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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 638

post #9556 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post
 

 

I am not a credit guy, but here's some numbers.

 

Lending Club, price to loan book = 3.2B / 4.5B = 0.71

OnDeck, price-to-loan-book = 444M / 573M = 0.77

 

vs.


Bank of America, Price-to-(total debt securities + loan and leases) = 127B / 1310B = 0.10

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post


I was short LC since last year.

High risk credit, spread will widen, default will be more than expected, loan volume will shrink all at the same time at the end of business cycle.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post
 

I just came across Lending Club.

 

All the worst elements of 2008 combined. 

 

LC is a credit play all about default rate.  Unregulated loan sharking company masquerade as "FinTech".

 

China p2p lending is far worse still (or far greater profiteering opportunity), LC co-founder is running a shop in Shanghai again. There are probably hundreds of them all doing the same shit; financing speculative real estate investments.  Instead of taking second ARM mortgage to finance down payments, now they go onto p2p lending sites!!

post #9557 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post


Munger's been slipping into intentionally provocative cranky old man mode the last few years, kind of like late career John McCain.

 

Long peanut butter brittle futures.

post #9558 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post
 

 

 

 

 

LC is a credit play all about default rate.  Unregulated loan sharking company masquerade as "FinTech".

 

China p2p lending is far worse still (or far greater profiteering opportunity), LC co-founder is running a shop in Shanghai again. There are probably hundreds of them all doing the same shit; financing speculative real estate investments.  Instead of taking second ARM mortgage to finance down payments, now they go onto p2p lending sites!!

That is absolutely crazy.

 

I actually didn't realize they were public. I would have hoped on that short. Actually I may still once I investigate how strong their verification process is.

 

How are you short?

 

Chogall what do you do as a day job? I'm always impressed by your financial knowledge. 

post #9559 of 11194

Was short their equities.

 

In finance but won't go into too much details.

post #9560 of 11194
chogall is Charlie Munger.
post #9561 of 11194
Quote:

Lending Club, price to loan book = 3.2B / 4.5B = 0.71
OnDeck, price-to-loan-book = 444M / 573M = 0.77

vs.

Bank of America, Price-to-(total debt securities + loan and leases) = 127B / 1310B = 0.10


...



High risk credit, spread will widen, default will be more than expected, loan volume will shrink all at the same time at the end of business cycle.

So you're saying that the food is terrible and the portions are too small?
post #9562 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post
 

Was short their equities.

 

In finance but won't go into too much details.

Come on, sell side, buy side? Debt? Equities? That's as far as I'll go. 

post #9563 of 11194
chogall strikes me as working in distressed debt.
post #9564 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

chogall is Charlie Munger.

 

I am 25% John Lobb instead of 25% Coke like Buffet

post #9565 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post
 

Come on, sell side, buy side? Debt? Equities? That's as far as I'll go. 

 

Equities in Dallas

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

chogall strikes me as working in distressed debt.

 

The only thing distressing is I am net short going into today.

post #9566 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Concordia View Post


So you're saying that the food is terrible and the portions are too small?

 

And some customer might just walk out of the door without paying and some other customers might request the whole ticket comp'ed.

 

On a side note, ONDK down 28% after they report.

 

Its ludicrous to hear that these lenders claiming their "big data" "crowd sourced" credit model will get better as they originate more loans. Like banks and credit card processors arent doing that already a decade ago...

post #9567 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post
 

 

Equities in Dallas

 

I'll be in Austin the rest of this week. Excited to see Texas. 

Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post
 

 

And some customer might just walk out of the door without paying and some other customers might request the whole ticket comp'ed.

 

On a side note, ONDK down 28% after they report.

 

Its ludicrous to hear that these lenders claiming their "big data" "crowd sourced" credit model will get better as they originate more loans. Like banks and credit card processors arent doing that already a decade ago...

Hearing people try to defend these companies even just today is crazy. It's like they're missing the basic underlying math and understanding of risk that is at the heart of credit. 

post #9568 of 11194
Excited? Lucky you won't be near the flooding.


Anyway - what platforms are you guys using for your trades?
post #9569 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by venividivicibj View Post

Excited? Lucky you won't be near the flooding.


Anyway - what platforms are you guys using for your trades?

Sunny weather in Austin!

 

Trade King for Roth, Robinhood for normal trades.

 

I used Eikon for price discovery though.

post #9570 of 11194
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

Equities in Dallas


The only thing distressing is I am net short going into today.

You sir are a Liar who plays Poker.
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