Originally Posted by the shah
that's been the detractor line all along and he's swept the GOP primaries with his toupe. Trump cited a Rasmussen poll during his victory speech last night that he lead Clinton (although there is a caveat: he only leads if the stay-at-home option is removed from the poll, otherwise she has a slight lead). Not that I'd put a whole lot of weight into polling this early on, but I don't understand the logic behind denying inertia anymore.
At some point, the logic of "Trump has broken all expectations, so he'll keep breaking them!" can't continue to pan out. He needs to prove that the methods that appealed to Republican primary voters work in the generals, and that's a big leap.
The problem is that Trump is a chameleon, and so there's nothing particularly terrifying about him if you average what he says, often contradicting earlier stances, over time, because in effect he's advocating nothing other than a wall which is nonsense to begin with. Meanwhile, Cruz was terrifying, and honestly Clinton seems more like a GOP war hawk than a democratic candidate. I wouldn't be all too surprised if the Koch brothers threw their billions behind her...
I don't think it's positions that are going to hurt Trump. Most voters don't really care that much about policy, especially the details. I think Trump
is going to hurt Trump. His over the top obnoxious persona is the thing that's gotten him this far, and I don't think he can turn it off. I don't think he can turn it off at all, but especially without losing energy among the people who have supported him so far. It only takes one comment to turn a voter off for good, and he's going to keep making those kinds of comments. After a brief period of improvement, his unfavorability ratings have tanked again and that raises real questions about how exactly he's going to get enough voters to win.
Are female voters in particular going to forgive and forget, especially as Trump is running against Hillary? He's doubled down on the sexist stuff even within the last week, while he's doing his "pivot to being Presidential."