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post #9331 of 11419

That makes sense.  I've been including it but something today made me think about not adding it.

 

It has been a good week for the markets and fvcking CHK.

post #9332 of 11419
Great week for VALE and BHP. Wish I bought that ONDK last week as well, up 30% since I added to my watchlist. Sitting on a nice pile of cash now ready to BTFD when it comes. Also accumulating VRX under $63.
post #9333 of 11419
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post


Yep. Sold my FCX stake too soon it seems.

VRX looks destined to stay in the dumps. At least AAPL is plugging along nicely.

Re VRX, I'm not worried long term. Still consistently adding more. 

post #9334 of 11419
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

Re VRX, I'm not worried long term. Still consistently adding more. 

What's your PT for VRX?
post #9335 of 11419
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post


What's your PT for VRX?

Not something I'd be comfortable sharing.

 

In general I don't believe we should trade at a discount to cash EBITDA relative to peers. 

post #9336 of 11419
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

Not something I'd be comfortable sharing.

In general I don't believe we should trade at a discount to cash EBITDA relative to peers. 

Well, I'd say that the discounting is due to all the negative sentiment / risk associated with the stock. Of course, the degree to how much the stock "should" be discounted is up for debate.
post #9337 of 11419
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post


Well, I'd say that the discounting is due to all the negative sentiment / risk associated with the stock. Of course, the degree to how much the stock "should" be discounted is up for debate.

I'd agree.

 

The situation is somewhat binary. Either the issues are true or they aren't. This almost transforms it into an expected value calculation.

post #9338 of 11419
A slight bounceback... but still down like 5% on the year.
post #9339 of 11419
Wow, ended upselling off GLF up a ton but if I'd waited just an hour longer until market close, would have gained another 10-15% or more on the position. Sold at 5.75 and 6.5, closed at 7.35. Not quite sure on the numbers and it was a small position but I think it was about a 50% gain more or less. Still, damn, sucks to sell something and within an hour see it go up another 10-15%.


Nearly ready to sell of CHK and CPG too and trim positions on QCOM and DIS. Sold off a few TLSA's at 205 but holding most of it for 220-230 range.
post #9340 of 11419
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master-Classter View Post

Wow, ended upselling off GLF up a ton but if I'd waited just an hour longer until market close, would have gained another 10-15% or more on the position.
No, you wouldn't. It's like packing an umbrella. If you'd held onto those shares it wouldn't have gone up like that. wink.gif
post #9341 of 11419
Sorry MC. I was buying some GLF shares right into the close. Accidentally moved the market in doing so.

Shoulda used dat dark pool instead shog[1].gif
post #9342 of 11419
well, bulls bears pigs right? I know that whenever I buy down it's going to keep going down after that, and whenever it comes up and I trim it's going to keep going up after that. The trick is to get in before the bottom and out before the top and keep the money moving from roller coaster to roller coaster. All in all, considering I started buying it around that 5-6 range but probably effectively doubled down closer to the 2-3 range, getting out from 4-6 overall I think I did ok. Happy to have the money back with some returns and have a pile of buy orders already set for if/when the prices come down. I think this one sucked particularly because it's not like I see it going up weeks later bit by bit, it was literally the course of days and in this case an hour. I sold a lot a week or two ago and if I'd waited until now I would have doubled it all. C'est la vie.
post #9343 of 11419
Dat Draghi Dovishness
post #9344 of 11419
What are peoples' thoughts on the broader biotech sector?

Thinking about buying some XBI or IBB.
post #9345 of 11419
I'm holding IBB. I was playing around at the 300-330 range buying and selling a few months ago then got bored and moved on. When it dropped recently under 300 again, I started picking some up around 290 down to I think around 240 or so. I'm averaged around 260-270 give or take and am holding out for a recovery. Planning to trim at 300 and sell at 330-340.

As for whether or not to get into it, well hmmm. From what I've read, the general opinion seems to be that the sector was due for some correction of sorts, since it has been doing quite a run up over the years so I suspect that some of this drop is an overdue pressure relief, and it was just looking for a catalyst, which it got from a few places... There was VRX, MNKD, etc and Hilary tweeting about it, etc, so some high profile notes, some questionable accounting, some price gauging, etc. So I think that the sector was sort of due for a pull back anyway, but a few bad incidents also gave it an overcorrection there.

Meaning it might be a while before it ever gets back to that 300 range... but that being said I think it may have been oversold and I've got more buy orders from 230-250 and am comfortable picking it up in that range. Would I recommend someone buy in at 270-290? Probably not. I think it'll come back up, but that's still leaving a lot of room to go lower. From the 255 it's at now... Could there be some other incident that knocks it further? Sure. Plus I think there might still be some uneasyness related to who's getting elected. Now I like biotech in general because I think it offers plenty of volatility, meaning opportunity for gains, and buying the index is a lot safer than trying to pick individual companies, so I like IBB. Like I said I'm in around an average of 260-270 I think and will happily buy more at 250, 240, and 230 (if it gets there), and plan to trim close to 300. So potentially a +20% return over the next 6 months to a year, with a few unknowns and risk, but the stability of an entire industry index. So risk/reward wise, it works for me. I'd feel more comfortable recommending this one at say 250 or less, and a nibble at 250 with stronger buys closer to that 240 and 230 mark with a little allocation left just in case it goes further.

I'm still fairly new to all this stuff and those are my thoughts on it. I'd really be open to hearing any thoughts about this, whether for or against etc. And these are just my feelings about it, I've done no technical analysis or math here...

The other thing I'd look into is also adding to the biotech allocation that follows clinical stage biotechs (I think BBC?)
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