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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 158

post #2356 of 8748
The search for people willing to run with Trump, and that Trump is willing to have around is going to be fascinating.
post #2357 of 8748
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Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

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Originally Posted by Teger View Post

, and in a lot of places the assumption is if you're not outright denying your jewish identity you're a de facto zionist, aka a racist.

That is scary.

not so far from how trump/other conservatives are treating a different group in the US, if you're not denying a certain identity you might as well be a terrorist.
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Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

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Originally Posted by origenesprit View Post

You're kidding, right? I think Hillary will win, but it's not because of some revelation about Trump that will come out. The media has been trying harder than they ever have before to stick him with something for this entire primary process, and come up with squat.

I don't think it's going to be dirt that sinks Trump, it's going to be six more months of Trump that sinks Trump. He's going to collapse under his own momentum. People have going to have a LOT of time to ask themselves if they really want that guy as their President. I don't think enough of them will, and it's going to scare the hell out of enough Democrats that they'll hold their noses and turn up to vote for Hillary.

that's been the detractor line all along and he's swept the GOP primaries with his toupe. Trump cited a Rasmussen poll during his victory speech last night that he lead Clinton (although there is a caveat: he only leads if the stay-at-home option is removed from the poll, otherwise she has a slight lead). Not that I'd put a whole lot of weight into polling this early on, but I don't understand the logic behind denying inertia anymore.

The problem is that Trump is a chameleon, and so there's nothing particularly terrifying about him if you average what he says, often contradicting earlier stances, over time, because in effect he's advocating nothing other than a wall which is nonsense to begin with. Meanwhile, Cruz was terrifying, and honestly Clinton seems more like a GOP war hawk than a democratic candidate. I wouldn't be all too surprised if the Koch brothers threw their billions behind her...
post #2358 of 8748
Someone posted this guy's blog a while back.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/143789982926/clinton-versus-trump-persuasion-scores
Quote:
Today I’ll take you to the third dimension of persuasion to see how Clinton and Trump are matching up lately. I can’t make this post appear balanced because Clinton is making big mistakes on the persuasion dimension while Trump is being his usual skillful self. So the best I can do is remind you that my political preferences do not align with Trump or any other candidate.

We’ll start with Clinton’s new campaign slogan:

LOVE TRUMPS HATE

Based on the slogan, I can tell you with confidence that the Clinton campaign doesn’t have anyone with a persuasion background helping with the big decisions. Here’s why:

1. Humans put greater cognitive weight on the first part of a sentence than the last part. This is a well-understood phenomenon. And the first part literally pairs LOVE and TRUMP.

2. The slogan increases exposure to the name Trump. That’s never a good idea.

3. Spoken aloud, the slogan sounds like asking people to agree with Trump’s hate, as in “Love Trump’s hate (because Trump hates war, terrorism, and bad trade deals, same as you?).

This is the sort of mistake you never see out of the Trump campaign. The slogan is pure amateur hour. It accomplishes the opposite of its intent, and you can’t fail harder than that.
post #2359 of 8748
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Originally Posted by rnoldh View Post

Historically, VP picks don't make much of a difference.

I cannot tell you how many people have tried to convince me they would have voted for McCain if not for his VP pick. They're full of shit, as they were always going to vote for the black guy (and I say that as I suspect that's the main reason for this group of people), but it's a very common reason. Seen it right here on SF.
post #2360 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

Yeah, Gib posted that article a couple days ago.  My whole contention here is it isn't a race thing that will keep Trump from winning: it is a gender thing.  Can Trump get enough white males out to vote to counteract the female problem he has?  I don't know - unlikely though.

That's the thing with Trump, he does well among one group of people: lower educated white males. There are enough of them to win Republican primaries, especially in a divided field, but he needs somebody else to vote for him in November. Even including women, he needs something like 75% of the white vote in key states to win in November and he's going to have a hard time with educated people and with women. He shakes up the usual electoral math by virtue of his stances on trades and immigration, but I don't know if that wins him enough to do more than get the nomination.

Hispanics are going to matter in a few states though. Arizona and New Mexico are seriously in play if Hispanics actually turn out to vote. They could be enough to tip a few states, like Virginia.
post #2361 of 8748
I dont follow politics but the most obvious point I have seen so far the current clown president is wall street jokey and neocon jokey and cartering to special elites interest ,so is hillary.
Who is following the middle class pulse that people like it or not is trump. The rest of gop are out of touch.
What it comes down is to everyday economy. The media will do the usual spin ,propgaganda and marketing lines to focus else where and pat each other on back ,to unfocuss from the ticking, elephant in the room.
The middle class is growing old of usual bullshit.
Edited by ilsartodoro - 5/4/16 at 7:53am
post #2362 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

that's been the detractor line all along and he's swept the GOP primaries with his toupe. Trump cited a Rasmussen poll during his victory speech last night that he lead Clinton (although there is a caveat: he only leads if the stay-at-home option is removed from the poll, otherwise she has a slight lead). Not that I'd put a whole lot of weight into polling this early on, but I don't understand the logic behind denying inertia anymore.
At some point, the logic of "Trump has broken all expectations, so he'll keep breaking them!" can't continue to pan out. He needs to prove that the methods that appealed to Republican primary voters work in the generals, and that's a big leap.
Quote:
The problem is that Trump is a chameleon, and so there's nothing particularly terrifying about him if you average what he says, often contradicting earlier stances, over time, because in effect he's advocating nothing other than a wall which is nonsense to begin with. Meanwhile, Cruz was terrifying, and honestly Clinton seems more like a GOP war hawk than a democratic candidate. I wouldn't be all too surprised if the Koch brothers threw their billions behind her...

I don't think it's positions that are going to hurt Trump. Most voters don't really care that much about policy, especially the details. I think Trump is going to hurt Trump. His over the top obnoxious persona is the thing that's gotten him this far, and I don't think he can turn it off. I don't think he can turn it off at all, but especially without losing energy among the people who have supported him so far. It only takes one comment to turn a voter off for good, and he's going to keep making those kinds of comments. After a brief period of improvement, his unfavorability ratings have tanked again and that raises real questions about how exactly he's going to get enough voters to win.

Are female voters in particular going to forgive and forget, especially as Trump is running against Hillary? He's doubled down on the sexist stuff even within the last week, while he's doing his "pivot to being Presidential."
post #2363 of 8748
If he showed anything last night during the victory speech, it's that he can control himself and do so very well. It was a complete 180 from the style of rhetoric. He could have bashed Cruz into the ground and the knuckle draggers would have cheered him on, but he didn't. He reached out with his olive branch, presumably an attempt to bring Cruz supporters into the fold, along with all the other nonsense about other candidates being great, promoting party unity, etc.

I don't think he needs to expand as much as it may seem if the bernie supporters refuse to show up. Of course I may just being overestimating the threats made by his supporters, but it seems to be a significant portion.
post #2364 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

If he showed anything last night during the victory speech, it's that he can control himself and do so very well. It was a complete 180 from the style of rhetoric. He could have bashed Cruz into the ground and the knuckle draggers would have cheered him on, but he didn't. He reached out with his olive branch, presumably an attempt to bring Cruz supporters into the fold, along with all the other nonsense about other candidates being great, promoting party unity, etc.
One speech doesn't make a trend. Can he do that day in and day out, in rallies, in TV interviews, in debates?

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I don't think he needs to expand as much as it may seem if the bernie supporters refuse to show up. Of course I may just being overestimating the threats made by his supporters, but it seems to be a significant portion.

Some number of Bernie supporters won't show up, but this is pretty typical heat of the moment primary fight stuff. The same thing happened with Obama vs Hillary. People wondered if Hillary supporters would support Obama, and they mostly did.

I think Trump being the nominee helps there. Some Bernie supporters might flip to Trump because of the anti-trade stuff, but anybody who is a progressive is likely to be horrified enough by the possibility of a Trump Presidency that they'll hold their nose and pull the level for Hillary.


This might be the first election where I vote against a candidate rather than for someone, and I imagine that sentiment isn't unique.
post #2365 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

If he showed anything last night during the victory speech, it's that he can control himself and do so very well. It was a complete 180 from the style of rhetoric. He could have bashed Cruz into the ground and the knuckle draggers would have cheered him on, but he didn't. He reached out with his olive branch, presumably an attempt to bring Cruz supporters into the fold, along with all the other nonsense about other candidates being great, promoting party unity, etc.

I don't think he needs to expand as much as it may seem if the bernie supporters refuse to show up. Of course I may just being overestimating the threats made by his supporters, but it seems to be a significant portion.

Don't be surprised if more than a few Bernie supporters go for Trump. I still maintain part of Bernie's appeal was that he spouted all kinds of protectionist/anti-globalist rhetoric too and that's Trump's forte. As much as the MSM/left (@erictheobscure) don't like to admit it a material number of likely Dem voters are very protectionist/anti-globalism. This means Trump just might get their vote if that is their priority.
post #2366 of 8748
The only path to victory Hillary has is through gender and racial division. Minorities will not turn out for Hillary the way they did for Obama, particularly black Americans. Trump will do surprisingly well with black voters. Hillary's race card will work to some degree with Hispanics, but not as well as people think.

Trump's biggest hurdle will be with women, but he'll overcome that, too. Despite what some people think, Trump has the ability to be appeal to voters on many levels. Hillary does not.
post #2367 of 8748
Trump's biggest hurdle will be twofold: the fact he's a complete dick and that he's actually going to make Hillary appear likable to many folks.
post #2368 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Don't be surprised if more than a few Bernie supporters go for Trump. I still maintain part of Bernie's appeal was that he spouted all kinds of protectionist/anti-globalist rhetoric too and that's Trump's forte. As much as the MSM/left (@erictheobscure) don't like to admit it a material number of likely Dem voters are very protectionist/anti-globalism. This means Trump just might get their vote if that is their priority.

this isn't an unfair assessment, but i think the reasoning behind the positions are very likely to be unrelated.
post #2369 of 8748
Well, if anything has been underestimated during this cycle, it's Trump's ability to appeal to different people. I think diagnosing it as an ability that only applies to voters within the republican party is the wrong way to look at it.
post #2370 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

this isn't an unfair assessment, but i think the reasoning behind the positions are very likely to be unrelated.

Some for similar reasons, i.e. "furriners after my job!" and some for typical reasons a leftie/Dem would give. A black guy working the line in Detroit can be just as xenophobic as a white guy working the line. Heard it many times firsthand.
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