Amazing game last night. Hosmer almost single-handedly saved the Royals' season by working the count, hitting a triple, and heading home on a slow chopper up the middle to score the tying run.
Question for all the sabermetricians out there. Baseball conventional wisdom is that late in a tie game with no outs and a man on first base, you sacrifice the man over to second base. Both teams did this reflexively. I've read that conventional wisdom is wrong and that you are statistically better off not trading an out for a runner in scoring position. Is conventional wisdom wrong? Does it depend on who is at the plate?
It is wrong. Having 33% fewer opportunities to score is not worth being 25% closer to home.