Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

idfnl · Dec 13, 2013

jbarwick said:
Reread what I wrote. If you dislike the company personally then don't own the stock. Then I went on to mention people hate Wal-Mart with a passion but probably own the stock. If you hate Wal-Mart that much then maybe you shouldn't own the stock.

Coca-Cola....great strong company....stock is mediocre but is consistent with dividends.

Seems other have weighed in, to which I agree.

I hate facebook, dont use it but own the stock. Not a fan of Dunkin Donuts or Potbelly but I own them. Don't really like C or BAC as companies but own them. Etc.

Your notion is quaint, but this is not a popularity contest. You buy an equity because it will move in the direction you want it to, **** the rest.

Speaking of FB, finally positive after a buy just before earnings. Up 3%. I should sell but I think the S & P 500 announcement is going to give it some tailwind.

amerikajinda · Dec 13, 2013

stevent said:
Been thinking Eli Lilly for some dividends but sticking to gambling ones for now

Gild is one of my big winners this year and it still has so much upside

Any thoughts on Applied DNA Sciences? Put off reading the WSJ article and missed the 30% jump. Idea behind company sounds good and there is a bit of SF relation with the BB supima cotton.

Personally I'd stay away from APDN - there's a reason it's trading at 17 cents a share... but if you're into gambling then maybe it's worth a chance. But imho, stay away from penny stocks, and buy some more GILD for the upside. It's House money with your previous gains on the stock, so... just go for it!

GreenFrog · Dec 13, 2013

I'm going to stay away from trading equities in the short term.

Gold has piqued my interest, though, and I may buy a large position soon. It's ripe for a comeback soon. Plus, I think we're finally starting to see the beginning of this damn pullback.

Might even withdraw my 401k out of the S&P 500 index fund it's in.

idfnl · Dec 14, 2013

GreenFrog said:
I'm going to stay away from trading equities in the short term.

Gold has piqued my interest, though, and I may buy a large position soon. It's ripe for a comeback soon. Plus, I think we're finally starting to see the beginning of this damn pullback.

Might even withdraw my 401k out of the S&P 500 index fund it's in.

I would not touch gold right now.

I also don't see the beginning of a pullback, we've been in one since Nov 29... what chart are you watching? Both the DJI and INX signaled it. The VIX signaled in mid-Nov. Also, there is regularly a late Dec sell-off, I wouldn't mistake that with a sentiment driven pullback which seems to have already taken place. Could it go lower compounded with tax related and profit taking selling? Sure. Could that trigger even more selling post Jan 1? Sure. But that's a lot of stuff that has to go your way to substantiate your ideas.

I'd sit tight. I put money to work yesterday.

amerikajinda · Dec 14, 2013

Stock ideas for 2014 - anybody going to get some of these?

Fwiw I have 75 shares of $XOM...

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/20...-strategy-names-their-top-10-stocks-for-2014/

Cantabrigian · Dec 14, 2013

GreenFrog said:
I'm going to stay away from trading equities in the short term.

Gold has piqued my interest, though, and I may buy a large position soon. It's ripe for a comeback soon. Plus, I think we're finally starting to see the beginning of this damn pullback.

Might even withdraw my 401k out of the S&P 500 index fund it's in.

I disagree on gold.

No one knows what drives the yellow metal but the best guess I've heard is that it should be proportional to the the world aggregate money supply divided by the aggregate supply of gold. I am clueless about gold supply but there is reason to suspect world money will contract. Only the EU might need to print but the Germans won't let them.

If you think inflation kicks off, long gold makes sense but I think there's way too much slack in every economy outside Asia.

seeldoger47 · Dec 14, 2013

Cantabrigian said:
If you think inflation kicks off, long gold makes sense but I think there's way too much slack in every economy outside Asia.

Why wouldn't you just buy TIPS or equities?

seeldoger47 · Dec 14, 2013

GreenFrog said:
I'm going to stay away from trading equities in the short term.

Gold has piqued my interest, though, and I may buy a large position soon. It's ripe for a comeback soon. Plus, I think we're finally starting to see the beginning of this damn pullback.

Might even withdraw my 401k out of the S&P 500 index fund it's in.

You want to put that much of your net worth into an unproductive asset?

amerikajinda · Dec 14, 2013

More thoughts to consider going into the new year...

http://theyieldgame.com/2013/12/14/the-beginning-construction-of-my-2014-portfolio/

Cantabrigian · Dec 15, 2013

seeldoger47 said:
Why wouldn't you just buy TIPS or equities?

Because I reckon your expected return from gold is probably 10x that of TIPS since their real yield is minuscule and they have duration in a rising rate environment.

Equities is probably a better idea than gold. I'm just talking about what you'd have to believe in order to like gold, assuming you want to like gold.

seeldoger47 · Dec 15, 2013

Cantabrigian said:
No one knows what drives the yellow metal but the best guess I've heard is that it should be proportional to the the world aggregate money supply divided by the aggregate supply of gold. I am clueless about gold supply but there is reason to suspect world money will contract. Only the EU might need to print but the Germans won't let them.

Jeff Gundlach's explanation that gold price is a function of fear and greed is the best one I've heard, even if it is not particularly insightful.

Cantabrigian · Dec 16, 2013

Uncle Warren

Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce -- gold's price as I write this -- its value would be about $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world's most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today's annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers -- whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators -- must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.
A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops -- and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil (XOM) will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.
Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it's likely many will still rush to gold. I'm confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.

idfnl · Dec 18, 2013

Took a risk which worked out today. Just before the fed announcement I put new money to work in RYN. I figured with the housing starts news I had a chance here for a pop and it did. Yay for me. I think I'm going to hold it, I took a bit of profit in WY to trim my exposure to the sector, but net-net new money went in. RYN has a much lower PE than WY and didn't run up nearly as much as the rest of the market so I think there is room there to fill that gap.

In other news, my FB position that I took just before earnings is positive again, actually up 7% now. I am going to hold it for a bit, I think there is still a bit of run up left post the announcement of its inclusion into the S & P 500.

I was going to add to my position in BAC today but was late, it took a jump so I have to wait now.

Sold PLAB. My 24% gain has been at 24% for more than 2 months so I think its run is over and so I took the gain.

I read that recently Jim Cramer recommended Canadian banks, I actually thought it was a solid suggestion in case we get an overall market pullback and also some low PE and solid dividends there. I bought BMO, RY and BNS.

Piobaire · Dec 18, 2013

Canadian banks are so 2009. Remember the Scots worked out that system and it all makes sense.

GreenFrog · Dec 18, 2013

What are everyone's thoughts on mortgage REITs for 2014?

I had ARR a year or so back and enjoyed the monthly dividends. Made out well with that stock.

Since the past 6 months, the whole mREIT sector has taken a huge beating and ARR is trading at its 52-week low. I'm sorely tempted at this level.

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