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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 223

post #3331 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by Concordia View Post

SMLP-- a newish energy MLP created by a very fine private equity shop that has every incentive to make its distributions and share price grow.
So far so good. Not sure if the market has recognized everything that might be happening soon or not. But I'm up about 55% from purchase in the listed stock.

MLPs are interesting beasts. The accounting can be really complex, but one thing to remember is that the GP has a huge incentive to increase distributions after the IPO. That usually means that MLPs will go public as early as possible, with a lot of cheap assets not yet ladled onto its balance sheet. In the early days, when the sponsor still holds a large piece of the LP interest as well as the GP, that means that management is very much on your side.
post #3332 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by seeldoger47 View Post

Does anyone else think US government bonds are starting to look attractive at this price?

Tend to think not.

If 10s are paying only 60bps more than target inflation and it looks like there will be a massive increase in net supply starting probably in Sep.

If you're looking at 2 or 3yr maybe.
post #3333 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by Concordia View Post

So far so good. Not sure if the market has recognized everything that might be happening soon or not. But I'm up about 55% from purchase in the listed stock.

MLPs are interesting beasts. The accounting can be really complex, but one thing to remember is that the GP has a huge incentive to increase distributions after the IPO. That usually means that MLPs will go public as early as possible, with a lot of cheap assets not yet ladled onto its balance sheet. In the early days, when the sponsor still holds a large piece of the LP interest as well as the GP, that means that management is very much on your side.

EMES is another recent MLP that I own, and another where the GP is a big owner and highly incentivized to make it rain soon. It's primarily a frac sand business.
post #3334 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cantabrigian View Post


If you're looking at 2 or 3yr maybe.


That is my time frame.

post #3335 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by Concordia View Post

So far so good. Not sure if the market has recognized everything that might be happening soon or not. But I'm up about 55% from purchase in the listed stock.

MLPs are interesting beasts. The accounting can be really complex, but one thing to remember is that the GP has a huge incentive to increase distributions after the IPO. That usually means that MLPs will go public as early as possible, with a lot of cheap assets not yet ladled onto its balance sheet. In the early days, when the sponsor still holds a large piece of the LP interest as well as the GP, that means that management is very much on your side.

Picking up a little bit of that...may add more later.

My AGNC shares have been beaten down. Dividend still seems solid, but questions about the fed and future interest rates have battered the share price. This means it is now yielding more than it was before (back up above 19%) so I am not going to sell, but it is making me wary for the future. The loss in share price has wiped out the dividends I have received over the time I have held it (I think I started buying it in 2010) but I can see it coming back if the dividends hold.
post #3336 of 5414
Well, levered fixed income is something to watch carefully in this environment.
post #3337 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by otc View Post

Picking up a little bit of that...may add more later.

My AGNC shares have been beaten down. Dividend still seems solid, but questions about the fed and future interest rates have battered the share price. This means it is now yielding more than it was before (back up above 19%) so I am not going to sell, but it is making me wary for the future. The loss in share price has wiped out the dividends I have received over the time I have held it (I think I started buying it in 2010) but I can see it coming back if the dividends hold.

I would be curious to how they would be effected by a change in the rate. Whats the advantage of owning a company like this over buying MBS?

I generally avoid anything aggressively levered, then tend to implode at the darndest times.
post #3338 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

I would be curious to how they would be effected by a change in the rate. Whats the advantage of owning a company like this over buying MBS?

I generally avoid anything aggressively levered, then tend to implode at the darndest times.

The advantage is the 15-20% yield it has had. The interest rate risk they face is that their short term borrowing window will cost close to or as much as the MBS they hold. At the same time, when the mortgage rates go up, they are left holding low-paying securities that they may have to post additional collateral for (although they would then be able to buy higher yielding MBS to make up for it). I think they had a presentation last year that said that a sudden 100bp increase in mortgage rates would knock their NAV down 10%. I have some friends who are condo-shopping, and the rates they are seeing now are a good deal higher than what they were seeing a month or so ago...mirring the decline in AGNC's price which was over 30 in mid-May.

They should be ok as long as their short term funding rates stay low and residential rates go up gradually.

Honestly though, I partially hold them as an alternative to owning my own highly levered piece of residential real estate. If I were to purchase a home, I would exit the position (and some other REITs) since a mortgage on a condo is the only high-leverage real estate instrument I need.
post #3339 of 5414

What's up guys...long time lurker here

 

 

Thinking about buying $KORS puts at these levels.. anyone have any opinion on the stock?  Doing some more homework now..

post #3340 of 5414

I told my fiancee I would rather own REITs than a personal rental.  Her grandfather was big into owning rentals as "it is better to own a hard asset than something on paper".  It has been an interesting time convincing her larger companies will probably do a better job than us at rentals as we are not handy-people by any means.

post #3341 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by otc View Post

My AGNC shares have been beaten down. Dividend still seems solid, but questions about the fed and future interest rates have battered the share price. This means it is now yielding more than it was before (back up above 19%) so I am not going to sell, but it is making me wary for the future. The loss in share price has wiped out the dividends I have received over the time I have held it (I think I started buying it in 2010) but I can see it coming back if the dividends hold.

I dumped my NLY shares last week. There seems to be a general flight from this sector, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. I basically broke even on NLY with the dividends I've collected over the last few years but its my fault. I saw it happening and didn't move out earlier when it was still in the 15's.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

I generally avoid anything aggressively levered, then tend to implode at the darndest times.

This. Those dividends are mouth watering though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by danL32 View Post

Thinking about buying $KORS puts at these levels.. anyone have any opinion on the stock?  Doing some more homework now..

I did a few quick trades on it in the 40's into the 50's and always made 2 or 3% each time. I wouldn't buy and hold at this level personally.


_______________________

In other news, I've been active lately. I was active late last year and early this year and sat on my positions to ride the upswing.

I'm out of DB to a very small profit, it just can't find any steam.
Sold BRCM, also small profit, no real movement.
Sold all my AAPL. I have a feeling their guidance will be weak. Sucks, I was one of the numb nuts that had AAPL 1000 written in stone. Still made out.
Sold NLY
Sold MDLZ

Added KRE, interest rates going up are going to be good for regional banks. Rather than target specific banks, I decided to go for an ETF.

So, opinions? I'm 122% up on STX, anyone follow it? I'm thinking of taking the profit.
post #3342 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by idfnl View Post

This. Those dividends are mouth watering though.
.
Q. v., "pennies and steamrollers."
post #3343 of 5414

I have also been long JWN since around 55 bucks... i'd love to lock in some gains/write some calls, but I believe the anniversary sale is a catalyst that could (finally) break the stock out...

 

-----

On another note... does anybody else think this weak China growth story is a little overplayed? It seems to me to be the story of the month. I mean, last month all anyone cared about was the Nikkei.. 

 

I'm long NKE; they have been doing everything right lately. Yet, their stock hasn't moved with their performance due to the China story. Thinking about adding to my position on a pullback. Some may think the stock is expensive, but I do not think their growth is stopping long term.

 

-----

idfnl--- KRE looks pretty good to me. I was thinking about buying some PBCT during the recent correction, but never pulled the trigger..

 

 

jbarwick- love VNO, but I am a little biased as I have been in it for a long time.

post #3344 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by danL32 View Post


On another note... does anybody else think this weak China growth story is a little overplayed? It seems to me to be the story of the month. I mean, last month all anyone cared about was the Nikkei.. 

I don't think you can believe anything at all out of China, good or bad. Its rigged to play the market for their own benefit.
post #3345 of 5414
Quote:
Originally Posted by danL32 View Post

On another note... does anybody else think this weak China growth story is a little overplayed? It seems to me to be the story of the month. I mean, last month all anyone cared about was the Nikkei.. 

 

Mercantilist nations do well during long and sustained periods of global liquidity expansion, but quite poorly when liquidity contracts globally. Putting the Hang Seng in a portfolio, for an extended period of time, seems like a five minute macro trade.


Edited by seeldoger47 - 7/12/13 at 9:23pm
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