Quote:
Originally Posted by
ChicagoRon 
I think anyone who takes a Superstar QB early in the draft is guilty of malpractice. Unless you are in the 49ers (Montana/Young) or Packers (Favre/Rogers) situation, QBs are too big a risk. If you need a QB to play in the next two years, you should draft other positions and trade for a proven vet QB. For every Manning, Brees out there, there are a ton of Tim Couch / Brady Quinns and there are also a ton of Tom Bradys (low draft pick, high NFL performer).
Just how many of those Tom Bradys are out there?
Of good NFL QBs (in no particular order)
Tom Brady #199
Peyton Manning #1 pick
Eli Manning #1 pick
Matt Ryan #3 pick
Ben Roethlisberger #11 pick
Tony Romo undrafted
Aaron Rodgers #24
Matt Stafford #1 pick
Phillip Rivers #4 pick
Cam Newton #1 pick
Sam Bradford #1 pick
I'm sure I missed some, but pretty high fraction of first round (and especially #1) picks up in there. Lots of first round draft QBs fail horribly, but if you really want to get your franchise QBs, you're more likely to find them in the first round than anywhere else. Franchises don't want to look stupid for taking a failure, but the rewards are big.