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2014 MLB Season Thread - Page 174

post #2596 of 4074
One of my all-time favorite sports-writing nuggets was when somebody compared watching Manny play the outfield to watching a drunk guy try to get away from the cops.
post #2597 of 4074
Prince Fielder's at bat music is the REX TREMENDAE from Mozart's "Requiem". "King of tremendous majesty". Kind of appropriate.
post #2598 of 4074

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/9236955/boston-red-sox-manager-john-farrell-miffed-jack-morris-allegations-clay-buchholz

 

Interesting. I have had a feeling Buchholz was cheating. Can't find any video to see for myself but I'm sure it will become available shortly. I am suspicious of all players who magically become really good players. Cough Bautista cough.

post #2599 of 4074
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/9236955/boston-red-sox-manager-john-farrell-miffed-jack-morris-allegations-clay-buchholz

Interesting. I have had a feeling Buchholz was cheating. Can't find any video to see for myself but I'm sure it will become available shortly. I am suspicious of all players who magically become really good players. Cough Bautista cough.

It's possible, but Im doubtful. Buchholz has been known to have very nasty stuff for quite a while. He was a scouting sensation in the minors in his early 20s-- just hasnt subsequenly been putting it all together until this year.
post #2600 of 4074
+1 the guy has talent and he's been due.
post #2601 of 4074

I'm bored and looking at Pitch FX graphs of Buchholz and his two seamers.

 

Here is all of last year. Note that no pitches reached 95+ and that pitches with movement -7 and farther left are 94 or under.

 

 

Now look at this year. Several pitches at 96 with the movement of last year's 94.

 

 

With the most suspect pitches, the ones around -9, 95, occurring in the Blue Jays game.

 

 

 

Cheating or not his two seam ball is in another league this year.

post #2602 of 4074
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

I'm bored and looking at Pitch FX graphs of Buchholz and his two seamers.

Here is all of last year. Note that no pitches reached 95+ and that pitches with movement -7 and farther left are 94 or under.




Now look at this year. Several pitches at 96 with the movement of last year's 94.




With the most suspect pitches, the ones around -9, 95, occurring in the Blue Jays game.





Cheating or not his two seam ball is in another league this year.

The allegation was that he's throwing a spitter, no? I suppose there's some validity to the assumption that if someone's willing to use one method of cheating, they're probably more likely to use another method as well. But doctoring the ball doesn't give you increased velocity - it effects the ball's break.
post #2603 of 4074
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post

The allegation was that he's throwing a spitter, no? I suppose there's some validity to the assumption that if someone's willing to use one method of cheating, they're probably more likely to use another method as well. But doctoring the ball doesn't give you increased velocity - it effects the ball's break.

 

Yeah but the break is a function of the velocity. In 2012 he had some pitches at -12.5 but they were slow and his fastest pitches were around -7.5 (except the one outlier at -10, 94, which could have been a doctored ball). this year hes added 2 mph while maintaining the same movement. That is the devil.

 

Maybe the increased velocity is more suspect than the break and Morris got the right conclusion with the wrong premise teacha.gif

post #2604 of 4074
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

Yeah but the break is a function of the velocity. In 2012 he had some pitches at -12.5 but they were slow and his fastest pitches were around -7.5 (except the one outlier at -10, 94, which could have been a doctored ball). this year hes added 2 mph while maintaining the same movement. That is the devil.

Maybe the increased velocity is more suspect than the break and Morris got the right conclusion with the wrong premise teacha.gif

I'm no physicist, but the break is more a function of the rotation than the velocity per se, no? Bernoulli effect and all that? Maybe I'm not following what you're saying (and I get that you're mostly just posting interesting data rather than insisting on a particular interpretation), but if the suggestion is that he could have thrown 95 mph last year but elected never to do so because he was afraid the ball would not break as much, but is now willing to jack it up to 95+ because he is adding movement -- that doesn't seem very likely to me. (Of course, while I was a middling baseball player, I couldn't pitch for crap, so what do I know?)

As to your last point - I have no idea. But if one were looking for a suspicious explanation for the increase in velocity, it seems like that would at least be a better fit.
post #2605 of 4074
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post

I'm no physicist, but the break is more a function of the rotation than the velocity per se, no? Bernoulli effect and all that? Maybe I'm not following what you're saying (and I get that you're mostly just posting interesting data rather than insisting on a particular interpretation), but if the suggestion is that he could have thrown 95 mph last year but elected never to do so because he was afraid the ball would not break as much, but is now willing to jack it up to 95+ because he is adding movement -- that doesn't seem very likely to me. (Of course, while I was a middling baseball player, I couldn't pitch for crap, so what do I know?)

As to your last point - I have no idea. But if one were looking for a suspicious explanation for the increase in velocity, it seems like that would at least be a better fit.

 

I phrased that poorly. What I meant was the more a given pitcher focuses on velocity the less spin he's able to put on the ball. So it's possible to make a ball go 100 mph and break 10 inches but it's not humanly possible. Pitchers have a certain curve where you can predict maxiumum movement given velocity and vice versa. Buchholz seems to have shifted his curve up a bit by velocity this year on his two seamer.

 

What is the most telling thing here is that the pitches that look funny on the graph occurred in the Toronto game.

post #2606 of 4074
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

I phrased that poorly. What I meant was the more a given pitcher focuses on velocity the less spin he's able to put on the ball. So it's possible to make a ball go 100 mph and break 10 inches but it's not humanly possible. Pitchers have a certain curve where you can predict maxiumum movement given velocity and vice versa. Buchholz seems to have shifted his curve up a bit by velocity this year on his two seamer.

What is the most telling thing here is that the pitches that look funny on the graph occurred in the Toronto game.

Gotcha. Fair point. Although the fact that his top velocity is up a bit more than 2% (if I understand correctly) strikes me as consistent with having refined his mechanics a bit. Again, though, I have no idea one way or another.
post #2607 of 4074
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post

Gotcha. Fair point. Although the fact that his top velocity is up a bit more than 2% (if I understand correctly) strikes me as consistent with having refined his mechanics a bit. Again, though, I have no idea one way or another.

 

Nor do I. It will be interesting to compare the graphs from tonight's game with the Toronto game now that he's attracted so much attention. Maybe that two seamer will have less bite in the upper velocities.

post #2608 of 4074

It's also good to note that a spitball has less spin and drops down like a splitter or forkball which doesn't explain the velocity/movement on his two seam which breaks horizontally. I'm going with scuffball or steroids if not good old fashioned improvement.

post #2609 of 4074
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

It's also good to note that a spitball has less spin and drops down like a splitter or forkball which doesn't explain the velocity/movement on his two seam which breaks horizontally. I'm going with scuffball or steroids if not good old fashioned improvement.

Makes sense to me.
post #2610 of 4074
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

It's also good to note that a spitball has less spin and drops down like a splitter or forkball which doesn't explain the velocity/movement on his two seam which breaks horizontally. I'm going with scuffball or steroids if not good old fashioned improvement.

lets reverse that logic.... is CC "capitn Crunch" sabbthia's decrease in velocity a result of him getting old, starting to generally suck, or off the roids? devil.gif

what I don't get is that things like doctoring the ball or spitballs are almost accepted/tolerated at a playing level (until one gets caught) but still okay and dandy for HOF consideration (whitey ford/gaylord perry/ect) /- but PEDs are a crime against humanity that needs immediate scarlet lettering and no HOF whatsoever (even without hard evidence).
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