or Connect
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Business, Careers & Education › Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 325

post #4861 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

That's where we differ, I don't care if I'm ahead of a change. I would continue down my path of buying when the prices dip, as I'm buying an income stream. If I can buy into and re-invest into income streams for less, I'm happy to do so. To be ahead of a change you would need to be constantly in the minority position which eventually becomes the majority position. I feel I can do that in times of fear and great uncertainly, but to be constantly doing that in all situations is beyond my ability. I also find macro changes very hard to accurately time, since both shrinking and growing trends can last much longer than what rational minds can project, since they are often exacerbated by irrational thinking.

I don't prefer to average up, but you're plotting somewhat randomly along the curve, so inevitably you are averaging up some of the time. In a regular trading account the dividend adds to your cost basis, even though you did not actually pay for it out of pocket.

I paid an average price $10/sh for WFC starting in Feb. 2009 buying through to Mar 2009, that was paying .05/qtr at the time, that's 2% at the time, however I expected the income to recover and naturally the price to come right along with it over time. It's currently .35/qtr so the return on that initial investment is 14% each year on the principal. I can't see why I would want to exit that income stream, especially since banks have so long to go before they are once again moving at a very slow pace in terms of upping the dividends annually.

Say I decided to sell out? What advantage is it? I have to pay cap. gains, taking a 15% hit on my gains ($43 of the price at this point), then go hunting for something that will earn more for me. So I'm going to take a beating of about 12% on the total price at this point, so that I can kill off a good income stream and go hunting for something that may not make me 12%, and may not compete with my current holding over 5-10 years.

Rather than constantly turn over old positions I prefer to hunt for places to put new money to work and let the old ones do their job.

The 2007 XOM trade was offered as an example only, the later example (2010) is my actual position.

Off-hand I'm in six different sectors, some pay heavily in dividends, some do-not, so it's not super concerning for me that they all pay dividends.

In general, I agree, the tax on capital gains is significant. I've never asked myself this, but on reinvested dividends - also taxed? I suspect not, but I have doubt. If they are not taxed,, then there is significant benefit to reinvestment. The dividend stocks, for me, are held through retirement vehicles, so it doesn't matter.

Given the tax situation, I agree with your strategy for the most part. There is no point in trading gains when you have to pay capital gains on it.
post #4862 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post

Just think about it this way, your money is sitting in stocks that could go back to even, but instead you could be investing that money in new winners.

Look, I know that innately, as well as a dozen friends tell me the same thing. I just can't accept the loss. I would rather sit on the stock for five years and make 5%, then lose 50 and make 200 back with another position. Seriously, it's like the kind of dysfunction you see in romantic relationships where the woman hangs on to a shitty guy regardless.
post #4863 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

When I first first first started getting into investing back in 2012, I read Seeking Alpha and though it was a semi-legit source of news -- well, for news it's not bad -- and opinions.

But I read the shit that contributors post now and I'm just like.. what in the fuck.

They're all fucking jokes and cannot be taken seriously.

I don't understand why Seeking alpha gets all the bullshit critique I see. It's just an opinion based blog, for lack of a better characterization. When you consider in the context, you scrutinize what you read a lot more, and I do that, and I will say wholeheartedly that I come away with regular ideas from writers on the site. I also get a lot of "who the fuck would believe this" stuff, but in general, there are a lot of smart people that contribute. This reminds me of all the criticism Bill Simmons gets in the NBA thread. Also, there are lots of CFA charter holders that regularly write on site, there is lots of intelligent commentary. If anyone takes it as anything more than opinion, then the site fails to deliver. Do your own research, it's true here and everywhere.


Okay, so I did my rebalancing today. I shifted 10% of my portfolio into dividend ETFs.

Yyy
Sdog
Pff
Mdiv
Kbwd

I'm well aware they may average down, I will be there, but in general, I was not weighted heavily enough into dividends.
post #4864 of 5922
thinking about getting into SPWR for long term solar energy exposure. These guys seem to be innovators in their space. Thoughts?
post #4865 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

Okay, so I did my rebalancing today. I shifted 10% of my portfolio into dividend ETFs.

Yyy
Sdog
Pff
Mdiv
Kbwd

I'm well aware they may average down, I will be there, but in general, I was not weighted heavily enough into dividends.

Nice! icon_gu_b_slayer[1].gif
post #4866 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

I don't understand why Seeking alpha gets all the bullshit critique I see. It's just an opinion based blog, for lack of a better characterization. When you consider in the context, you scrutinize what you read a lot more, and I do that, and I will say wholeheartedly that I come away with regular ideas from writers on the site. I also get a lot of "who the fuck would believe this" stuff, but in general, there are a lot of smart people that contribute. This reminds me of all the criticism Bill Simmons gets in the NBA thread. Also, there are lots of CFA charter holders that regularly write on site, there is lots of intelligent commentary. If anyone takes it as anything more than opinion, then the site fails to deliver. Do your own research, it's true here and everywhere.


Okay, so I did my rebalancing today. I shifted 10% of my portfolio into dividend ETFs.

Yyy
Sdog
Pff
Mdiv
Kbwd

I'm well aware they may average down, I will be there, but in general, I was not weighted heavily enough into dividends.

Half the shit I see on that website are from self-congratulatory fucks who start off their articles with "hurr durr look at my past article guise (link) where I said xyz would happen to this stock and by golly I was right!!"

They then conveniently forget to mention the 47 other times their past articles were completely wrong.

That and the die hard opinionated who say shit like AAPL will only sell 5% of it's iWatch to its user base because men view watches as status symbols, not toys, and children have tiny wrists that are still developing so they won't fit!! And other stupid bullshit like that.

All based on personal, qualitative conjecture.

That and the cherry picked data to fit each person's narrative.

It's honestly amateur hour over there and I'm not saying I'm a pro who knows what he's doing, but I'm at least self aware enough to say that I'm not a pro who knows what he's doing.

Every so often you'll see some articles with well thought out ideas and rational data points to back them up. Those are very much not the norm.
post #4867 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

Half the shit I see on that website are from self-congratulatory fucks who start off their articles with "hurr durr look at my past article guise (link) where I said xyz would happen to this stock and by golly I was right!!"

They then conveniently forget to mention the 47 other times their past articles were completely wrong.

That and the die hard opinionated who say shit like AAPL will only sell 5% of it's iWatch to its user base because men view watches as status symbols, not toys, and children have tiny wrists that are still developing so they won't fit!! And other stupid bullshit like that.

All based on personal, qualitative conjecture.

That and the cherry picked data to fit each person's narrative.

It's honestly amateur hour over there and I'm not saying I'm a pro who knows what he's doing, but I'm at least self aware enough to say that I'm not a pro who knows what he's doing.

Every so often you'll see some articles with well thought out ideas and rational data points to back them up. Those are very much not the norm.


Perhaps I naturally avoid the types of headlines you're describing, but I don't really see very many articles like that there. For myself, I'm glad it exists and I continue to gain an occasional insight from reading Seaking alpha. I'm not really sure it's any better or worse than much of the bullshit that gets written in a lot of magazines and newspapers. There's a big difference between something being well thought out and well written. I don't find very many pieces of information that are well thought out, but plenty that are well written. Maybe some people confuse the two.

Another guy that gets a lot of shit is Cramer. I'd be hard-pressed to name a guy that invests as much time into understanding the markets as he does. In fact, his analysis of rite aid a few days ago was excellent. Good enough so that I actually bought some on today's dip. He's not an oracle but he's often right with his picks and I do like to listen to his ideas.

It's a fucking sea of red today.
post #4868 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

Look, I know that innately, as well as a dozen friends tell me the same thing. I just can't accept the loss. I would rather sit on the stock for five years and make 5%, then lose 50 and make 200 back with another position. Seriously, it's like the kind of dysfunction you see in romantic relationships where the woman hangs on to a shitty guy regardless.

If you're not cutting your losers today, then you're basically saying you're willing to buy more today at a lower price point.

You seem to understand your irrationality of trying to break even, so it should make it easier for you to change, no? What haunts me most is loosing out the gains of stocks on my watch list because I wasn't willing to cut losers and move my money around.
post #4869 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by guyver00 View Post

If you're not cutting your losers today, then you're basically saying you're willing to buy more today at a lower price point.

You seem to understand your irrationality of trying to break even, so it should make it easier for you to change, no? What haunts me most is loosing out the gains of stocks on my watch list because I wasn't willing to cut losers and move my money around.

If being purely rational were such an easy thing, none of us would be wasting time on stylforvm.
post #4870 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by guyver00 View Post

If you're not cutting your losers today, then you're basically saying you're willing to buy more today at a lower price point.

You seem to understand your irrationality of trying to break even, so it should make it easier for you to change, no? What haunts me most is loosing out the gains of stocks on my watch list because I wasn't willing to cut losers and move my money around.

I never think about a purchase I didn't make which turned out to be a winner. I never even get annoyed by selling too early. I do, though, get annoyed by selling too late on a downturn.

I cut 2 losers today, PAY and NUAN, they helped me fund the RAD purchase from earlier today. So I sorta needed the online therapy of admitting I was being stupid.

The one position that's starting to turn bad apple on me is fucking DB.
post #4871 of 5922
I've got a stock floating out there that is such a loser that its not even worth the fees for me to sell it....The thing hit rock bottom, did a reverse split, and hit rock bottom again (trading on pink-sheets already so not like they would get de-listed)

The position is worth $17 now...which is a little more than exiting the transaction would cost...but I feel like the gamble that the company might actually turn out some successful research is worth more than the tiny amount of money I would get back.
post #4872 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by otc View Post

I've got a stock floating out there that is such a loser that its not even worth the fees for me to sell it....The thing hit rock bottom, did a reverse split, and hit rock bottom again (trading on pink-sheets already so not like they would get de-listed)

The position is worth $17 now...which is a little more than exiting the transaction would cost...but I feel like the gamble that the company might actually turn out some successful research is worth more than the tiny amount of money I would get back.

 

Now that's a story.  Hang onto that loser and maybe something will happen!

post #4873 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by lawyerdad View Post

If being purely rational were such an easy thing, none of us would be wasting time on stylforvm.

Yes, otherwise none of us would be obsessing about the different weaves of grenadine, or the thickness of the interlining of a tie biggrin.gif.

But for me, at least after reading up on behavorial finance, I feel I'm now less biased and emotional. Of course, I could just be an overconfident ape full of blind spot biases biggrin.gif
post #4874 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by otc View Post

I've got a stock floating out there that is such a loser that its not even worth the fees for me to sell it....The thing hit rock bottom, did a reverse split, and hit rock bottom again (trading on pink-sheets already so not like they would get de-listed)

The position is worth $17 now...which is a little more than exiting the transaction would cost...but I feel like the gamble that the company might actually turn out some successful research is worth more than the tiny amount of money I would get back.

Years ago I bought JRT, $3000 worth. The stock tanked and went OTC.BB, sold it for $12. I just didn't even want to see the listing in my portfolio anymore.
post #4875 of 5922
Gents, prepare yourselves for blood today.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Business, Careers & Education
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Business, Careers & Education › Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general