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# 2013 MLB Season Thread - Page 171

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambo

too many variables. you need to narrow it down. are the #1's of both teams starting? is everyone healthy? over a series, its a little easier to predict. for one game, its basically an odds crap shoot. probably 6-in-10.

I agree with Rambo's comments generally, but the premise of the question is flawed. Past results /=/ future performance, etc. You can setting betting odds, but that's not really a mathematical expression of the likelihood of a particular outcome. And even in that context, as a soft predictive factor and factoring out the variables Rambo refers to, the .600/.400 thing probably means a lot more in , say, September than in April.
Agree with all that. What I am asking is even simpler. Assume that 600 and 400 are our true estimations of the teams' capabilities, playing identical schedules in identical parks. Derived with whatever kind of sabermetrics those guys do.

If those assumptions hold, we can use those records as weights for the teams' relative skill.

Then the probability of 600 beating 400 is:

P [600win] * P [400lose]/(([P600win]*P[400lose])+(P [600lose]*P [400win]))

The denominator is all the possible outcomes and the numerator is the outcome were measuring.

In this case it works out to appx 69%. Any flaws in that logic?
Quote:
Originally Posted by edinatlanta

How 'bout them Braves?

hell yes, been really fun to watch, although getting shut out by KC is a head scratcher. a few things that i've noticed: they need to tighten up the d a little (heyward has been awesome though). and the third base coach needs to toss up the stop sign more often.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock

Agree with all that. What I am asking is even simpler. Assume that 600 and 400 are our true estimations of the teams' capabilities, playing identical schedules in identical parks. Derived with whatever kind of sabermetrics those guys do.

If those assumptions hold, we can use those records as weights for the teams' relative skill.

Then the probability of 600 beating 400 is:

P [600win] * P [400lose]/(([P600win]*P[400lose])+(P [600lose]*P [400win]))

The denominator is all the possible outcomes and the numerator is the outcome were measuring.

In this case it works out to appx 69%. Any flaws in that logic?

Makes sense to me. But I was an English major . . .
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennglock

Agree with all that. What I am asking is even simpler. Assume that 600 and 400 are our true estimations of the teams' capabilities, playing identical schedules in identical parks. Derived with whatever kind of sabermetrics those guys do.

If those assumptions hold, we can use those records as weights for the teams' relative skill.

Then the probability of 600 beating 400 is:

P [600win] * P [400lose]/(([P600win]*P[400lose])+(P [600lose]*P [400win]))

The denominator is all the possible outcomes and the numerator is the outcome were measuring.

In this case it works out to appx 69%. Any flaws in that logic?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambo

Without getting too nerdy, I think you could safely say 6 or 7 out of 10.

good to see the Marlins dead last where they belong. fuck you Loria, you hedgehog fucker
Quote:
Originally Posted by HRoi

good to see the Marlins dead last where they belong. fuck you Loria, you hedgehog fucker

AFUCKINGMEN

Extra innings losses

I'm going to be a Fish fan or Phillies fan this year. It has been decided.
just know that supporting the Marlins is like voting for Satan
Well I was going to be a Phills fan for the assholishness of it, but supporting Satan seems even more baller.

ALL HAIL LORIA!

Florida is a crapass sports state. The Rays are good but still nobody goes. Last time I was down there Heat tickets could be had for ~20.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EMartNJ

Florida is a crapass sports state. The Rays are good but still nobody goes. Last time I was down there Heat tickets could be had for ~20.

Guess what hoops team I like?

Also, part of the Heat thing is that...well, its Miami. There's plenty else to do. And the Rays' stadium is awful and even worse to get to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HRoi

good to see the Marlins dead last where they belong. fuck you Loria, you hedgehog fucker

Hey- don't diss our hedgehog's memory.

She died way too young.

She was awesome.
He's baaaaaaack! Papa Grande. Lord, have mercy on the Tigers.
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