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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 242

post #3616 of 4621
I'm getting pummeled today.
post #3617 of 4621
JC Penny keeping me barely afloat.

Damn VALE just keeps killing me. Dad thought it'd be nice to give me a VALE coffee cup rotflmao.gif
post #3618 of 4621
Quote:
Originally Posted by seeldoger47 View Post

Also, does anyone know anything about a high quality collateral shortage in the shadow banking system?

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/09/15/bis-debunks-claims-of-global-collateral-shortage/
post #3619 of 4621

Thanks Cantabrigian, I've read the report and it didn't satisfactorily answer all my questions; I was really fishing for anecdotal evidence from market participants.

post #3620 of 4621
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

Lol @ yahoo comments. Some of the comments I see people post across all types of investment-oriented sites seriously make me wonder what the average investor looks like in terms of demographics, and how educated they are. Spooky shit.

Yahoo shows you "% of float held by institutional and mutual fund holders" which could be a decent proxy for stocks to stay away from. There is simply so much information out there that retail investors don't have the time or ability to digest, that the mere fact that they hold a disproportion amount of shares in a stock scares me. Retail investors look at things from the consumer side (do I like using twitter) not from the long-term income side (do advertisers like twitter).

Based on the tesla forums I would have expected TSLA to be one of those stocks that's being propped up by their clientele (heck, before I realized what the mkt cap was I considered buying shares instead of putting down a deposit), but actually the % of float held by institutions/mutual funds is 106% - I guess because so many people are shorting it?
post #3621 of 4621
Man, day 7 in a row down. Fuck this. Per my post yesterday and Ari's response... I think I've got too many momentum plays. I didn't think I did, but I guess I was wrong. I've lost 10% of my year in the last 2 weeks.



TWTR... anyone buying at this level is a tool. That stock is already below its pop price aftermarket.

I'll start averaging down at 30. I see no reason it won't test its IPO price at $26. Otherwise I won't touch it.

I actually had an order in this morning at 35, I thought it would be possible to make a few $ and get out, but no way was I touching 45.
post #3622 of 4621
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

Man, day 7 in a row down. Fuck this. Per my post yesterday and Ari's response... I think I've got too many momentum plays. I didn't think I did, but I guess I was wrong. I've lost 10% of my year in the last 2 weeks.



TWTR... anyone buying at this level is a tool. That stock is already below its pop price aftermarket.

I'll start averaging down at 30. I see no reason it won't test its IPO price at $26. Otherwise I won't touch it.

I actually had an order in this morning at 35, I thought it would be possible to make a few $ and get out, but no way was I touching 45.

Yeah stay away from this hysteria - the craze will kill you.

I am looking at this small mobile company in Australia that recently made a deal with Sprint in the US:

What do you guys think of the business prospects? It's called Mobile Embrace (ASX:MBE) and It actually makes money.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=MBE


There is also an Australian version of Square - a start-up called Mint Wireless (ASX: MNW)

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&allinfo=&asxCode=MNW

The two companies are valued at 65M and 100M respectively. Do these companies have a chance at hitting the hysteric levels that some of the NASDAQ stocks have done?
Edited by AriGold - 11/7/13 at 7:37pm
post #3623 of 4621
Just released.... explains what a scam HFT (high frequency trading) is....

post #3624 of 4621
There are many arguments for and against HFT.

For one, they add a shit ton of liquidity. Price discovery is vastly improved as well.

But in the end, I think the volatility it introduces is a critical flaw. They easily trigger short term run ups / downs, and at its worst, flash crashes.
post #3625 of 4621
Do they really though?
They are getting into and back out of these trades almost immediately...which suggests that it is false liquidity. If they are able to buy and immediately sell, then there were already a seller and a buyer ready to go on the trade (so nobody benefits from this liquidity except the HFT).

I don't know how much it really hurts though (well, except when it fucks up and causes things like the flash crash). I'd have to study it more, but it kind of looks like the biggest downside is that you have a bunch of really smart people and a lot of resources dedicated to what is essentially a race to skim a smaller and smaller amount of money out of other people's transactions. Those people could be doing something more productive to society elsewhere.

The little bit of spread that is lost to the original buyer and seller is so minuscule that it hardly matters, especially if the positions are held for any length of time.
post #3626 of 4621
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

Just released.... explains what a scam HFT (high frequency trading) is....

TL/DW

What's the scammy part?
post #3627 of 4621
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

Man, day 7 in a row down. Fuck this. Per my post yesterday and Ari's response... I think I've got too many momentum plays. I didn't think I did, but I guess I was wrong. I've lost 10% of my year in the last 2 weeks.



TWTR... anyone buying at this level is a tool. That stock is already below its pop price aftermarket.

I'll start averaging down at 30. I see no reason it won't test its IPO price at $26. Otherwise I won't touch it.

I actually had an order in this morning at 35, I thought it would be possible to make a few $ and get out, but no way was I touching 45.

What makes it worth 30 but not 45?

Genuine question.

It doesn't seem like the sort of thing you can put a number on in the traditional sense so just wondering how you got to >35 this morning and >30 now but at no time =45.
post #3628 of 4621
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cantabrigian View Post

What makes it worth 30 but not 45?

Genuine question.

It doesn't seem like the sort of thing you can put a number on in the traditional sense so just wondering how you got to >35 this morning and >30 now but at no time =45.

I'm not sure he is saying it is actually worth 35 or 30 in his eyes. He thinks he can make money off of other buffoons who think it is actually worth 60. At 30, he is willing to take the risk that those guys are out there...but at 45 there's more risk.

It didn't sound like he was trying to make a long term play on twitter...just wanted to cash in on some post IPO stock runup.
post #3629 of 4621
thats my interpretation as well. I generally avoid anything that does not have a positive number for EPS, so TWTR is not for me at any price.
post #3630 of 4621
Quote:
Originally Posted by otc View Post

I'm not sure he is saying it is actually worth 35 or 30 in his eyes. He thinks he can make money off of other buffoons who think it is actually worth 60. At 30, he is willing to take the risk that those guys are out there...but at 45 there's more risk.

It didn't sound like he was trying to make a long term play on twitter...just wanted to cash in on some post IPO stock runup.

An order placed for 35 before it traded makes sense. Why not since these things usually pop.

But now that you've gotten that out of the way, why 30 but not 45. Hard to have much of a sense of levels of demand for a stock that hasn't traded for more than 24 hours.

The lemmings ran off the cliff right away. Why should they reappear 7 points lower?
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