or Connect
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Business, Careers & Education › Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 220

post #3286 of 4980
Quote:
Originally Posted by phreak View Post

Killed it last quarter..up 10% already this morning.

6% margins, revenue up 8%, 30M cash flow from operations (42.5M in all of 2012)

Not a stock guru but have a question. What is the payment source for their contracts? If Medicare and/or Medicaid you better be careful. Expect state Medicaid rates to be flat to down for several years and both sides of the aisle are going to cut Medicare rates to providers and probably demand more services, clawbacks, etc. too.
post #3287 of 4980
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piobaire View Post

Not a stock guru but have a question. What is the payment source for their contracts? If Medicare and/or Medicaid you better be careful. Expect state Medicaid rates to be flat to down for several years and both sides of the aisle are going to cut Medicare rates to providers and probably demand more services, clawbacks, etc. too.

It is my understanding that most private insurance companies don't cover NET and the majority of payments come from Medicare/Medicaid. Contracts are won at the state and in come cases, county levels. Last conference call the CEO took a question about this..can't remember exactly his response but I believe the gist of it was that Obamacare increases the number of people who are offered medicaid which would lead to more business for PRSC. Obv his attempt at a positive spin on the issue. Honestly i'm not certain how that nets out against flat rates.
post #3288 of 4980
Quote:
Originally Posted by landshark View Post

What are the thoughts on TTWO? They are currently at $15-16/share but are usually over $26 a share after they release a new Grand Theft Auto video game. They have a new one coming in September and I'm considering put some money into it.

I actually dug into TTWO recently..I'd stay away unless you think the next GTA pop isn't priced in (or sales #s exceed expectations) then could be a nice short term trade.

They lose money every year that a new GTA game isn't released, and the development cycle lasts about five years (GTA IV came out in 2008). Revenues this year will exceed $2 billion for the first time, thanks to GTA V, but will plummet by over 30% in fiscal 2015. Bioshock did have incredible reviews.

Do you know where to find "average price of games sold" historical data? Seems like the $60 or whatever it is pricetag only lasts like 3 months now
post #3289 of 4980
Quote:
Originally Posted by phreak View Post

Killed it last quarter..up 10% already this morning.

6% margins, revenue up 8%, 30M cash flow from operations (42.5M in all of 2012)

Another 10% up today!!

FWIW I had a target price of ~$23 in my mind before their awesome Q1 results. I'd revise slightly up based on Q1 results but the CEO made it very clear on the conference call that they aren't increasing year end estimates because of the one over-achieving quarter.
post #3290 of 4980
My big draw to TTWO with the GTA release is how much attention their games get from the industry news. Almost no other popular game (including the new bioshock and others) gets as much interest or attention for every screenshot, trailer, etc. that comes out.

I believe GTA 4 set a record for sales and I don't doubt that this new one will do the same. I can't think of any other game that almost every gamer has or wants to have in their collection (past and future mainline GTAs)

Long term I think its a bad idea, even their other releases dont do much for their stock.
post #3291 of 4980
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cantabrigian View Post

In order to hedge the put that is being written, someone will have to, at least theoretically, short the stock so that should be figured into the option price (basically an extra dividend rate in standard option pricing formulas).

That said, a Jan 2015, 18 strike looks pretty cheap if you really feel that strongly about it (envelope though it costs a cool 45 vol).

I have no idea what the company is worth myself.

I checked with a contact on the borrow and the current rebate is -39% (annual) right now. That said, it already looks like there is going to be a lot more stock for borrow by the time yesterday's trades settle next week. So I think we'll see implied vol drop by late next week as lower borrowing costs start to factor in. The shorts appear to be capitulating, which is generally the right time to get short.
post #3292 of 4980
Wow. If only I had bought TSLA on Thursday!

ffffuuuu.gif
post #3293 of 4980
My TSLA options are up 1383.31%.
post #3294 of 4980
Lucky.




Asshole.
post #3295 of 4980
Quote:
Originally Posted by gilwood View Post

I can see netflix going mid 200s. Remember all the speculation before they changed their sales model?

I did say netflix was going mid-200s awhile back. Dare I say higher now?!?
post #3296 of 4980
It peeves me to no end when people make claims on which direction a stock will move and then later say, "See?! I told you so!" if it does move in that direction.

Good job. You had a 50% chance of being right.
post #3297 of 4980
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

It peeves me to no end when people make claims on which direction a stock will move and then later say, "See?! I told you so!" if it does move in that direction.

Good job. You had a 50% chance of being right.

So then the question would be whether they're right 50% of the time or substantially more than that with a meaningful number of data points.
You can dismiss any correct prediction of an event with a boolean outcome -- not just stock price direction but sporting outcomes, whether a couple will end up getting married, who will win an election, etc. -- on the facile grounds that the person "had a 50% chance of being right". But the fact that a purely random prediction has a 50% chance of being right doesn't mean it isn't the case that some predictions are well-informed and/or well-reasoned and are substantially more likely to come true.

That's why Vegas odds on sorting events aren't always 1-1.
Edited by lawyerdad - 5/16/13 at 3:03pm
post #3298 of 4980
Holy crap...a lawyer whose math skills aren't limited to simply dividing by three. Quite impressed, Good Sir!
post #3299 of 4980
Quote:
Originally Posted by javyn View Post

Holy crap...a lawyer whose math skills aren't limited to simply dividing by three. Quite impressed, Good Sir!

Lawyers can divide by 3? News to me smile.gif
post #3300 of 4980
Quote:
Originally Posted by otc View Post

Lawyers can divide by 3? News to me smile.gif

Divide by 3 or better yet, take a 40/60 split.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Business, Careers & Education
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Business, Careers & Education › Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general