or Connect
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Entertainment and Culture › 2014 MLB Season Thread
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

2014 MLB Season Thread - Page 171

post #2551 of 3768
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambo View Post

too many variables. you need to narrow it down. are the #1's of both teams starting? is everyone healthy? over a series, its a little easier to predict. for one game, its basically an odds crap shoot. probably 6-in-10.

I agree with Rambo's comments generally, but the premise of the question is flawed. Past results /=/ future performance, etc. You can setting betting odds, but that's not really a mathematical expression of the likelihood of a particular outcome. And even in that context, as a soft predictive factor and factoring out the variables Rambo refers to, the .600/.400 thing probably means a lot more in , say, September than in April.
post #2552 of 3768
Agree with all that. What I am asking is even simpler. Assume that 600 and 400 are our true estimations of the teams' capabilities, playing identical schedules in identical parks. Derived with whatever kind of sabermetrics those guys do.

If those assumptions hold, we can use those records as weights for the teams' relative skill.

Then the probability of 600 beating 400 is:

P [600win] * P [400lose]/(([P600win]*P[400lose])+(P [600lose]*P [400win]))

The denominator is all the possible outcomes and the numerator is the outcome were measuring.

In this case it works out to appx 69%. Any flaws in that logic?
post #2553 of 3768
Quote:
Originally Posted by edinatlanta View Post

How 'bout them Braves?

hell yes, been really fun to watch, although getting shut out by KC is a head scratcher. a few things that i've noticed: they need to tighten up the d a little (heyward has been awesome though). and the third base coach needs to toss up the stop sign more often.
post #2554 of 3768
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock View Post

Agree with all that. What I am asking is even simpler. Assume that 600 and 400 are our true estimations of the teams' capabilities, playing identical schedules in identical parks. Derived with whatever kind of sabermetrics those guys do.

If those assumptions hold, we can use those records as weights for the teams' relative skill.

Then the probability of 600 beating 400 is:

P [600win] * P [400lose]/(([P600win]*P[400lose])+(P [600lose]*P [400win]))

The denominator is all the possible outcomes and the numerator is the outcome were measuring.

In this case it works out to appx 69%. Any flaws in that logic?

Makes sense to me. But I was an English major . . .
post #2555 of 3768
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock View Post

Agree with all that. What I am asking is even simpler. Assume that 600 and 400 are our true estimations of the teams' capabilities, playing identical schedules in identical parks. Derived with whatever kind of sabermetrics those guys do.

If those assumptions hold, we can use those records as weights for the teams' relative skill.

Then the probability of 600 beating 400 is:

P [600win] * P [400lose]/(([P600win]*P[400lose])+(P [600lose]*P [400win]))

The denominator is all the possible outcomes and the numerator is the outcome were measuring.

In this case it works out to appx 69%. Any flaws in that logic?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambo View Post


Without getting too nerdy, I think you could safely say 6 or 7 out of 10.

Sounds about right to me teacha.gif
post #2556 of 3768
good to see the Marlins dead last where they belong. fuck you Loria, you hedgehog fucker
post #2557 of 3768
Quote:
Originally Posted by HRoi View Post

good to see the Marlins dead last where they belong. fuck you Loria, you hedgehog fucker

AFUCKINGMEN
post #2558 of 3768

Extra innings losses ffffuuuu.gif

post #2559 of 3768
Thread Starter 
I'm going to be a Fish fan or Phillies fan this year. It has been decided.
post #2560 of 3768
just know that supporting the Marlins is like voting for Satan
post #2561 of 3768
Thread Starter 
Well I was going to be a Phills fan for the assholishness of it, but supporting Satan seems even more baller.

ALL HAIL LORIA!
post #2562 of 3768

Florida is a crapass sports state. The Rays are good but still nobody goes. Last time I was down there Heat tickets could be had for ~20.

post #2563 of 3768
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

Florida is a crapass sports state. The Rays are good but still nobody goes. Last time I was down there Heat tickets could be had for ~20.

Guess what hoops team I like?

Also, part of the Heat thing is that...well, its Miami. There's plenty else to do. And the Rays' stadium is awful and even worse to get to.
post #2564 of 3768
Quote:
Originally Posted by HRoi View Post

good to see the Marlins dead last where they belong. fuck you Loria, you hedgehog fucker

Hey- don't diss our hedgehog's memory.

She died way too young.

She was awesome.
post #2565 of 3768
He's baaaaaaack! Papa Grande. Lord, have mercy on the Tigers.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Entertainment and Culture
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Entertainment and Culture › 2014 MLB Season Thread