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Trump is #2 in GOP Field - Page 84

post #1246 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

That's sort of the point though, Trump hasn't offered any real solutions on immigration. There's the wall, and the freeze on Muslims which is like 0.01% of immigration. It doesn't address the economic draw, the fact that a huge amount of our agriculture and labor intensive industry relies heavily on migrant labor (frequently below minimum wage). It's just a big expensive token solution that will only slow down the issue and not really take the serious steps to actually fixing it.

 

People don't want real solutions.  Border walls, bomb all Muslims, "Medicare for all", etc aren't real solutions but that's what does well in the polls.

post #1247 of 8748
A wall might not be the solution, but it would be part of a multifaceted solution. Short of a revolution, I'm not sure what can stop the exploitation of cheap labor and new customers that corporations want. A crazy fuck like Trump could have a shot, if he were actually serious about what he's saying, but it would still have to get through congress. Implementing such sanctions on cheap labor/illegals could hurt the economy in the short term, and short could mean 20 years. Who the hell knows. If that's the case it would require convincing the public that it's a long term investment that might hurt now but will pay off later. Good luck with that.

The economic draw isn't going to bring a chemical weapon across the southern border, so the wall does serve a security purpose.
post #1248 of 8748
The US honestly does not need a wall. All it needs is to figure a way to motivate a large group of non-productive native born people to enter the work force and the impetus for the illegals to enter the country will largely disappear.
post #1249 of 8748
I would also
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

The US honestly does not need a wall. All it needs is to figure a way to motivate a large group of non-productive native born people to enter the work force and the impetus for the illegals to enter the country will largely disappear.

I was just learning to speak Canadian.
post #1250 of 8748
post #1251 of 8748
13:57 "low energy" lol8[1].gif
post #1252 of 8748
For TLDNR crowd:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post

Trump is the price the GOP is paying, and will pay, for betraying the country on immigration.

Gov-Corp, Inc. made money on cheap, no questions asked labor and the GOP aided and abetted the crime.

What is a country when you can make a few bucks and buy Gucci for your mistresses?

**********************************

For NTLDR crowd:

Today from Tucker Carlson. Every word of this is accurate. Behold, truth.
Quote:
He Exists Because You Failed

American presidential elections usually amount to a series of overcorrections: Clinton begat Bush, who produced Obama, whose lax border policies fueled the rise of Trump. In the case of Trump, though, the GOP shares the blame, and not just because his fellow Republicans misdirected their ad buys or waited so long to criticize him. Trump is in part a reaction to the intellectual corruption of the Republican Party. That ought to be obvious to his critics, yet somehow it isn’t.

Consider the conservative nonprofit establishment, which seems to employ most right-of-center adults in Washington. Over the past 40 years, how much donated money have all those think tanks and foundations consumed? Billions, certainly. (Someone better at math and less prone to melancholy should probably figure out the precise number.) Has America become more conservative over that same period? Come on. Most of that cash went to self-perpetuation: Salaries, bonuses, retirement funds, medical, dental, lunches, car services, leases on high-end office space, retreats in Mexico, more fundraising. Unless you were the direct beneficiary of any of that, you’d have to consider it wasted.

Pretty embarrassing. And yet they’re not embarrassed. Many of those same overpaid, underperforming tax-exempt sinecure-holders are now demanding that Trump be stopped. Why? Because, as his critics have noted in a rising chorus of hysteria, Trump represents “an existential threat to conservatism.”

Let that sink in. Conservative voters are being scolded for supporting a candidate they consider conservative because it would be bad for conservatism? And by the way, the people doing the scolding? They’re the ones who’ve been advocating for open borders, and nation-building in countries whose populations hate us, and trade deals that eliminated jobs while enriching their donors, all while implicitly mocking the base for its worries about abortion and gay marriage and the pace of demographic change. Now they’re telling their voters to shut up and obey, and if they don’t, they’re liberal.

It turns out the GOP wasn’t simply out of touch with its voters; the party had no idea who its voters were or what they believed. For decades, party leaders and intellectuals imagined that most Republicans were broadly libertarian on economics and basically neoconservative on foreign policy. That may sound absurd now, after Trump has attacked nearly the entire Republican catechism (he savaged the Iraq War and hedge fund managers in the same debate) and been greatly rewarded for it, but that was the assumption the GOP brain trust operated under. They had no way of knowing otherwise. The only Republicans they talked to read the Wall Street Journal too.

On immigration policy, party elders were caught completely by surprise. Even canny operators like Ted Cruz didn’t appreciate the depth of voter anger on the subject. And why would they? If you live in an affluent ZIP code, it’s hard to see a downside to mass low-wage immigration. Your kids don’t go to public school. You don’t take the bus or use the emergency room for health care. No immigrant is competing for your job. (The day Hondurans start getting hired as green energy lobbyists is the day my neighbors become nativists.) Plus, you get cheap servants, and get to feel welcoming and virtuous while paying them less per hour than your kids make at a summer job on Nantucket. It’s all good.
Apart from his line about Mexican rapists early in the campaign, Trump hasn’t said anything especially shocking about immigration. Control the border, deport lawbreakers, try not to admit violent criminals — these are the ravings of a Nazi? This is the “ghost of George Wallace” that a Politico piece described last August? A lot of Republican leaders think so. No wonder their voters are rebelling.

Truth Is Not Only A Defense, It’s Thrilling

When was the last time you stopped yourself from saying something you believed to be true for fear of being punished or criticized for saying it? If you live in America, it probably hasn’t been long. That’s not just a talking point about political correctness. It’s the central problem with our national conversation, the main reason our debates are so stilted and useless. You can’t fix a problem if you don’t have the words to describe it. You can’t even think about it clearly.

This depressing fact made Trump’s political career. In a country where almost everyone in public life lies reflexively, it’s thrilling to hear someone say what he really thinks, even if you believe he’s wrong. It’s especially exciting when you suspect he’s right.

A temporary ban on Muslim immigration? That sounds a little extreme (meaning nobody else has said it recently in public). But is it? Millions of Muslims have moved to Western Europe over the past 50 years, and a sizable number of them still haven’t assimilated. Instead, they remain hostile and sometimes dangerous to the cultures that welcomed them. By any measure, that experiment has failed. What’s our strategy for not repeating it here, especially after San Bernardino—attacks that seemed to come out of nowhere? Invoke American exceptionalism and hope for the best? Before Trump, that was the plan.

Republican primary voters should be forgiven for wondering who exactly is on the reckless side of this debate. At the very least, Trump seems like he wants to protect the country.

Evangelicals understand this better than most. You read surveys that indicate the majority of Christian conservatives support Trump, and then you see the video: Trump on stage with pastors, looking pained as they pray over him, misidentifying key books in the New Testament, and in general doing a ludicrous imitation of a faithful Christian, the least holy roller ever. You wonder as you watch this: How could they be that dumb? He’s so obviously faking it.

They know that already. I doubt there are many Christian voters who think Trump could recite the Nicene Creed, or even identify it. Evangelicals have given up trying to elect one of their own. What they’re looking for is a bodyguard, someone to shield them from mounting (and real) threats to their freedom of speech and worship. Trump fits that role nicely, better in fact than many church-going Republicans. For eight years, there was a born-again in the White House. How’d that work out for Christians, here and in Iraq?

Washington Really Is Corrupt

Everyone beats up on Washington, but most of the people I know who live here love it. Of course they do. It’s beautiful, the people are friendly, we’ve got good restaurants, not to mention full employment and construction cranes on virtually every corner. If you work on Capitol Hill or downtown, it’s hard to walk back from lunch without seeing someone you know. It’s a warm bath. Nobody wants to leave.

But let’s pretend for a second this isn’t Washington. Let’s imagine it’s the capital of an African country, say Burkina Faso, and we are doing a study on corruption. Probably the first question we’d ask: How many government officials have close relatives who make a living by influencing government spending? A huge percentage of them? OK. Case closed. Ouagadougou is obviously a very corrupt city.

That’s how the rest of the country views D.C. Washington is probably the richest city in America because the people who live there have the closest proximity to power. That seems obvious to most voters. It’s less obvious to us, because everyone here is so cheerful and familiar, and we’re too close to it. Chairman so-and-so’s son-in-law lobbies the committee? That doesn’t seem corrupt. He’s such a good guy.

All of which explains why almost nobody in Washington caught the significance of Trump’s finest moment in the first debate. One of the moderators asked, in effect: if you’re so opposed to Hillary Clinton, why did she come to your last wedding? It seemed like a revealing, even devastating question.

Trump’s response, delivered without pause or embarrassment: Because I paid her to be there. As if she was the wedding singer, or in charge of the catering.

Even then, I’ll confess, I didn’t get it. (Why would you pay someone to come to your wedding?) But the audience did. Trump is the ideal candidate to fight Washington corruption not simply because he opposes it, but because he has personally participated in it. He’s not just a reformer; like most effective populists, he’s a whistleblower, a traitor to his class. Before he became the most ferocious enemy American business had ever known, Teddy Roosevelt was a rich guy. His privilege wasn't incidental; it was key to his appeal. Anyone can peer through the window in envy. It takes a real man to throw furniture through it from the inside.

If Trump is leading a populist movement, many of his Republican critics have joined an elitist one. Deriding Trump is an act of class solidarity, visible evidence of refinement and proof that you live nowhere near a Wal-Mart. Early last summer, in a piece that greeted Trump when he entered the race, National Review described the candidate as “a ridiculous buffoon with the worst taste since Caligula.” Virtually every other critique of Trump from the right has voiced similar aesthetic concerns.

Why is the Party of Ideas suddenly so fixated on fashion and hair? Maybe all dying institutions devolve this way, from an insistence on intellectual rigor to a flabby preoccupation with appearances. It happened in the Episcopal Church, once renowned for its liturgy, now a stop on architectural and garden tours. Only tourists go there anymore.

He Could Win

Of all the dumb things that have been said about Trump by people who were too slow to get finance jobs and therefore wound up in journalism, perhaps the stupidest of all is the one you hear most: He’ll get killed in the general! This is a godsend for Democrats! Forty-state wipeout! And so it goes mindlessly on.

Actually — and this is no endorsement of Trump, just an interjection of reality — that’s a crock. Of the Republicans now running, Trump likely has the best chance to beat Hillary Clinton, for two reasons:

First, he’s the only Republican who can meaningfully expand the pie. Polls show a surprisingly large number of Democrats open to Trump. In one January survey by the polling form Mercury Analytics , almost 20 percent said they’d consider crossing over to him from Hillary. Even if that’s double the actual number, it’s still stunning. Could Ted Cruz expect to draw that many Democrats? Could Jeb?

It’s an article of faith in Washington that Trump would tank the party’s prospects with minority voters. Sounds logical, especially if you’re a sensitive white liberal who considers the suggestion of a border wall a form of hate speech, but consider the baseline. In the last election, Romney got 6 percent of the black vote, and 27 percent of Hispanics. Trump, who’s energetic, witty and successful, will do worse? I wouldn’t bet on it.

But the main reason Trump could win is because he’s the only candidate hard enough to call Hillary’s bluff. Republicans will say almost anything about Hillary, but almost none challenge her basic competence. She may be evil, but she’s tough and accomplished. This we know, all of us.

But do we? Or is this understanding of Hillary just another piety we repeat out of unthinking habit, the political equivalent of, “you can be whatever you want to be,” or “breakfast is the most important meal of the day”? Trump doesn’t think Hillary is impressive and strong. He sees her as brittle and afraid.

He may be right, based on his exchange with her just before Christmas. During a speech in Grand Rapids, Michigan, Trump said Hillary had been “schlonged” by Obama in the 2008 race. In response, the Clinton campaign called Trump a sexist. It’s a charge Hillary has leveled against virtually every opponent she’s faced, but Trump responded differently. Instead of scrambling to donate to breast cancer research, he pointed out that Hillary spent years attacking the alleged victims of her husband’s sexual assaults. That ended the conversation almost immediately.

It was the most effective possible response, though more obvious than brilliant. Why was Trump the only Republican to use it?

Republican primary voters may be wondering the same thing. Or maybe they already know. They seem to know a lot about Trump, more than the people who run their party. They know that he isn’t a conventional ideological conservative. They seem relieved. They can see that he’s emotionally incontinent. They find it exciting.

Washington Republicans look on at this in horror, their suspicions confirmed. Beneath the thin topsoil of rural conservatism, they see the seeds of proto-fascism beginning to sprout. But that’s not quite right. Republicans in the states aren’t dangerous. They’ve just evaluated the alternatives and decided those are worse.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-is-shocking-vulgar-and-right-213572#ixzz3yeIy0NM7
post #1253 of 8748
That Tucker Carlson piece is astute.

Probably the most prescient and interesting commentator on the Trump phenomenon has been Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert. His blog posts on DT are essential reading..
post #1254 of 8748
Betting markets are now laying 50% implied odds of Trump locking up the nomination. That is up from 25% just 3 weeks ago.

We will know a lot more after Iowa results are in and the pollsters have a chance to calibrate. E.g. is he drawing new primary votes, and what ate the demographic breakdowns? That 50% should either go way up or way down..
post #1255 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock View Post

That Tucker Carlson piece is astute.

Probably the most prescient and interesting commentator on the Trump phenomenon has been Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert. His blog posts on DT are essential reading..

Thanks, some good stuff on there. From the blog:
Quote:
What is the one best thing he can do to separate himself from the Republican machine and show that he can be a deal-maker for everyone? Answer: Punch FOX News in the mouth. Right in front of you.

Democrats are watching. Trump is framing himself as an enemy of their enemy. (Democrats hate FOX News.)

I thought about this, too, but the people who truly hate Fox will not vote for Trump (or any other republican). The premise is that some moderate democrats might be tempted because Trump told Fox fuck off, but moderates by their nature are not in the business of hating anyone. If moderate dems vote for Trump it will be for other reasons.
post #1256 of 8748
I've been reading some stuff about Sanders recently, and there are some interesting commonalities between him and Trump. They've both playing to emotions, both providing a vision of a transformation, and both trying hard to avoid really giving the details of how their plans would actually come into fruition and work.

People on both sides are not pleased with the political system, and that's not great for establishment candidates. I think right-wing voters are more dissatisfied, but we'll see. Sanders vs Trump would be strange, hard to see how that comes out. I think Trump might actually win that.
post #1257 of 8748
Yeah, even Le Pelosi is distancing herself from Sanders.
post #1258 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Yeah, even Le Pelosi is distancing herself from Sanders.

I'm not sure that all of Sanders ideas are bad (universal healthcare, some kind of basic college, working to address income inequality). But A) there's absolutely no way he's going to win enough support in Congress to pass any of it B) the way he's trying to address most of these things is "throw 1%er money at them." You're not going to fix the problem with paying for college in America by writing a bunch of checks to 18 year olds.


The other thing that's killing me right now is that any time Sanders is called out on his goals not being realistic, he uses it to segue into a rant about why his ideas are necessary. For a supposed un-politician, he's getting a lot of mileage out of practicing the most basic political dodge of ignoring questions and using them to soapbox.
post #1259 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

I'm not sure that all of Sanders ideas are bad (universal healthcare, some kind of basic college, working to address income inequality). But A) there's absolutely no way he's going to win enough support in Congress to pass any of it B) the way he's trying to address most of these things is "throw 1%er money at them." You're not going to fix the problem with paying for college in America by writing a bunch of checks to 18 year olds.


The other thing that's killing me right now is that any time Sanders is called out on his goals not being realistic, he uses it to segue into a rant about why his ideas are necessary. For a supposed un-politician, he's getting a lot of mileage out of practicing the most basic political dodge of ignoring questions and using them to soapbox.

His more outlandish domestic ideas stand a snowball's chance in hell of passing through anything resembling this Congress. I prefer him on the Democratic side because he's the only non-neocon running when it comes to foreign policy. Our misadventures in the Middle East have been disastrous and Clinton would continue with more of the same.
post #1260 of 8748
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post

I've been reading some stuff about Sanders recently, and there are some interesting commonalities between him and Trump. They've both playing to emotions, both providing a vision of a transformation, and both trying hard to avoid really giving the details of how their plans would actually come into fruition and work.

People on both sides are not pleased with the political system, and that's not great for establishment candidates. I think right-wing voters are more dissatisfied, but we'll see. Sanders vs Trump would be strange, hard to see how that comes out. I think Trump might actually win that.


Trump v Sanders.  My bet is Bloomberg gets in the race.  Then who the fuck knows!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibonius View Post


I'm not sure that all of Sanders ideas are bad (universal healthcare, some kind of basic college, working to address income inequality). But A) there's absolutely no way he's going to win enough support in Congress to pass any of it B) the way he's trying to address most of these things is "throw 1%er money at them." You're not going to fix the problem with paying for college in America by writing a bunch of checks to 18 year olds.


The other thing that's killing me right now is that any time Sanders is called out on his goals not being realistic, he uses it to segue into a rant about why his ideas are necessary. For a supposed un-politician, he's getting a lot of mileage out of practicing the most basic political dodge of ignoring questions and using them to soapbox.

 

The problem is he doesn't have realistic plans to accomplish them even if he could get Congressional support.  His Medicare for All plan would cost trillions.  His plans to address income inequality would likely do nothing of the sort: taxing stock trades?  That will hurt everyone saving for retirement when their 401k/pension funds make trades.


Sanders is the best political machine in the race.

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