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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 637

post #9541 of 11195
This thread made me think about all of my trading activity since the Summer crash in August and how it has fared. Here is a little summary (all purchases, since last sales were in 2014, and relatively small):
BRK.A +
BRK.B +
MBLY +
COP +/=
I also bought some Emerson Electric that has done well but I am not counting it since it was an error (meant for another account).
I also made two purchases that have declined (one 13% and one 3.24%) that I don't want to name and are highly illiquid.
post #9542 of 11195
The IBB discussion might have been me? I was toying with it around the 290-320/330 range and then left it alone. Then started buying it a few months ago after the Hilary tweet and the whole thing dropped a LOT. It's come back up but adding in VRX, MNKD, and another one I'm forgetting, basically a few big hits and concern about the whole industry, I mean hell even GILD was down pretty hard, so I decided the individual players were too risky (still regret not getting GILD under 90 though) and just bought the index. It hasn't really recovered to where it was just yet but I'm hanging in there....


Quite a few moves for me today.

Sold FB as mentioned.
Sold a few LNKD pre-earnings tonight because I'm worried. Bought a few shares at 110-115 and sold them now for 125 more or less and will hold my breath for tonight. If it jumps to 130 I'll probably sell off a chunk, if it drops to 110 or under I'm doubling down.

EDIT - so looks like I missed out with LNKD. Sold some premarket but basically aftermarket bought a bunch of shares and played around between 127-129 then 129-131 etc and squeezed out a little more profit. Then Questrade stopped me trading after 5:30pm booo. Maybe premarket action next?

Bought some more MSFT and FSLR on the incrimental dip
Added a few more TWTR because it seems to be holding steady. I was waiting for another 3-5% drop to add but doesn't seem there yet....
Edited by Master-Classter - 4/28/16 at 4:18pm
post #9543 of 11195
All these huge beats and gains in the tech sector giving me a major case of FOMO with my lump of coals that is AAPL. Makes me want to go full on 1.5X leverage and YOLO on other earnings to make up for "missed out gains" which is entirely bullshit, obviously.

What this really means is I should sit tight on my ass and not do anything stupid.
post #9544 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

All these huge beats and gains in the tech sector giving me a major case of FOMO with my lump of coals that is AAPL. Makes me want to go full on 1.5X leverage and YOLO on other earnings to make up for "missed out gains" which is entirely bullshit, obviously.

What this really means is I should sit tight on my ass and not do anything stupid.

Yeah to the last sentence.

Apple was, is, and will be Steve Jobs. I'm sure there are plays, both short and long, where you can make money on AAPL, but I wouldn't bet the house/YOLO/leverage on them.

On the successful companies side, there are two types of founders/CEOs. One is the Gates, Edison, Rockefeller, Watson, Ford, etc. type that realize when their company and products are a commodity and put together a transition plan that acknowledges that and they move on to legacy mode (invariably philanthropy). This happens decades before any public announcement. The other is the type that think there's some new thing they need to figure out until they're six feet under like Jobs, Musk, and despite him being younger than me, Zuck.
post #9545 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramuman View Post


Yeah to the last sentence.

Apple was, is, and will be Steve Jobs. I'm sure there are plays, both short and long, where you can make money on AAPL, but I wouldn't bet the house/YOLO/leverage on them.

On the successful companies side, there are two types of founders/CEOs. One is the Gates, Edison, Rockefeller, Watson, Ford, etc. type that realize when their company and products are a commodity and put together a transition plan that acknowledges that and they move on to legacy mode (invariably philanthropy). This happens decades before any public announcement. The other is the type that think there's some new thing they need to figure out until they're six feet under like Jobs, Musk, and despite him being younger than me, Zuck.

 

Musk's business strategy/style is typical of the Chinese tycoons instead of the American legacies, i.e., high risk cross portfolio company financing deals risking personal capital or state subsidies in the process.

 

Exactly the same as Jack Ma, Pony Ma, Jia Yueting, Zhao Weiguo, etc.

 

More wolves than lions.  More hordes than empires.

 

Zuck and Jobs are more empire building types that takes incremental risks.

post #9546 of 11195

Munger dissed $VRX...

post #9547 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

Musk's business strategy/style is typical of the Chinese tycoons instead of the American legacies, i.e., high risk cross portfolio company financing deals risking personal capital or state subsidies in the process.

Exactly the same as Jack Ma, Pony Ma, Jia Yueting, Zhao Weiguo, etc.

More wolves than lions.  More hordes than empires.

Zuck and Jobs are more empire building types that takes incremental risks.

I wouldn't put Musk in the same league as the opportunistic Chinese and Russians. I think Musk constantly thinks of stuff and wants it to exist, which is definitely not wolfish.

I have a ton of respect for people like the ones you listed (I'd add Robin Li as well). I meant more in terms of what one person means to a company looking back.
post #9548 of 11195
Musk is definitely way below the Chinese guys. But one thing in common: they all leveraged way up using OPM via debt financing with decade long prescience. TSLA disrupted auto market, LeTV killed it in media, BABA betting big in banking, etc, all started at least a decade before deregulation or eventuality.

Robin Li is more empire builder like Gates, or say, Terry Gou or Morris Chang.

Interesting how people complaint or praise about FB/GOOG type share structures for other long term bets. And yet the Chinese dot com guys are doing leagues better.
post #9549 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

Musk is definitely way below the Chinese guys. But one thing in common: they all leveraged way up using OPM via debt financing with decade long prescience. TSLA disrupted auto market, LeTV killed it in media, BABA betting big in banking, etc, all started at least a decade before deregulation or eventuality.

Robin Li is more empire builder like Gates, or say, Terry Gou or Morris Chang.

Interesting how people complaint or praise about FB/GOOG type share structures for other long term bets. And yet the Chinese dot com guys are doing leagues better.

I think we're drifting quite a bit from my initial point.

The Chinese guys are doing well because of - a Chinese firewall.

What Brin and Page did with Backrub/PageRank was fundamentally different and innovative; I doubt any comp sci or math person would take that away. What Zuck did with FB's social media curation was fundamentally different. What Jobs did...well, nearly wherever he tried was different. What Gates did in making command line and GUI OSs mainstream was fundamentally different. I could go on and on.

Thing is, there is next to no innovation that comes from what the Chinese are doing, other than their population being a great starting point - which I think is important and they're doing a better job than the other 3 BRIC countries in getting that.
post #9550 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramuman View Post


I think we're drifting quite a bit from my initial point.

The Chinese guys are doing well because of - a Chinese firewall.

What Brin and Page did with Backrub/PageRank was fundamentally different and innovative; I doubt any comp sci or math person would take that away. What Zuck did with FB's social media curation was fundamentally different. What Jobs did...well, nearly wherever he tried was different. What Gates did in making command line and GUI OSs mainstream was fundamentally different. I could go on and on.

Thing is, there is next to no innovation that comes from what the Chinese are doing, other than their population being a great starting point - which I think is important and they're doing a better job than the other 3 BRIC countries in getting that.

 

True.  My point was, there are empire builders and there are wolves; Musk is in the latter.  The empire builders takes are expansionary industrialists going for adjacent markets with what's already in the bags, i.e., Gates going from OS to productivity, Jobs going from PC to cell phones, Zuck buying Instagram (brilliant move btw, we had a discussion back in '12 about how FB protects its moat - billion dollar acquisitions).  The wolves pounce on opportunities in non-related markets, i.e., Alibaba went into banking, Giant went from selling vitamins to gaming, LeTV went from streaming movies to selling cell phones, etc.

 

Google is an engineering company at heart, but so was Inktomi except it went belly up and got acquired.  We could go on and on about technology innovation (INTC, SNDK, GOOG, VMW, Palantir, etc) vs. design innovation (FB, AAPL, etc) vs. business model innovations (AMZN, CRM, etc).  The unfortunate thing about this boom is more WebVAN 2.0 than, say, PiedPiper.

 

We excel in technology innovations as we have large influx of foreign scientific talented to top Universities. Cal/Stanford/MIT EECS program is like a reunion for top IIT/Tsinghua students when I was in school back during the last boom.

 

China excels in the business model and now design innovations with their wolf like moves supported by a huge domestic market, the Great Firewall is merely an argument undermining their success. Tencent was monetizing chat long before there's FB.  Nowadays, hardware technology innovations are shifting heavily to China, see: selfie sticks, electronic cigarettes, consumer drones, hover boards, etc.  The Chinese audiophile products are even winning heart and souls on HeadFi.

 

AAPL, there's this little Curse of Silicon Valley - building of new big campus typically marks a peak of the company valuation, temporary or fatal.  Apple is building its Spaceship on Wolfe/Homestead.  Now, it's probably going to do fine with its huge war chest, but there's always risk that they become Kodak. This is tech after all; there are only a few 40+ years old companies swimming around seas of unicorn corpses.

post #9551 of 11195

p.s., was short $AAPL since 110s, stopped out at 95s, reentered short into earnings around 105s.

post #9552 of 11195
@chogall - I think we're on the same wavelength.

I do want to add that I have a huge observational bias towards SNDK and INTC. My advisor in grad school was one of the co-founders of SNDK and Eli Harari was one of his post-docs.

Your grouping makes a lot of sense - I think few people would see how similar VMW and Palantir are for example beyond being software companies. My initial point was simply about what the face of the company means. For example, Palantir likely doesn't exist without Thiel, but he's also not nearly the charismatic face that a Jobs was to Apple, and from the PayPal mafia, Musk is the most recognizable face for any of the companies that came afterwards. That was my simpleton point.

Also, agree on (1) Apple's spaceship campus/perhaps jumping the shark and (2) audiophile stuff as broader proxies (unrelated, of course). I used to build and sell amps on head-fi and a few other places. I'm still a Shure and Sennheiser man, but the times, they are a changing smile.gif.
post #9553 of 11195

I have good respect for SNDK.  In the semiconductor space there are few innovators and many designers; SNDK is/used to be the former.  INTC has been doing those "moonshot" experiment that GOOG is trying for decades; their labs are doing border line academic viability research for new techs.  All those neural network face recognition buzz has been done by Intel Lab more than a decade ago.

 

I like Thiel; a homosexual, libertarian Republican in the Valley, and a good venture investor.  His track record at Clarium sucks though, but its expected to happen for a Global Macro tourist.

 

I was a Shure fan but now I am in love w/ VE Zen.  The sound is damn smooth.  Still though, couldn't find any headphone comparable to my Sonus Faber because they are fucking headphones, but then no system setup could reproduce the sound field of listening to Symphony No.9 or Carmina Buena live in a concert hall.

post #9554 of 11195

I just came across Lending Club.

 

All the worst elements of 2008 combined. 

post #9555 of 11195
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

Munger dissed $VRX...

Munger's been slipping into intentionally provocative cranky old man mode the last few years, kind of like late career John McCain.
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