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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 377

post #5641 of 5654
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post

Nope, I didn't make that assumption at all. But keep on feeding your persecution complex if it gets you through the day.

And you can keep trying to pigeon hole me into your belief system.
post #5642 of 5654
Does this thread really have to come to blows every few pages?
post #5643 of 5654
yes... fight!!!
post #5644 of 5654
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

Does this thread really have to come to blows every few pages?

Probably works better in the Adventures in Online Dating thread.
post #5645 of 5654
I wish my posts in that thread came to blows
post #5646 of 5654
Wasn't there some recent work about a random number generation masquerading as a market simulation and people believing they were actually calling the market moves because they have a "feeling" or felt their "intuition" was superior?
post #5647 of 5654
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

I've done extremely well over the last 25 years, might not work or make sense for everyone, but it does for me.

Back to heuristics - potential for affirmation bias and overconfidence bias.

Some food for thought:

S&P is up ~600% over the last 25 years with a Beta of ~1 and tracking error of zero. Have you done any real portfolio attribution? Have you measured your performance vs. the broad market? Have you measured how much risk you are taking vs. the broad market?

Additional food for thought:

Even someone doing things the wrong way can get good results, just like someone playing blackjack with sub-optimal strategy can win money. Doesn't mean it makes sense to play blackjack with sub-optimal strategy.



I'm just casually entertaining myself with this thread, so I don't know if it was you (idfnl) or someone else saying stuff like this, but the reason I think you and/or others are doing things wrong is because I'm seeing suggestions about darting in and out of stocks based on how the outlook for things in 25 years is pretty good.

Or darting in and out of stocks based on where the stock price is compared to where it was. And various other things I'm far too lazy/uninvested to look up.

Anyway, you can push back, do your thing, fine, who cares. But maybe some useful takeaways for the beginners.
post #5648 of 5654
Quote:
Originally Posted by archetypal_yuppie View Post

S&P is up ~600% over the last 25 years with a Beta of ~1 and tracking error of zero. Have you done any real portfolio attribution? Have you measured your performance vs. the broad market? Have you measured how much risk you are taking vs. the broad market?

That's a hard question to answer because new money is regularly being introduced to my portfolio. I don't keep 25 year old charts. It's safe to say I've 6x my 25 year old money and later I've outperformed just with GOOG + AAPL on they're own. Was I lucky/blackjacking to do that with 2 stocks? An argument can be made...

My performance is consistent with or better than the broader market in general terms.

I take moderately more risk than the broad market/average investor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by archetypal_yuppie View Post

Even someone doing things the wrong way can get good results, just like someone playing blackjack with sub-optimal strategy can win money. Doesn't mean it makes sense to play blackjack with sub-optimal strategy.

Perhaps. But over such a long period, I have a hard time believing that to be the case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by archetypal_yuppie View Post

reason I think you and/or others are doing things wrong is because I'm seeing suggestions about darting in and out of stocks based on how the outlook for things in 25 years is pretty good.

Per my comment yesterday, it's germane to the nature of the thread. I tend to come here and post the quick in and out moves, quick wins and dog shit losses (GTAT -FTW). It's kinda boring to come here and talk about a 10 year hold on a position. I segment about 25-35% of my portfolio (depending on market conditions even less, like 0%) for quicker horizon trades, day trades, speculation. That money is what I post most about here. In general, most of my money is = average market risks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by archetypal_yuppie View Post

Anyway, you can push back, do your thing, fine, who cares. But maybe some useful takeaways for the beginners.

Perhaps the beginners can read about alternative ways of looking at this very complex market. I find it disappointing that intuition and charting, as well as other useful techniques, get dismissed so easily out of hand. "Not for beginners" doesn't explain the vociferousness of the dismissal.

I'm not some reckless, chuck it in and see where the shit sticks investor. In fact, I've gone to lengths in this thread to caution people about things like margin and naked calls, etc. I mostly post here about my high risk moves, but don't get the wrong idea. I didn't get this far being lucky, although I have admitted that in the '08 downcycle I was mostly cash thru happenstance.
post #5649 of 5654
ARCP

crazy.gif
post #5650 of 5654
Just doubled my Fb position. Glad I bought today and not yesterday.
post #5651 of 5654
Lucky guy.
post #5652 of 5654
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

Just doubled my Fb position. Glad I bought today and not yesterday.

Good trading intuition. fistbump.gif
post #5653 of 5654
Lol stupid idnfl. It could have easily popped today too if investors thought the drop was overblown and I would have missed that.

I did get lucky, son.
post #5654 of 5654
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

Lol stupid idnfl. It could have easily popped today too if investors thought the drop was overblown and I would have missed that.

I did get lucky, son.

Like I said... you're a lucky guy.
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