2017 MLB Season Thread

[Slopho]



slopho stop turning this into another O's thread and let the less doomed teams have some fun.

How about that Ben Francisco, huh? Two months ago he wasn't even sure thing to make the postseason roster.

And watching Ryan Madson bat was almost as fun as seeing Sidney Ponson bat at an interleague game in Phila a few years back.

The Phillies are doomed, my proclamation is this "They will not get past the Brew Crew!!"

 

[LawrenceMD]



Henry put together a great company for consulting and picking stocks. And he and Werner and the other owners have done a great job fixing up Fenway and investing into the operations of the Red Sox. But I am not so sure his statistical mind is behind the Red Sox World Series wins. Remember he owned the Marlins for 3 seasons and they did nothing under his watch. They did win WS before and after his ownership.
Henry did cut Marlins salaries in half, so I am not sure his track record as an owner is the one that drives the big spending decisions for the pure pursuit of sinning or that he uses his statistical baseball mind to win games for the teams he has owned.
I do know they were worried about declining TV revenues so they signed big names Crawford and Gonzalez and refused to pay for Beltre and Martinez at cheaper prices. Ratings are back up so that is great for revenues but not sure you could say in year 1 that the Sox came out on top by trading top prrospects and spending all that $$ ($300M?) on Crawford and Gonzalez. And if he was a no holds bard spender, why not resign Martinez at catcher rather than go with a guy with very little major league time? And baseball is so much about chemistry - not so sure getting rid of club house leader Martinez waseven the best cost saving decision.
And then, if Henry was all about spending for winning, why would he not spend the money to go after Cliff Lee? Epstein has been on record saying how he wanted more pitching. But pitching doesn't get you the big ratings that hitting will. (Henry and crew own 80% of NESN, TV station). So they got Crawford instead. If Lee would have signed with them, they are in playoffs easily. It wasn't poor hiiting that caused them blow a big WC lead.
Also Werner is in it with him along President Larry Lucchino so hard to tell even how much of Fenway revival and WSins is Henry's doing. Lucchino is the one that wanted Epstein for GM and Epstein clearly made a lot of the earlier personnel decisions.
Every report says that Henry has greatly increased his involvement with personnel decisions in recent years. Henry has a good ttack record in business and with the Red Sox on running the business side. But I think he is like the vast majority of other owners that screw up a club when ownership gets too involved with personnel and game management.

^^Tons-o-20/20 vision hindsight goingz on der mang.

Its just good to have a rich owner willing to spend money on marquee players and a profitable franchise - thats the most secure way to have a competitive team. Even better when that billionare owner can understand the new statistical metrics back and forth. Sure you can have super GMs who make the most of the money or even find gems and do even more than what money they are given, but the last almost decade of epstein have proven that he's not the sole guy responsible (especially having inherited a loaded 2003 team and moves like beckett signing done during his hiatus/hissy fit leave that weren't his call).

epstein is definitely a high IQ GM that has two WS notches on his belt. But that was aided with $120,000,000-$150,000,000 payrolls. how many WS do billy bean and andrew friedman have? The statistical trends have actually caught up with the Stat-Centric GMs (to the point where they are looking for the same things ie advanced Defensive Statistics but using their own modalities [secret sauce formulas/programs]).

and then there is the time honored statistical trend: that the playoffs are a crapshoot. from the looks of it philly should run away with it, and texas is looking strong too. but i wouldn't be surprised if arizona or st. louis gets hot and then wins it all.

personally i think texas or detroit wins it all (those are the franchises which employ the hybrid [wicked old school + stat centric + reasonably high payroll] mix that seems to be way to go about it these days. Philly also falls into this category but they are in the upper super duper high payroll category with the Sawx&Yanks.

 

[Rambo]

Yankees!

 

[edinatlanta]



how many WS do billy bean and andrew friedman have

While much of what they suggested has been discredited, their lack of WS isn't an indictment on their system, especially when it has been adopted by every other team... that's kind of what's important, the advantage they once had is lost .

 

[LawrenceMD]



While much of what they suggested has been discredited, their lack of WS isn't an indictment on their system, especially when it has been adopted by every other team... that's kind of what's important, the advantage they once had is lost .

stats still don't lie - so "what they suggested valuing OPS/OBP ect" actually is true - its just no longer undervalued.

using those stats (in a previously stat-light environment) yielded excellent results in a 162game regular season. which can be deemed "successful". but still yielded rosters with glaring holes (due to stingy payrolls) which can be exposed in the playoffs (think about the A's with crappy defense but high OPS/OPBs).

if friedman or beane had vast resources those teams would be totally different personnel-wise, but still utilize statistical advantage dogmas with the aide of $150,000,000 payrolls. They'd be most certainly better equipped for the post season. Just like the 2003/2004/2007/2008 redsox (all stat oriented rosters that had deep playoff runs).

hence the new trend to quantify defense statistically - to the point where the teams keep their program/method/formulas secret from one another (its the only way to pluck undervalued assets).

 

[edinatlanta]



stats still don't lie - so "what they suggested valuing OPS/OBP ect" actually is true - its just no longer undervalued.
using those stats (in a previously stat-light environment) yielded excellent results in a 162game regular season. which can be deemed "successful". but still yielded rosters with glaring holes (due to stingy payrolls) which can be exposed in the playoffs (think about the A's with crappy defense but high OPS/OPBs).
if friedman or beane had vast resources those teams would be totally different personnel-wise, but still utilize statistical advantage dogmas with the aide of $150,000,000 payrolls. They'd be most certainly better equipped for the post season. Just like the 2003/2004/2007/2008 redsox (all stat oriented rosters that had deep playoff runs).
hence the new trend to quantify defense statistically - to the point where the teams keep their program/method/formulas secret from one another (its the only way to pluck undervalued assets).

They also said scouting was bunk... we're on the same page, fwiw.

 

[LawrenceMD]



They also said scouting was bunk... we're on the same page, fwiw.

we're totally on the same page. but the thing is successful 162 game seasons by stat heavy "poor teams" (like the rays this year) yield a plethora of info that can be used against them. so teams will be exposed (it up to the players to actually produce those advantages) but the only sure way to really plug up holes is to have roster flexibility i.e. more money.

you can still use old school scouting. There are ton guys signed on talent and physicality, but its greatly aided with stats now (using stats to monitor progress in the minors).

 

[clarinetplayer]

To all Yankee fans, I quote a famous Yankee catcher: "It ain't over until the fat lady sings."

One more game. Anything can happen.

I was at Tuesday night's game and experienced the total humiliation of a horrific loss to the Yankees. That Granderson catch in the first inning took the wind out of our sail. I sat in the bleacher section and saw that spectacular catch up close. Granderson must be the most graceful outfielder in all of baseball. Oh, how we miss him.

I'm not worried about the Tigers pitching. It is the silence of the Big Bats in our line up.

For whatever reason, I am thinking of the words of Charlie Dressen who, in his career, managed the Brooklyn Dodgers and the Detroit Tigers: "Just hang in there, boys! I'll think of something." Hoping that Leyland is thinking.

 

[bdeuce22]

it'll be close. Tigers never faced Nova in the regular season. Seeing him twice in 5 days certainly helps. However, same can be said with Fister.

 

[Slopho]



To all Yankee fans, I quote a famous Yankee catcher: "It ain't over until the fat lady sings."
One more game. Anything can happen.
I was at Tuesday night's game and experienced the total humiliation of a horrific loss to the Yankees. That Granderson catch in the first inning took the wind out of our sail. I sat in the bleacher section and saw that spectacular catch up close. Granderson must be the most graceful outfielder in all of baseball. Oh, how we miss him.
I'm not worried about the Tigers pitching. It is the silence of the Big Bats in our line up.
For whatever reason, I am thinking of the words of Charlie Dressen who, in his career, managed the Brooklyn Dodgers and the Detroit Tigers: "Just hang in there, boys! I'll think of something." Hoping that Leyland is thinking.

Yogi Berra didn't say this, he said it ain't over til its over. And for D-Town its over tomorrow night.

 

[bdeuce22]



Yogi Berra didn't say this, he said it ain't over til its over. And for D-Town its over tomorrow night.

hey, don't say that. this also comes from the guy telling us not to buy black ops.................oh wait............

 

[clarinetplayer]

I liked Fister's comments to the press, yesterday. Cool, calm, collected, poised, confident. I'm not worried about the pitching. It is the silence from the middle of the batting order that scares me. Playing in the "new" Yankee Stadium does not have the same significance as playing in the old. No ghosts. Just another new ballpark. The Fenway would scare the daylights out of me.

 

[Rambo]

When was the last time there were three game 5's? Should be an exciting 2 days.

 

[LawrenceMD]

there will be fanbases pissing their pants tonight.

there's nothing more nerve wracking than watching playoff baseball and rooting for a team. its borderline torture.

 

[in stitches]



When was the last time there were three game 5's? Should be an exciting 2 days.