Originally Posted by guster
Henry put together a great company for consulting and picking stocks. And he and Werner and the other owners have done a great job fixing up Fenway and investing into the operations of the Red Sox. But I am not so sure his statistical mind is behind the Red Sox World Series wins. Remember he owned the Marlins for 3 seasons and they did nothing under his watch. They did win WS before and after his ownership.
Henry did cut Marlins salaries in half, so I am not sure his track record as an owner is the one that drives the big spending decisions for the pure pursuit of sinning or that he uses his statistical baseball mind to win games for the teams he has owned.
I do know they were worried about declining TV revenues so they signed big names Crawford and Gonzalez and refused to pay for Beltre and Martinez at cheaper prices. Ratings are back up so that is great for revenues but not sure you could say in year 1 that the Sox came out on top by trading top prrospects and spending all that $$ ($300M?) on Crawford and Gonzalez. And if he was a no holds bard spender, why not resign Martinez at catcher rather than go with a guy with very little major league time? And baseball is so much about chemistry - not so sure getting rid of club house leader Martinez waseven the best cost saving decision.
And then, if Henry was all about spending for winning, why would he not spend the money to go after Cliff Lee? Epstein has been on record saying how he wanted more pitching. But pitching doesn't get you the big ratings that hitting will. (Henry and crew own 80% of NESN, TV station). So they got Crawford instead. If Lee would have signed with them, they are in playoffs easily. It wasn't poor hiiting that caused them blow a big WC lead.
Also Werner is in it with him along President Larry Lucchino so hard to tell even how much of Fenway revival and WSins is Henry's doing. Lucchino is the one that wanted Epstein for GM and Epstein clearly made a lot of the earlier personnel decisions.
Every report says that Henry has greatly increased his involvement with personnel decisions in recent years. Henry has a good ttack record in business and with the Red Sox on running the business side. But I think he is like the vast majority of other owners that screw up a club when ownership gets too involved with personnel and game management.
^^Tons-o-20/20 vision hindsight goingz on der mang.
Its just good to have a rich owner willing to spend money on marquee players and a profitable franchise - thats the most secure way to have a competitive team. Even better when that billionare owner can understand the new statistical metrics back and forth. Sure you can have super GMs who make the most of the money or even find gems and do even more than what money they are given, but the last almost decade of epstein have proven that he's not the sole guy responsible (especially having inherited a loaded 2003 team and moves like beckett signing done during his hiatus/hissy fit leave that weren't his call).
epstein is definitely a high IQ GM that has two WS notches on his belt. But that was aided with $120,000,000-$150,000,000 payrolls. how many WS do billy bean and andrew friedman have? The statistical trends have actually caught up with the Stat-Centric GMs (to the point where they are looking for the same things ie advanced Defensive Statistics but using their own modalities [secret sauce formulas/programs]).
and then there is the time honored statistical trend: that the playoffs are a crapshoot. from the looks of it philly should run away with it, and texas is looking strong too. but i wouldn't be surprised if arizona or st. louis gets hot and then wins it all.
personally i think texas or detroit wins it all (those are the franchises which employ the hybrid [wicked old school + stat centric + reasonably high payroll] mix that seems to be way to go about it these days. Philly also falls into this category but they are in the upper super duper high payroll category with the Sawx&Yanks.