or Connect
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Entertainment and Culture › 2014 MLB Season Thread
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

2014 MLB Season Thread - Page 170

post #2536 of 4071
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdeuce22 View Post

Torii Hunter is killing it.

And so is....JACKSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!
post #2537 of 4071
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdeuce22 View Post

Bullpen. Bullpen. Bullpen.

Don't be surprised if they make a trade. They have the goods to dangle out there for a closer.

I think Benoit will be THE guy though.


They are looking great though. Yesterday was a great example of how potent they can be. Jackson and Hunter getting it done. Prince has been on fire.

I was really surprised they didn't go to him when Valverde blew up.

The Giants didn't miss a beat- Wilson- Casilla- Romo
post #2538 of 4071
Thread Starter 
How 'bout them Braves?
post #2539 of 4071
Denisons of this thread-- can you help settle a bar-room argument:

What are the odds of a .600 team beating a .400 team any given game?
post #2540 of 4071
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock View Post

Denisons of this thread-- can you help settle a bar-room argument:

What are the odds of a .600 team beating a .400 team any given game?

too many variables. you need to narrow it down. are the #1's of both teams starting? is everyone healthy? over a series, its a little easier to predict. for one game, its basically an odds crap shoot. probably 6-in-10.
post #2541 of 4071


Brayan Pena was a double hero in the Tigers 14 inning game with the Mariners. Worth staying up til 2:40 a.m. to watch.
post #2542 of 4071
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambo View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock View Post

Denisons of this thread-- can you help settle a bar-room argument:

What are the odds of a .600 team beating a .400 team any given game?

too many variables. you need to narrow it down. are the #1's of both teams starting? is everyone healthy? over a series, its a little easier to predict. for one game, its basically an odds crap shoot. probably 6-in-10.

Right. Just make the simplifying assumption that the squad on the field represents a season capability of .600. Forget about home field and everything else.

I have some back of the napkin math that shows they should win over 70% of the time, but I feel like Im missing something..
post #2543 of 4071
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock View Post

Right. Just make the simplifying assumption that the squad on the field represents a season capability of .600. Forget about home field and everything else.

I have some back of the napkin math that shows they should win over 70% of the time, but I feel like Im missing something..

 

You're missing that the .600 winning percentage is spread out over teams normally distributed from .000 - 1.000 so when you calculate odds against a .400 team it is different. I think you would need a regression to figure it out.

post #2544 of 4071
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock View Post

Right. Just make the simplifying assumption that the squad on the field represents a season capability of .600. Forget about home field and everything else.


I have some back of the napkin math that shows they should win over 70% of the time, but I feel like Im missing something..

You're missing that the .600 winning percentage is spread out over teams normally distributed from .000 - 1.000 so when you calculate odds against a .400 team it is different. I think you would need a regression to figure it out.

Without getting too nerdy, I think you could safely say 6 or 7 out of 10.
post #2545 of 4071
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

You're missing that the .600 winning percentage is spread out over teams normally distributed from .000 - 1.000 so when you calculate odds against a .400 team it is different. I think you would need a regression to figure it out.

You would. I think you can calculate it online using some of the regression calculators.
post #2546 of 4071
Quote:
Originally Posted by edinatlanta View Post

You would. I think you can calculate it online using some of the regression calculators.

 

I have Stata on my personal computer. I should find some kind of massive data set and calculate it for real foo.gif

post #2547 of 4071
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ View Post

I have Stata on my personal computer. I should find some kind of massive data set and calculate it for real foo.gif

Dude, you can't not do it now.
post #2548 of 4071
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by edinatlanta View Post

Dude, you can't not do it now.

I'm sure to cheat you could do something involving the number of 600 and 400% winning percentage teams. But I don't know how that might help.
post #2549 of 4071
Quote:
Originally Posted by edinatlanta View Post

Dude, you can't not do it now.

 

The data exists too. Alas, I am lazy and don't have my laptop at work

post #2550 of 4071
Thread Starter 
Fucking gay.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Entertainment and Culture
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Entertainment and Culture › 2014 MLB Season Thread