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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 138

post #2056 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by wojt View Post

not saying you are wrong in your estimate, but are you sure GOP will go with contested convention? That's likely a suicide for the party.

That's explicitly been their strategy for months now. Mathematically, Cruz can't win and certainly Kasich can't. I think they're required to do the brokered convention if no one gets a majority, so having the other candidates stay in is a tacit acknowledgement that brokered convention is the plan.

They have people openly wondering whether it would be better to lose the election than to nominate Trump. They see nominating him (and almost especially if he wins) as being worse than any alternative.
post #2057 of 8748
What are the chances a brokered convention leads to a split in the Republican Party? Parties have fallen and died off in the past, perhaps modern politics (and the media) will prevent this from happening, but it's not without precedence.
post #2058 of 8748

They'll lose with Trump.  They're just trying to fend off being irrelevant.  If a party can let a guy like Trump be their nominee, they lose a lot of power.

 

They will, barring a miracle Trump victory in every state he needs, be a contested convention, and it will be fun to watch.  My money is still on neither Trump nor Cruz.  I don't think it will be Kaisich either.  I could see Scott Walker or someone who didn't even run be the ultimate nominee.

post #2059 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

They'll lose with Trump.  They're just trying to fend off being irrelevant.  If a party can let a guy like Trump be their nominee, they lose a lot of power.

They will, barring a miracle Trump victory in every state he needs, be a contested convention, and it will be fun to watch.  My money is still on neither Trump nor Cruz.  I don't think it will be Kaisich either.  I could see Scott Walker or someone who didn't even run be the ultimate nominee.

The convention is going to be extremely interesting politics. They could certainly come up with a more apparently viable candidate (Cruz doesn't have much chance to win the national race either), but you really have to wonder if Trump and Cruz voters would actually vote for the final nominee. They're coming out to vote for these guys because they're not party mainstream, and if some establishment figure who didn't even run gets the nod, I could see many of them being pissed off/disillusioned enough to stay home.


Hard to figure the Republicans find a way to win in November. The electoral math is bad for them in the first place, but with all this going on?
post #2060 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post


The convention is going to be extremely interesting politics. They could certainly come up with a more apparently viable candidate (Cruz doesn't have much chance to win the national race either), but you really have to wonder if Trump and Cruz voters would actually vote for the final nominee. They're coming out to vote for these guys because they're not party mainstream, and if some establishment figure who didn't even run gets the nod, I could see many of them being pissed off/disillusioned enough to stay home.


Hard to figure the Republicans find a way to win in November. The electoral math is bad for them in the first place, but with all this going on?

 

The precedent is that the Republicans should win (two consecutive terms of a Democrat and low GDP growth are strong indicators for a Republican win).  The Democratic side is also important.  Does Hillary get indicted (ha)?  Does Bernie pull the same miracle that Trump is attempting?

Until July, I think it pretty much a guessing game. 

post #2061 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

The precedent is that the Republicans should win (two consecutive terms of a Democrat and low GDP growth are strong indicators for a Republican win). 
Wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

The Democratic side is also important.  Does Hillary get indicted (ha)? 
No. This has been answered and repeated many times all you need is to read what has been written on this topic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

Does Bernie pull the same miracle that Trump is attempting?
No and he has neither numbers nor electability to attempt any miracles. The miracle has been he is running in primary and has support. Didn't you notice?
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post


Until July, I think it pretty much a guessing game. 
It is Clincton on one side with ? on the other . A far as presidency is concerned it is 99% Clinton barring Jeebus coming to Earth and endorsing some Republican schmuck.

P.S. As much as I wish for President Trump hilarious spectacle, it is not going to be allowed . Killjoy Clinton will rein. Republicans will put up some weak idiot from their rank and file and loose, just as they did With McCain and with Romney, subsequently they will loose in Congressional elections down the road.
post #2062 of 8748
Mitt and Bernie get the nom = Repub win.
post #2063 of 8748
'Babes for Trump' hashtag feed is rather nice.
post #2064 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post


The convention is going to be extremely interesting politics. They could certainly come up with a more apparently viable candidate (Cruz doesn't have much chance to win the national race either), but you really have to wonder if Trump and Cruz voters would actually vote for the final nominee. They're coming out to vote for these guys because they're not party mainstream, and if some establishment figure who didn't even run gets the nod, I could see many of them being pissed off/disillusioned enough to stay home.


Hard to figure the Republicans find a way to win in November. The electoral math is bad for them in the first place, but with all this going on?

They can't produce anyone with a decent chance that is even close to Trump or Cruz. The whole point is they are not GOP inner circle shills and people are tired of seeing establisment candidates, if they dump trump they have 0% chance of winning Trump has a real chance to win vs Hillary even if she's favoured.

Also you can't rule out Trump running as independant. Also If they do this I think it can mean end of party, if they throw a middle finger to voters like that I can't imagine them being able to recover.
post #2065 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post


Wrong.
No. This has been answered and repeated many times all you need is to read what has been written on this topic.
No and he has neither numbers nor electability to attempt any miracles. The miracle has been he is running in primary and has support. Didn't you notice?
It is Clincton on one side with ? on the other . A far as presidency is concerned it is 99% Clinton barring Jeebus coming to Earth and endorsing some Republican schmuck.

P.S. As much as I wish for President Trump hilarious spectacle, it is not going to be allowed . Killjoy Clinton will rein. Republicans will put up some weak idiot from their rank and file and loose, just as they did With McCain and with Romney, subsequently they will loose in Congressional elections down the road.


Do you have any evidence?  There are multiple economic models that suggest the Republicans are most likely to win based on the economic conditions: http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump

 

Perhaps you can keep arguing points that are easily proven false - just like you did with how delegates are selected in various states.

post #2066 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post


Do you have any evidence?  There are multiple economic models that suggest the Republicans are most likely to win based on the economic conditions: http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump

Perhaps you can keep arguing points that are easily proven false - just like you did with how delegates are selected in various states.

You mistake question with argument. Economic models predict future? Thanks for a chuckle.
post #2067 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Medwed View Post


You mistake question with argument. Economic models predict future? Thanks for a chuckle.

 

You're right:we shouldn't use models to predict the future, and we should just claim whatever we feel and go with that.

post #2068 of 8748
^ i've hear about it too

http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/political-science-professor-odds-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/

so there is a theory like that out there, supposedly it was wrong about 1960 elections and right about every other in last 104 years, but still it's political science model so it's not real science wink.gif
post #2069 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by wojt View Post

but still it's political science model so it's not real science wink.gif

Neither is economics, so all is good.
post #2070 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post


Do you have any evidence?  There are multiple economic models that suggest the Republicans are most likely to win based on the economic conditions: http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump

Perhaps you can keep arguing points that are easily proven false - just like you did with how delegates are selected in various states.

Those are the same kind of models that predicted Romney would win, so I would take them with a pretty heavy grain of salt.

They're just throwing correlation factors into a machine and tweaking it until it spits out the right winners, but the sample of size of modern presidential elections is so low that the predictive power is pretty much nil.


I'm a lot more comfortable looking at the electoral map and trying to figure out how a Republican pulls out 270. Trump is almost completely screwed on demographics to win enough swing states, and so in Cruz (again, barring some kind of major change in the race like Hillary getting indicted).
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