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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 654

post #9796 of 11165
oh man I need a drink. gonna make it a double. foo.gif
post #9797 of 11165
Shit I wished I'd bought it EOD yesterday. The fact that the market was so bullish and overconfident before the Brexit vote should make everyone understand that these central and investment bank fuckwads don't know shit. I have zero faith that anything will go well over the next few months.
post #9798 of 11165
Y'all got major balls. I ain't buying shit going into the weekend. I want to see the dust settle over a couple days first and monitor the headline rhetoric.
post #9799 of 11165
I think it gets worse next week, now that they're doing this all of the fallout will start to surface.

If your economy is running smoothly....why do this? hah.
post #9800 of 11165

I have been overweight equities, underweight bonds so this should even things out a little.  I didn't buy anything today as Monday will be interesting after a weekend of digestion.  It would be interesting to see a poll in 30, 60, 90 days to see if people thought the Brexit was a good idea.

post #9801 of 11165
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

I think it gets worse next week, now that they're doing this all of the fallout will start to surface.

If your economy is running smoothly....why do this? hah.

I'm a buyer on the way down.

Why do this? It was a peasants revolt. Lots of elite voices telling you this was going to be good for you, then 20 years on their towns are flooded with new faces doing their jobs at lower wages. The folks in London can't relate because lower skill workers don't effect their socioeconomic standing, so the answer is their economy was running smoothly in the eyes of some. It explains a lot about our own political cycle.
post #9802 of 11165
wow VIX, lots of movement. I don't play with those sort of instruments but wow, was down 20% yesterday then up 50% today. Also one of the gold indexes I'm following was up 20% today.

Honest question here... when this kind of thing happens, isn't something like VIX almost a sure bet? I mean whether things go up or down, there's going to be a lot of movement and trading so would it make sense pending any major announcement or even just the whole earnings season to buy VIX? what causes it to go down?
post #9803 of 11165
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master-Classter View Post

wow VIX, lots of movement. I don't play with those sort of instruments but wow, was down 20% yesterday then up 50% today. Also one of the gold indexes I'm following was up 20% today.

Honest question here... when this kind of thing happens, isn't something like VIX almost a sure bet? I mean whether things go up or down, there's going to be a lot of movement and trading so would it make sense pending any major announcement or even just the whole earnings season to buy VIX? what causes it to go down?


Eh, VIX would have been a bad bet if the vote went the other way... seems clear that markets priced in a Remain vote to a certain extent.

 

I was kicking myself a little this morning for not taking a small position just in case, but I valued being "safe" more than the financial loss in a "Remain" circumstance.  Good decision, bad outcome. Always chase good decisions.

post #9804 of 11165
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master-Classter View Post

wow VIX, lots of movement. I don't play with those sort of instruments but wow, was down 20% yesterday then up 50% today. Also one of the gold indexes I'm following was up 20% today.

Honest question here... when this kind of thing happens, isn't something like VIX almost a sure bet? I mean whether things go up or down, there's going to be a lot of movement and trading so would it make sense pending any major announcement or even just the whole earnings season to buy VIX? what causes it to go down?

I am by no means an expert on these instruments but I'll tell you what I've learned over the last two weeks playing with the UVXY, TVIX, etc which track against the VIX but get their 'value' from futures. They are heart achingly volatile and all speculative. I thought that they would be a no-brainer going into the Brexit vote but shit was I wrong. Last week they were up, I bought some, and then this week the market stayed super bullish pre-Brexit and they tanked until the leave vote. Currently, I think they are a no-brainer at this price level, but hell I may eat my words in days to come. They suffer from contango (just look at the 5 year) so they will naturally decline until 0. The key is to play the spikes and then get the heck out. They also can suffer reverse splits.

From watching the stocktwits feed, I think the only real VIX players are day traders who typically just short the little spikes for lots of small trades throughout the day, so the instruments kind of eat themselves. I dont plan to go near them again until this mess is cleared up.
post #9805 of 11165
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkebh979 View Post


Eh, VIX would have been a bad bet if the vote went the other way... seems clear that markets priced in a Remain vote to a certain extent.

It would have been a horrible hold if it went Bremain. Like, down 40%.
post #9806 of 11165
Quote:
Originally Posted by horndog View Post


It would have been a horrible hold if it went Bremain. Like, down 40%.


Eh, down sure, but related to the gap between Leave and Remain.  

 

These instruments are fun for paper trades and i-told-you-so's... useful for small positions if you think you can time things (which LBH, if you're posting stock tips on SF, you probably cannot)... but way outside of my risk threshold for general investing.

post #9807 of 11165
Okay, need the SF pros to 'splain this one to me.

Someone is telling me they sold some covered calls that were in the money at the time they sold them. If the premium was less than the strike price vs. spot the buyer could exercise immediately and profit, no? And the seller would lose.
post #9808 of 11165
Thanks for the responses on VIX guys. I basically just buy/sell individual stocks (15-20) and hold a few REITS and indexes. I don't know much about options or intend to ever get much involved in them but I do track a few for fun just because of how much they move around.
post #9809 of 11165
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Okay, need the SF pros to 'splain this one to me.

Someone is telling me they sold some covered calls that were in the money at the time they sold them. If the premium was less than the strike price vs. spot the buyer could exercise immediately and profit, no? And the seller would lose.
If I understand your question, yes. It would be very odd for the premium to be less than the delta between the strike price and market/spot price at the time the calls were sold.
You probably know this, but "in the money" talks about the relationship between strike and spot but tells you nothing about the premium.
post #9810 of 11165
Y'all ready to hemorrhage more monies tomorrow?

Edit: in b4 QE4 lol8[1].gif
Edited by GreenFrog - 6/26/16 at 3:56pm
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