorability ratings -- who cares? What the election is about - just like the past elections - is the ability of candidates to win states that will realistically be in play.

I don't really disagree; I was just responding to specific claims that were made by another poster.

Regardless, I think there's something to be said for the argument that Trump has more fundamental potential to steal democrat voters than Hillary does GOP ones -- based on the positions he's taken, I mean. He's certainly much more like a Democrat than Hillary is like a Republican.

Whether that actually happens or not remains to be seen, though I tend to agree that it looks unlikely.
post #2394 of 8748
well then anyone interested in some friendly election wagers?

i'd wager:

clinton takes MI and PA
clinton wins VA by at least 5 points
post #2395 of 8748
Pennsylvania is a steeltown, a steamtown, an Amish-town, and a Sewer-of-shit-and-piss-and-cheesesteak-town.
post #2396 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harold falcon View Post

Pennsylvania is a steeltown, a steamtown, an Amish-town, and a Sewer-of-shit-and-piss-and-cheesesteak-town.

 

Any state  that allows Harv to practice law is a wild card.

post #2397 of 8748
They could have chosen any picture for this article, but look what they chose:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/john-kasich-campaign-latest-news.html

103606198-RTX2A9LA.530x298.jpg?v=1462376465


Tump said he "defined" Bush early in the debate and if he was not in the race Bush would have won. Trump is very good at defining people. Branding Bush as "low-energy" was a kill shot. It's going to be a cakewalk to define hilary as crooked when they debate. There is so much ammunition he can use.
post #2398 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reggs View Post

They could have chosen any picture for this article, but look what they chose:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/john-kasich-campaign-latest-news.html

103606198-RTX2A9LA.530x298.jpg?v=1462376465


Tump said he "defined" Bush early in the debate and if he was not in the race Bush would have won. Trump is very good at defining people. It's going to be a cakewalk to define hilary as crooked when they debate. There is so much ammunition he can use.

hillary has already been defined though. she's been on the national stage for 20 years.
post #2399 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teger View Post

hillary has already been defined though. she's been on the national stage for 20 years.

No different from the other candidates Trump already defeated.

Do you think anyone who is supporting Trump today will jump ship and end up voting for Hillary? I think the number of those people is insanely low. Are there people who support Bernie or Hillary today who you see jumping ship and voting for Trump? I think there a lot of people who will. Trump has not really lost any ground so far. It's unlikely he will going into the general election.
post #2400 of 8748
Interesting graph. This is for spending through the end of March for the given year.


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