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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 586

post #8776 of 11182
Fair enough, I keep forgetting how astronomical the odds really are (and yes, EV would never really be positive since people would figure out out and buy shit tons of tickets, thus reducing EV).

$100k is probably not enough to even worry about grabbing for the $50k prizes.
post #8777 of 11182
I hope no one here is still holding onto GPRO.
post #8778 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

I hope no one here is still holding onto GPRO.


(Raises Hand)

 

My cost basis seemed relatively low until this evening's action... trying to debate my next move.

 

Do you guys think it's going to rebound over time, or are they going to continue to fall? All of the numbers seem like they're being traded way too low, but the market keeps reacting differently.

 

 

 

Side note: Between my GPRO and FCX holdings I mentioned a few days ago, I'm starting to question my ability/feelings about trading individual stocks... it's really tough to stomach these kind of dives.

post #8779 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by wsupjs View Post


(Raises Hand)

My cost basis seemed relatively low until this evening's action... trying to debate my next move.

Do you guys think it's going to rebound over time, or are they going to continue to fall? All of the numbers seem like they're being traded way too low, but the market keeps reacting differently.



Side note: Between my GPRO and FCX holdings I mentioned a few days ago, I'm starting to question my ability/feelings about trading individual stocks... it's really tough to stomach these kind of dives.

What % down are they?

What % of your portfolio are they each?

What's your time horizon?
post #8780 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post


What % down are they?

What % of your portfolio are they each?

What's your time horizon?


FCX is down 42% (cost basis approximately $6.50)

GPRO is down 30% before today's post market movement (cost basis approximately $20.50)

 

They total about 25% of my portfolio now. Total position started at 11-12%, but has increased substantially as I purchased more to drop my cost basis.

 

Time horizon is long. 

post #8781 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by dopey View Post

Can someone who follows/invests in the energy sector explain the nutshell difference between XOM, COP, BP and maybe some others? As companies and as investments. TIA

Quote:
Originally Posted by dopey View Post

Bump
Bump. Or should I give up until after the powerball?
post #8782 of 11182
COP is no longer fully integrated. They spun off their refining and retail operations into Phillips 66 several years back. XOM, BP, CVX, RDS are all fully integrated and are part of Big Oil (COP used to be until they split PSX). Also, COP sucks as they always have terrible timing on their major transactions and is running super thin on their cash.
post #8783 of 11182
Apparently at least 10k people pick 1 2 3 4 5 6 every week in the UK lotto (which I assume is a much smaller game).

How much would that blow? You win the billion dollar powerball game and you end up with less than $100k (before taxes)..would probably make you almost as unhappy as actual full-jackpot winners become.

Honestly, I'd almost rather win the $1m side prize. 1-3m would probably be my ideal jackpot. Wouldn't be enough to cause me to quit working, but I could do some cool shit with it without it ruining my life and dragging money-grubbers out of the woodwork (since I could just be like "sorry brah, spent dat shit already").
post #8784 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by wsupjs View Post
 


FCX is down 42% (cost basis approximately $6.50)

GPRO is down 30% before today's post market movement (cost basis approximately $20.50)

 

They total about 25% of my portfolio now. Total position started at 11-12%, but has increased substantially as I purchased more to drop my cost basis.

 

Time horizon is long. 

 

I feel your pain.  I truly do.  No investor is complete without a bear market.

post #8785 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by wsupjs View Post


FCX is down 42% (cost basis approximately $6.50)
GPRO is down 30% before today's post market movement (cost basis approximately $20.50)

They total about 25% of my portfolio now. Total position started at 11-12%, but has increased substantially as I purchased more to drop my cost basis.

Time horizon is long. 

I'd hold FCX for the long term. I think they'll be okay.

GPRO is dicey. I don't believe in the product and I'm iffy on mgmt. They could be an acquisition target, but even then I wonder who would buy them.

I think they're heavily oversold, however, and would expect to see a nice bounce within a couple weeks. Might offload then.
post #8786 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbarwick View Post

It was a group but how the hell are you going to worry about dupes when you are only buying 50,000 out of 292,000,000 possibilities.  I guess if reduced you have something like a 1 in 5,xxx shot at a dupe.

Actually its much higher then that. Same reason why if you have 30 people chances are 2 are born on the same day.
post #8787 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by wsupjs View Post
 


(Raises Hand)

 

My cost basis seemed relatively low until this evening's action... trying to debate my next move.

 

Do you guys think it's going to rebound over time, or are they going to continue to fall? All of the numbers seem like they're being traded way too low, but the market keeps reacting differently.

 

 

 

Side note: Between my GPRO and FCX holdings I mentioned a few days ago, I'm starting to question my ability/feelings about trading individual stocks... it's really tough to stomach these kind of dives.

 

Their December quarter is down ~31% Y/Y.  Negative 31% Y/Y growth for a supposedly high growth company.  And it won't be able to prove itself as a growth company until this time next year, with their ~45% December quarter sales weighting, in my humble opinion.

 

I could say a lot of negative things about the company, but it has ~$3.5/share cash and someone crazy might rescue and buy out this rich boy's toy company.

post #8788 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by otc View Post


Honestly, I'd almost rather win the $1m side prize. 1-3m would probably be my ideal jackpot. Wouldn't be enough to cause me to quit working, but I could do some cool shit with it without it ruining my life and dragging money-grubbers out of the woodwork (since I could just be like "sorry brah, spent dat shit already").

i had the exact same thought.
post #8789 of 11182
Quote:
Originally Posted by fuji View Post


Actually its much higher then that. Same reason why if you have 30 people chances are 2 are born on the same day.


I forgot about that logic.  In that case, they have a 1.3% chance of not having matching numbers in 50,000 tickets. HA

post #8790 of 11182
Moar pain icon_gu_b_slayer[1].gif
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