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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 159

post #2371 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by JLibourel View Post

One of my oldest friends is a long-time professor of political science. He predicts when Trump goes one on one against Hillary, he's just going to chew her up and spit her out.

At the start of this election cycle, many of my friends and I had negative perceptions of Trump--greedy egomaniac, reality show buffoon, etc.--but in the end almost all my friends and I are supporting the Donald...or "The Leader" as we like to call him in my household.

I think this will absolutely be the case! I expect the debates just cut Clinton down in a very fair but brutal way.

One thing that I've noticed throughout all the debates is that no one is as "in the moment" and aware of the current conversation like Trump is. I think a lot of the candidates go into debates with their canned statement about all the popular subjects and their whole agenda is just to say the canned statement. Trump is simply more fluid and persuasive than any of them. The timing and delivery of his "...only Rosie O'Donnell" took more agility/wit than most people have and completely took the wind out of what was otherwise a very slam dump gotcha question. Clinton does not debate well and her competition has been very weak. When I see her debate with Sanders he misses so many opportunities to lay into her that Trump will not miss. The debates are going to be absolutely brutal for her.

No one who supports Trump now is ever going to jump ship and start to support Hillary. The reverse can't be said for Hillary supporters. I feel more sure about what the outcome of this race will be than I do any past presidential races since I've been able to vote, and I'm 31.
post #2372 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Don't be surprised if more than a few Bernie supporters go for Trump. I still maintain part of Bernie's appeal was that he spouted all kinds of protectionist/anti-globalist rhetoric too and that's Trump's forte. As much as the MSM/left (@erictheobscure) don't like to admit it a material number of likely Dem voters are very protectionist/anti-globalism. This means Trump just might get their vote if that is their priority.

What I find more interesting is that I have been seeing anecdotal (yeah I know) evidence from people you'd call SJW disliking Bernie and finding him lacking even compared to Hillary. The real global divide is here is between a new "left" unwilling to go from singular, community/group based struggles to a universal, socialist, global one. The 80s Foucaldian turn has basically made a large part of the more radical left completely disenfranchised from older far-left inclusive ideals, exactly at the time where capital has mostly transitioned to a non western-centric, no western democracy needed, globalized strategy. The Bern is just too old school far-left and his civil rights or whatever credentials can never be enough for those new activists.
post #2373 of 8748
FWIW, I bet Hilary takes Virginia by 7 points, if not more. Trump is poison to the Republican voters in NoVA (who voted for Kasich) and the state is already blue.
post #2374 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited View Post

The only path to victory Hillary has is through gender and racial division. Minorities will not turn out for Hillary the way they did for Obama, particularly black Americans. Trump will do surprisingly well with black voters. Hillary's race card will work to some degree with Hispanics, but not as well as people think.

Trump's biggest hurdle will be with women, but he'll overcome that, too. Despite what some people think, Trump has the ability to be appeal to voters on many levels. Hillary does not.


Minorities will turn out in droves for Hilary because of Trump

post #2375 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reggs View Post

I think this will absolutely be the case! I expect the debates just cut Clinton down in a very fair but brutal way.

 

I think you are smoking.  Trump does not have the temperament not does he have the time to to buckle down and actually learn the issues well enough debate Hillary. The debates will highlight Trump's glaring deficiencies. He's going to be a male Sarah Palin with better 1 liners. 
Edited by Rumpelstiltskin - 5/4/16 at 10:03am
post #2376 of 8748
Anyone think we might see a Republican establishment-backed third-party candidate jump into the race? This candidate doesn't need to win, he/she just needs to prevent Clinton from getting 270 electoral votes. If Clinton is sitting at 269, the House will decide the election.
post #2377 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambulance Chaser View Post

Anyone think we might see a Republican establishment-backed third-party candidate jump into the race? This candidate doesn't need to win, he/she just needs to prevent Clinton from getting 270 electoral votes. If Clinton is sitting at 269, the House will decide the election.

No. Which candidate could realistically do that? You'd need someone who could win traditionally blue states while not winning red states?
post #2378 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Some for similar reasons, i.e. "furriners after my job!" and some for typical reasons a leftie/Dem would give. A black guy working the line in Detroit can be just as xenophobic as a white guy working the line. Heard it many times firsthand.

you see this is where i think there is no equivalency. the bernie supporters complaining about jobs don't blame the foreigners but the banks/greedy corporations for exporting and outsourcing. this is different than blaming immigrants for coming in and taking jobs. i could be mistaken, because i don't pay attention to the particulars of useless arguments anyway.
post #2379 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambulance Chaser View Post

Anyone think we might see a Republican establishment-backed third-party candidate jump into the race? This candidate doesn't need to win, he/she just needs to prevent Clinton from getting 270 electoral votes. If Clinton is sitting at 269, the House will decide the election.

That is kind of reminiscent of what happened in 1896, when president Cleveland and the "gold bug" Democratic party establishment were so opposed to "Bryan and Free Sliver" that they launched a third-party movement. It didn't amount to much, but I know that one of my American great-grandfathers was a keen supporter of the Gold Bug Democratic ticket according to his son, my grandfather. My grandmother has an uncle who supported Bryan, which made him a pariah, since the family were all staunch Republicans. In fact, they had been very involved in founding the party.
post #2380 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teger View Post

trumps appeal is with working class WHITE voters.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

That's the thing with Trump, he does well among one group of people: lower educated white males.

This is a common, and dangerous, misconception about Trump. Yes, he's tapped into widespread working-class discontent with globalization and its effects. But his success is due to more than that. He won nearly 50% of the primary vote in Massachusetts, not exactly a bastion of uneducated yahooism.
post #2381 of 8748
Hillaryous Rob'em Clinton for President!
post #2382 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rumpelstiltskin View Post

I think you are smoking.  Trump does not have the temperament not does he have the time to to buckle down and actually learn the issues well enough debate Hillary. The debates will highlight Trump's glaring deficiencies. He's going to be a male Sarah Palin with better 1 liners. 

Trump either came off poorly in debates or "won" because he did the best bullying. The Republican primary voters apparently wanted bullying, but we already know it's seriously riling up many other voters. I have to imagine that the general election population isn't going to reward the sideshow. Certainly the current polling would indicate that it isn't likely.


Trump is spectacular at rallies, I'll give him that. Dude has an honestly good sense of comedy and keeping a crowd involved.
post #2383 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambulance Chaser View Post


This is a common, and dangerous, misconception about Trump. Yes, he's tapped into widespread working-class discontent with globalization and its effects. But his success is due to more than that. He won nearly 50% of the primary vote in Massachusetts, not exactly a bastion of uneducated yahooism.

The Republican primary in Massachusetts, obviously. I don't know that you can draw much in the way of conclusions from that, given the alternatives. Massachusetts wasn't going to vote for Cruz, and Kasich never performed well outside of the Midwest. Hillary got more votes in Massachusetts than all the Republicans combined.

The Republican party in general trends white and for voters with less education. Trump isn't reversing that trend, at least from any evidence I've seen. If anything, he's intensifying it by focusing on white resentment and economic despair, especially in the Rust Belt.
post #2384 of 8748
According to the CNN Mass. exit poll, 87% of GOP primary voters had "some college" or more education. Trump got "only" 40% of the votes from those with college degrees or above.
post #2385 of 8748
Also, here's the CNN exit polling from the 2012 presidential election (one the Democrats won, obviously):



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