or Connect
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Business, Careers & Education › Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general - Page 197

post #2941 of 4906
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

Apparently today black friday includes the buying of stocks as well.

$85 billion in portfolio rebalancing per month thanks to QE and operation twist, thinly traded markets, and its the holiday season. Kinda makes sense that markets are rallying despite deteriorating corporate profits and economic data.

post #2942 of 4906

Also the EUR/USD is entering the attractive to short range.

post #2943 of 4906
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

Zero debt is a warning sign to me. Often if a company does not take on debt it is because no one will lend to them at a reasonable rate.
Your approach to buying AAPL led you to disappointment, considering putting a negative spin on your analysis prior to buying the stock and if you still think it offers a good opportunity then consider it.

Well, RIMM's credit status is probably near junk. No surprise there. But for a company with no debt to have $2.3B in cash? That's an extremely positive story. And it's NEVER bad to have zero debt -- whether you're Google or some shitty biopharm stock that trades on the OTC.

My approach to AAPL has been successful since I first started investing in them last year. Every single trade I've made with them has resulted in significant gains, EXCEPT for this last one.

I've never had so much conviction for such a stock like RIMM. I'm this close to just going all out and buying on margin at this point, because I don't want to liquidate my AAPL position just yet.

Edit: As long as RIM doesn't drop some retarded bombshell like another delay in BB 10, then this should be smooth sailing.
post #2944 of 4906
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyGoomba View Post

Zero debt is a warning sign to me. Often if a company does not take on debt it is because no one will lend to them at a reasonable rate.
Your approach to buying AAPL led you to disappointment, considering putting a negative spin on your analysis prior to buying the stock and if you still think it offers a good opportunity then consider it.

He is all over the place, not sure what is going on in his mind.
post #2945 of 4906

As a uni student from australia looking to build a share portfolio over the next few years what books can you guys recommend as a must read?

post #2946 of 4906
The 10k report of any company you would like to buy.

I take a simple approach to investing, I buy dividend growth stocks and corp. bonds primarily, along with a handful of value stocks that I expect to mature into dividend growth.
Edited by SkinnyGoomba - 11/26/12 at 12:17pm
post #2947 of 4906
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevent View Post

He is all over the place, not sure what is going on in his mind.

The stock market is all over the place.
post #2948 of 4906
Quote:
Originally Posted by seeldoger47 View Post

Also the EUR/USD is entering the attractive to short range.

I tend to agree.

Interested to hear your reasoning.
post #2949 of 4906

My thinking is twofold. There are the fundamental reasons:

  1. If you believe currencies trade on fundamentals, the EUR is grossly overvalued; second only to the CHF of course.
  2. The Euro is a risk asset. Risk assets have proven a poor store of wealth over the past 5 years because the world's growth model has changed.
  3. There is a major short position in USD that is not widely recognized. The USD, being the international unit of account, is the most heavily borrowed in currency. It is this borrowing that causes the short. During inflationary periods, this is not a problem. But during periods of deflation, especially unexpected, this creates a violent short squeeze.
  4. The USD, will do nothing but strengthen. We've restructured debt, increasing the ability to consume, and the price of labor, increasing productivity. Then God intervened as engineers and scientists discovered how to extract oil from shale. We pay $3-5 per unit of energy, Europe pays $10-12 per unit, while Asia pays $14-16 per unit. This is a huge competitive advantage.
  5. Fixed exchange rates never survive because they are rigged by nature. They always break during periods of economic and financial stress. I realize the ECB has been expanding its balance sheet, easing the sovereign's credit conditions. But the fixed exchange rate is creating economic anarchy in the periphery, creating a new and potentially catastrophic trend.

And the speculative reasons:

  1. The EUR/USD chart sucks.
  2. The Euro's rally seems to be loosing steam.
  3. I don't see the price movement in the credit markets, both here and in Europe, that makes me want to embrace risk.

 

That being said I prefer to let the market run a bit more, before adding to my short. Hate to be the market's weak hand.

post #2950 of 4906
Like I said, I agree with the short term trade idea.

If you're interested in what I think, and you have every right not to be, here it is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by seeldoger47 View Post

My thinking is twofold. There are the fundamental reasons:
  1. If you believe currencies trade on fundamentals, the EUR is grossly overvalued; second only to the CHF of course.

OECD purchasing power parity shows EUR overvalued by a mere 3%. Using CPI or PPI you get something more like 10 - 13%. Those aren't large deviations from PPP and are sustainable.

In terms of trading for the short / medium term, I think it's more useful to look at distance from the 200d (or some other long period) moving average.
Quote:
[*] The Euro is a risk asset. Risk assets have proven a poor store of wealth over the past 5 years because the world's growth model has changed.

EUR has largely traded like a risky asset but other much riskier (in terms of volatility or correlation to the S&P or MSCI) have performed very well over that stretch.
Quote:
[*] There is a major short position in USD that is not widely recognized. The USD, being the international unit of account, is the most heavily borrowed in currency. It is this borrowing that causes the short. During inflationary periods, this is not a problem. But during periods of deflation, especially unexpected, this creates a violent short squeeze.

You have to differentiate between USD borrowing to fund dollar assets (if you're a foreign investor) and being short spot. Dollar funding needs aren't anything like they were in 2008 and in spot currency terms, the USD short position has been pared back a bit. Though I agree the risk is for a squeeze.

But futures speculative positioning data also shows a sizeable EUR short. In terms of positioning, it looks more likely EUR will rally.
Quote:
[*] The USD, will do nothing but strengthen. We've restructured debt, increasing the ability to consume, and the price of labor, increasing productivity. Then God intervened as engineers and scientists discovered how to extract oil from shale. We pay $3-5 per unit of energy, Europe pays $10-12 per unit, while Asia pays $14-16 per unit. This is a huge competitive advantage.

I'm not sure why you expect the dollar to do nothing but strengthen since it's done nothing but weaken except for the height of the crisis.

Don't forget, the Fed's balance sheet has expanded a lot more than the ECB. And our base rates are a lot lower and promised to stay that way.


[quotes]
And the speculative reasons:
  1. The EUR/USD chart sucks.
  2. The Euro's rally seems to be loosing steam.
  3. I don't see the price movement in the credit markets, both here and in Europe, that makes me want to embrace risk.
[/quote]

I agree that 1.3000 looks like it will be resistance. A downward trendline is still intact and the uptren from July broke a while ago.
post #2951 of 4906
lol @ GRPN tanking 10% upon the news that Andrew Mason will remain as CEO.

must make him feel so warm and fuzzy inside.
post #2952 of 4906
RIMM on a real yo-yo these past couple days
post #2953 of 4906
Any doctors in here? Or perhaps anyone who could give insight to the inhalable insulin market?

MNKD
post #2954 of 4906
amrn is shooting up again. take your profits now before it goes back down!
post #2955 of 4906
Quote:
Originally Posted by phreak View Post

Any doctors in here? Or perhaps anyone who could give insight to the inhalable insulin market?
MNKD

Would avoid it unless you want to take on A LOT of risk for a company that if it weren't for its billionaire owner who has invested a great deal of his personal fortune into it would probably be finished. From what I've seen, the FDA just does not like inhalants in general because of the different risks involved. The CRL it received last time around was not very encouraging as I recall and it dropped somewhere around 70% or so over the span of a few weeks. If you are comfortable investing in what is essentially a single drug pipeline that will make or break the company eventually (granted, if results that are coming out end up being good, the stock will skyrocket), it might worth it...generally when I'm looking at something with a limited pipeline and a potential blockbuster drug I want to see amazing trial results (a company I mentioned earlier, CLSN, is something that fits the bill for me), otherwise I like to see some diversity. This company IS Afrezza. It has nothing else.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: Business, Careers & Education
Styleforum › Forums › Culture › Business, Careers & Education › Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general