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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 523

post #7831 of 7839
Haaa, I just came here to post that NFLX is looking good and I'm picking some more up if/when it hits 100. Am I the greater fool?
post #7832 of 7839
Man, the market gyrations are killing me. My August BRK share is barely up more than 1%. FML. How do you guys take it?
post #7833 of 7839
I would not be placing any long term bets on tech stocks with sky high valuations.

Worst case scenario: I see global growth slowing and that pushing us into a bear market. Following that, a total reevaluation of stock valuations where tech stocks get hit the most.

We're already seeing talk about the bubble in tech valuations.

There's a great video from aswath damodaran that was uploaded last night on how bubbles form. I'll link it here when I get home. It's rather interesting.
post #7834 of 7839
Some tech stocks have been in a bubble for couple years already. Specifically the hard core growth/momentum guys, e.g., FB, NFLX, AMZN, PCLN, etc.

Some of them saw valuation adjustment early last year like TWTR or DATA, and some never did.
post #7835 of 7839
post #7836 of 7839

Good video @GreenFrog

 

That's the thing about stocks inside a bubble. They can make speculators terrific amounts of money... until one is too heavily invested as the bubble pops. And how can anyone know when it will pop? Maybe China's recent news has set the pin in motion. Maybe not.

 

Tons of ETFs on sale, with sound fundamentals. Much more comfortable with the long ball myself.

post #7837 of 7839
ETF are not 'on sale' just because their prices are low; they are reflections of their underlying security/index. So are their fundamentals.

ETPs are technically derivative instruments that contain high hidden liquidity risk with some of the ETP more so then the others, such as futures based ETN or thinly traded small ETF. When crisis hits, spread will skyrocket and it would cost a lot to get out.

Commodities/real estate/derivative/foreign securities based ETP are all worse alternative than their underlying.
post #7838 of 7839
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

ETF are not 'on sale' just because their prices are low; they are reflections of their underlying security/index. So are their fundamentals.

ETPs are technically derivative instruments that contain high hidden liquidity risk with some of the ETP more so then the others, such as futures based ETN or thinly traded small ETF. When crisis hits, spread will skyrocket and it would cost a lot to get out.

Commodities/real estate/derivative/foreign securities based ETP are all worse alternative than their underlying.

But they are x% below their 200 day moving average, which means that they are oversold and will fly a flag and pennant back into positive territory.
post #7839 of 7839
Quote:
Originally Posted by chogall View Post

ETF are not 'on sale' just because their prices are low; they are reflections of their underlying security/index. So are their fundamentals.

True, although there was some significant diversion from NAV during the first few down spikes, which did put them on sale relative to their underlying.

 

In other news the market keeps going down...

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