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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 612

post #9166 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

Thoughts on MU?

Agreed on the longevity of light crude. 

Helps that SA built up its massive wealth fund. Other countries have been burning through everything they take in. 

Micron makes a commodity product. They've had a good collaboration with INTC. I would just worry that they play in a space that Samsung or Sandisk or yada yada could dominate with one innovation. The entire semiconductor industry is the same way in my view.
post #9167 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post


Happened before in steel. Happened before in DRAM. Happening now in NAND. And happening now for plastics.
 

 

My money is on Samsung for NAND.  They're doing exactly what they did in the DRAM days, and their competitors are going to lose because they're following the same losing strategy.

post #9168 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

Only long term thinkers increase capex and supply to squeeze out their competitors during a downturn.

Happened before in steel. Happened before in DRAM. Happening now in NAND. And happening now for plastics.

It's going to be the same for crude.

Pretty hard for patent protected guys or software guys to understand. Physical products goes through cleansing every cycle.

p.s., light crude will remain essential over at least the next 50 years. Heating, military, consumer materials.

Ironic you would say that with what you said about Tesla. They're the very definition of that.
post #9169 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramuman View Post

Ironic you would say that with what you said about Tesla. They're the very definition of that.

Battery modules isn't the same as cars. Most automakers shall overtake TSLA in unit volume within a year or two.
post #9170 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by brokencycle View Post

My money is on Samsung for NAND.  They're doing exactly what they did in the DRAM days, and their competitors are going to lose because they're following the same losing strategy.

Actually, Samsung has the family feud problem. SNDK is going thorough a pending merger which is a huge distraction for execution.

MU is much less distracted, still consolidating its JV.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramuman View Post

Micron makes a commodity product. They've had a good collaboration with INTC. I would just worry that they play in a space that Samsung or Sandisk or yada yada could dominate with one innovation. The entire semiconductor industry is the same way in my view.

By that definition, Intel makes commodity products as well. So does Qualcomm and Mediatek. CSCO routers are commodities as well. Or CRM saas. Hell even AWS and Azure are commodity products.

Switching cost from Samsung NAND to MU NAND is quite high for high end storage boxes or integrated boards, specifically regarding the timing and predictive algorithm used in controllers.

The technology direction for Samsung NAND is drastically different than SNDK and MU NAND.
post #9171 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchapiro View Post

Thoughts on MU?

Agreed on the longevity of light crude. 

Helps that SA built up its massive wealth fund. Other countries have been burning through everything they take in. 

MU is here to stay for next few decades. It's one huge national security strategic asset that happens to be at the leading edge of precision manufacturing in the US.

The problem is when and how the semiconductor cycle will turn. TSM/SPIL at the front/backend said the inventory correction in China is over. MU expects 2H recovery. But personally I suspect this downturn will last much longer due to 1) slowdown in SaaS/enterprise/data center sending, 2) lengthening of cell phone upgrade cycle from subsidies reduction.

Semi is the leading indicators of world economy and its been pretty gloomy...
post #9172 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

Actually, Samsung has the family feud problem. SNDK is going thorough a pending merger which is a huge distraction for execution.

MU is much less distracted, still consolidating its JV.
By that definition, Intel makes commodity products as well. So does Qualcomm and Mediatek. CSCO routers are commodities as well. Or CRM saas. Hell even AWS and Azure are commodity products.

Switching cost from Samsung NAND to MU NAND is quite high for high end storage boxes or integrated boards, specifically regarding the timing and predictive algorithm used in controllers.

The technology direction for Samsung NAND is drastically different than SNDK and MU NAND.

The original question was what I think about MU and what I answered.
post #9173 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

Battery modules isn't the same as cars. Most automakers shall overtake TSLA in unit volume within a year or two.

Hmm...I think every major automaker already sells an order of magnitude more cars than TSLA as of today.
post #9174 of 11182
I have a feeling TSLA and TWTR are going to pop like crazy on earnings today.
post #9175 of 11182
damn, I'm holding MU and QCOMM too. Haaa, it's like every single stock I own has gone down the tubes.

Here's hoping TSLA and TWTR can pop a little so I can trim since i'm pretty over weighted on both.
post #9176 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

I have a feeling TSLA and TWTR are going to pop like crazy on earnings today.

Elon will say something moronic and awkward during the conference call. It'll start with 'Umm...well I think...'

#mancrush
post #9177 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramuman View Post

Elon will say something moronic and awkward during the conference call. It'll start with 'Umm...well I think...'

#mancrush

Quote:
Originally Posted by Master-Classter View Post

damn, I'm holding MU and QCOMM too. Haaa, it's like every single stock I own has gone down the tubes.

Here's hoping TSLA and TWTR can pop a little so I can trim since i'm pretty over weighted on both.

Y'all enjoying dat sweet sweet TSLA pop?

Also lol at twitters QoQ MAU growth: zero! That's just pitiful.

Crazy AH action with the stock tho. Saw it down 14% at one point. Now it's flat.
post #9178 of 11182
Not much of a pop if you look back a whopping 3 days...
post #9179 of 11182

Don't ruin it for him.  He's 60% cash anyway.

post #9180 of 11182
TSLA was a nice jump there, I managed to sell a few shares I bought this morning at 147 right at 164 so that was good. Still, was only a few shares I just happen to pick up this morning out of desperation. Still down fairly hard on the whole position since i started buying it at about 220...


TWTR, damn, saw it go down about 10+% and didn't buy any, now it's basically back to regular numbers. Weird.
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