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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 85

post #1261 of 8748
I can tell you "Medicare for all" would bankrupt the country, since Medicare as it currently stands, has a 50/50 chance of doing it already. While I'm for universal health I'm certainly not for a Medicare style plan as it's full of perverse incentives and other nasty things.
post #1262 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post


Trump v Sanders.  My bet is Bloomberg gets in the race.  Then who the fuck knows!
Anarchy!
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The problem is he doesn't have realistic plans to accomplish them even if he could get Congressional support.  His Medicare for All plan would cost trillions. 
That's probably the most realistic one, which isn't saying that much. He totally acknowledges that it would vastly raise taxes, but it's supposedly offset by removing the cost of private insurance. It could work, if it wasn't done stupidly. Establishing Medicare as the basic tier of guarantee health care with a second tier of optional private care wouldn't be completely insane. "The government pays for everything, with no restrictions in care" (which appears to be what he's offering) is dumb.
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His plans to address income inequality would likely do nothing of the sort: taxing stock trades? That will hurt everyone saving for retirement when their 401k/pension funds make trades.

I haven't looked at the details, but those kind of proposals usually feature graduated tiers. First $XXX is untaxed, etc.


You're pretty much unambiguously screwed by Sanders if you're UMC (or up) and have decent health insurance. Maybe people could rationalize it as being worth the cost, but I'm not exactly in a hurry to sign up for an overnight 10-20% tax increase.
post #1263 of 8748
I predict that Trump will underperform the polls in the Iowa caucuses tonight.

It's one thing to ride the BS, Internet polls and hype, but it's another thing to get people to attend a caucus for two hours.
post #1264 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by rnoldh View Post

I predict that Trump will underperform the polls in the Iowa caucuses tonight.

It's one thing to ride the BS, Internet polls and hype, but it's another thing to get people to attend a caucus for two hours.

The Republican caucus is at least anonymous, so Trump voters don't have to actually admit to their neighbor's that they support Trump. Polling indicates that this is significant for Trump.

You'd think it would say something about a candidate when people don't want to admit that they're voting for him, but Trump defies all the rules again.
post #1265 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by rnoldh View Post

I predict that Trump will underperform the polls in the Iowa caucuses tonight.

It's one thing to ride the BS, Internet polls and hype, but it's another thing to get people to attend a caucus for two hours.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post


The Republican caucus is at least anonymous, so Trump voters don't have to actually admit to their neighbor's that they support Trump. Polling indicates that this is significant for Trump.

You'd think it would say something about a candidate when people don't want to admit that they're voting for him, but Trump defies all the rules again.

 

Agreed.  He will underperform the polls, but not vastly underperform the polls.  If this was the D caucus, he would get at most half the support he is polling at. 

 

It will probably be with 3/4 being very close.  I'd like to say Paul will come in 3rd, but I just don't think so.
1. Cruz

2. Trump

3. Rubio

4. Paul

post #1266 of 8748
I really wonder when (if) Bush is finally going to drop out. He's still got money, but at some point you'd think he would have to face the obvious fact that he's got no traction at all.
post #1267 of 8748
CNN's got Bush at the top of the delegate count so far. Admittedly, it's a tie with all candidates having zero and the names are in alphabetical order...
post #1268 of 8748
CNN cut away from Cruz's victory speech for Hillary's "whatever, I'm going to bed" speech.
post #1269 of 8748
And after five years and 1200+ posts for this thread, Trump is still #2.
post #1270 of 8748
Ted Cruz's first words on his win: "To God goes the glory" ("Allahu Akbar!").
post #1271 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

I really wonder when (if) Bush is finally going to drop out. He's still got money, but at some point you'd think he would have to face the obvious fact that he's got no traction at all.

Bush campaign has pretty much always been a grift. The campaign will shut down when the campaign managers have looted every last dime of the 9 figure sum they raised.
post #1272 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by the shah View Post

Ted Cruz's first words on his win: "To God goes the glory" ("Allahu Akbar!").


But did he chop off anyone's head?
post #1273 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

I'm not sure that all of Sanders ideas are bad (universal healthcare, some kind of basic college, working to address income inequality). But A) there's absolutely no way he's going to win enough support in Congress to pass any of it B) the way he's trying to address most of these things is "throw 1%er money at them." You're not going to fix the problem with paying for college in America by writing a bunch of checks to 18 year olds.


The other thing that's killing me right now is that any time Sanders is called out on his goals not being realistic, he uses it to segue into a rant about why his ideas are necessary. For a supposed un-politician, he's getting a lot of mileage out of practicing the most basic political dodge of ignoring questions and using them to soapbox.

I'm not convinced that increasing subsidies for education is going to help. When people are paying for their own education they are willing to spend their money on worthless degrees that leave them stranded in their parents' basement without marketable job skills. I'd hate to see what they would major in if they weren't paying for it themselves.
post #1274 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post


But did he chop off anyone's head?


I think he leaves the messy work to his father.

post #1275 of 8748
New Hampshire polls open midnight, tonight, 2-9-16

I predict Trump will under perform at 5-7% below whatever his average of polls is. He is not spending much money ( certainly not his own ), and he doesn't have any ground game or experienced people behind him.

He might still win since he is probably 10-12 points ahead of anyone, but I sense he will weaken and not strengthen in the next month.

Of course, he might continue his luck and have everything break his way. That would be more and more earned publicity and everyone staying in the race might do it for him.
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