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Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 205

post #3061 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenFrog View Post

Goddamn aapl makes me want to slit my wrists. Unbelievable.

Same here.
post #3062 of 5922
Thread Starter 
Just seeing what you guys would do if you were me.
Im 25, and just seeing how you think I should best allocate my 401k. I've been doing alright over the years, just want to see what you guys think.

Here are the choices through John Hancock
401k.jpg 58k .jpg file
post #3063 of 5922
Cramer's speculation that it was capital gains selling which was killing AAPL no longer seems relevant.
post #3064 of 5922
It's in no man's land right now. Earnings will run it back into the 500s or drop it into the mid 400s IMO.

Worst mistake of my investing life was buying a ton (for me) of AAPL at $110 and selling a few months later for a completely unspectacular gain. Who knew. The value of patience and going long was learned the hard way.
post #3065 of 5922
I don't own it, not really in my spectrum of investments. I do find it amusing to watch however. I feel like it's the bandwagon stock because even people who do not have the faintest interest in investing in stocks in general are talking about opening a brokerage and buying it...you start to wonder about the value of it.

I think there is a good company behind it, but alot of the upward momentum on this stock last year was bandwagoning.
post #3066 of 5922
so initiated CLF today, paid 36.77, will add if it drops below 30 before their report on the 11th.

Also very long in DMND around 13.50

Did not sell HLF (bought it at $35 right before Ackman's sales pitch), averaged down at $27, unfortunately did not double my position, just added another 50% to my holding so my cost is about $32 when I could have gotten it down under $30.
post #3067 of 5922
I know zip about stocks but in terms of general advice, don't waste your time with money you lost or money you could have made so long as you followed your system.

If you made a decision according to your method of analyzing markets and were disciplined about how you managed the risk, it was a good trade.

if your target was 400 and you chopped it when you made a fraction of that because bird in the hand and all of that, then that was a bad trade.
post #3068 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by edmorel View Post

so initiated CLF today, paid 36.77, will add if it drops below 30 before their report on the 11th.

Had this one from ~41.50 or something until it peaked in the low 100s after earnings a long time ago. Did not sell all of it baldy[1].gif I'm hoping that better data out of China in recent weeks and the uptick in iron ore prices going back to September bodes well...if I'm not mistaken there was a sell-off last time around.
post #3069 of 5922

It gets harder to make more money out of investing if the company is really big. It's a lot easier for a 1 billion dollar company to grow to 2 billions than it is for a company that's worth 10 billion dollars to grow to 20 billion dollars. 

 

Warren Buffett's style has changed, because if you have an incredible amount of money you don't have as much choice to invest. I'm not sure how this works exactly though. 

 

Buffett's style is definitely value investing, but instead of buying cheap, he buys 'good' and big companies.

 

If you want to know more about value investing, I would recommend 'The Intelligent Investor' by Benjamin Graham. Buffett used to work for Ben Graham,.  

post #3070 of 5922
Don't have a position but do have a morbid fascination with the HLF drama.

I read Ackman's full ppt and then saw this today-- Notes on visiting an Herbalife nutrition club in Queens

A highlight (and this wasn't even what Daniel Loeb had to say)
Quote:
Originally Posted by catty but overall sound 
What this has (deservedly) become is the story about how Bill Ackman can be so wrong. He spent (by his own admission) a year and a half analysing this company and his thesis can be falsified by visiting a few clubs in his home city. Bill Ackman's thesis is the most easily falsified bear-thesis I have seen from a major hedge fund ever.

You have to wonder how this happened. So I am going to tell you:

Bill Ackman a Harvard educated (magna cum laude) billionaire New York hedge fund manager bet over a billion dollars on a short position (imperilling his fund and his reputation) without checking the facts.

And he did not check the facts because he was so rigid with a misplaced silver spoon that he could not stoop to sit on a subway for thirty minutes and talk with poor people for ninety minutes.
post #3071 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by ac21686 View Post

Had this one from ~41.50 or something until it peaked in the low 100s after earnings a long time ago. Did not sell all of it baldy[1].gif I'm hoping that better data out of China in recent weeks and the uptick in iron ore prices going back to September bodes well...if I'm not mistaken there was a sell-off last time around.

Yeah, the uptick in iron ore prices (which CLF stock has not really reflected) and the improving china outlook combines with the somewhat negative outlook on CLF by the street is what I am counting on, but if the stock reports a bad quarter it will go back down to 28 or so. I'm just looking to squeeze out 7-10 points, if it drop to thye $30 range prior to earnings I'll probably double up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cantabrigian View Post

Don't have a position but do have a morbid fascination with the HLF drama.

I read Ackman's full ppt and then saw this today-- Notes on visiting an Herbalife nutrition club in Queens

A highlight (and this wasn't even what Daniel Loeb had to say)

This whole Ackman thing with HLF is very bizzare. He had to realize that even thought most MLM companies are awful for distributors (Amway, Avon etc), that doesn't make them a zero. Also, his whole presentation around this thing has been about as cheesy as an HLF recruiting presentation. Never seen a short position publicized as he has done. He could be 100% correct that this company will eventually be worthless (more likely the worse case scenario is a re-evaluation of the business/model valuation of these companies) but by going so public and saying that he expects it to go to zero, he has painted himself into a corner. This is a company that can come out and declare a $3-4 special dividend or some kind of dutch auction/share buyback and put his nuts in a vise. He says he is donating profits to charity, but how can he do that? If the stock goes to zero and he makes $1bln profit, he's just going to forego his fiduciary responsiblity to his investors or he is going to take the money out of his pocket confused.gif I don't really understand his angle and he is now up against some real bulldogs in Loeb and CEO Johnson. The government could still come in and shut HLF down, although they haven't in the last 30 years. The SEC could find something, not sure what. But its shocking that he would base such a large investment on government action.
post #3072 of 5922
I agree with your larger point on gov't action. I can't imagine [whoever are the 5 agencies that regulate MLMs] rushing to shut this thing down just because a HF manager who stands to make a killing tells them to. For one, as you hinted, they'll look like idiots and, two, even if it's shady, more jobs > no jobs as a political consideration.

But Ackman's not overly dogmatic (Target, GGP) so I don't think he's too worried about being painted into a corner. His out is - theshouldld have shut this thing down but they're lazy / incompetent so I'ma GTFO. And if it pans out, awesome - his fund makes a killing and he donates his share of the profits to chain letter victims or whatever.
post #3073 of 5922

Really interesting discussion in the comments by experts on MLMs.

 

Loeb's HLF long case.

 

Ackman thinks the shares will go to zero because it is a fraud. HLF is a shitty company but it is not fraudulent. I expect Akman will be proven right in the long run, although I question whether he will be able to make it there.

post #3074 of 5922

Also, does anyone know who owned all the put options that expired shortly after Ackman made his highly publicized short thesis?

post #3075 of 5922
Quote:
Originally Posted by seeldoger47 View Post

Really interesting discussion in the comments by experts on MLMs.

 

Loeb's HLF long case.

 

Ackman thinks the shares will go to zero because it is a fraud. HLF is a shitty company but it is not fraudulent. I expect Akman will be proven right in the long run, although I question whether he will be able to make it there.

 

He was short MBIA for almost 6-7 years, with more years of experience and more money hopefully he should be well enough capitalized for his HLF short. I def agree with you, shady company, but don't think it's necessarily fraudulent or illegal, but in the long run if Ackman plans it correctly should come out on top.

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