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I've held AAPL since I ran a full DCF on it about a year ago.... I was always getting pissed I was missing rallies up and didn't think it could go any higher. But I used very conservative assumptions (growing at about a third of their average growth rate since they released the iPod in 2001) and still got a valuation of $750.
Personally, I have no interest in their products. But I have to admit that they've got a fantastic business model - they've got a simple lineup of easy-to-use and well-designed products, and since most people are pretty computer-illiterate they're more than willing to buy a well-marketed premium product.
Don't remember off the top of my head, but I did all that unlevering/relevering beta based off some pretty standard comps (hp, dell, msft, csco etc) and wacc was around 10%.
I do remember how I projected growth though - the trend in their growth rates was pretty apparent, since every time they released a new product their revenues would grow by 60-70% the first year and taper off the 10-20% by year 4-5. So I assumed they wouldn't release anything new for the next 5 years and used similar growth rates given that the iPad was just released.
This got me an insane valuation, so I started adjusting them down.
Half of their revenue comes from Europe. And search ad is still over 95% of their revenue. Do your own math.
Out of the market 100% now. Foresee big slide within the next 3 months.
Out of the market 100% now. Foresee big slide within the next 3 months.
why not stay in 10yr ust and tips? and if u are really that bearish, go for some vix futures or otm vix options? or short eur/usd or aud/jpy? or long china/short brazil and earn the spread?
or go full retail with 9999x levered short s&p etf?